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Yes we had a run of Decembers that delivered a bit of cold and snowy weather of various degrees during the 2000s, with the exception of 2002, and 2007 (though there was a cold frosty spell leading up to christmas).

Dec 2000 - conditions turned cold on Christmas Day, and the last days of the month were very cold with snow in many places, the cold broke on New Years Eve/Day

Dec 2001 - a generally cold christmas period throughout, lots of freezing fog and hard frost, snow at times.

Dec 2003, a cold shot just before christmas with a bit of snow from a front moving in from the west, a short cold frosty spell after christmas, with snow on 2nd Jan

Dec 2004 - a white christmas for some, cold NW winds christmas day and boxing day, milder thereafter

Dec 2005 - an easterly just after christmas, snow for many, milder by New Year

Dec 2006 - cold and frosty christmas day, but the dry cold spell broke just after boxing day, milder towards New Year

Dec 2008 - cold arrived on Christmas Day, and similiar to 2000 it became very cold last few days, but unlike 2000 the cold held well into January, not much snow until New Year

Dec 2009 - very cold and snowy throughout

Conversely the 80s brought very little in the way of notable cold and snow in Dec, exception 1981.

The 90s were a much more mixed bag, sometimes cold and snowy such as 1993, 1995 and 1996, sometimes very stormy and wet, 1997, 1998 and 1999, sometimes dry and cold and frosty 1992, sometimes mild and rather drab, 1990, 1991, 1994.

The 10's so far apart from 2010, have been a write off for cold and snow in the main around christmas, exception 2004, 2007 which brought very brief snowy episode. This year has been woeful, ranking amongst the worst such as 2013 and 2015 thought at least been spared rain and floods or storms. 

Winter 18/19 has yet to start it feels.

 

Edited by damianslaw
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The December of 1954 had a CET of 6.8C and was followed by Jan, Feb and March values of 2.6C, 1.2C and 3.4C respectively. That is the only comparable solar analogue that went that way. Other bottom 20 solar years with a December CET of 6C or more were generally average to poor the rest of winter.

If forecast MJO and stratospheric effects transpire then it's possible January will finish somewhere near or a little below average so it will be all on Feb and March. 

2 hours ago, karyo said:

There is no denying that this December has been horrid and it is running 2.2c above the seasonal average!

Out of interest, how often have we had a cold winter month after a December with such a strong warm anomaly?

 

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49 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes we had a run of Decembers that delivered a bit of cold and snowy weather of various degrees during the 2000s, with the exception of 2002, and 2007 (though there was a cold frosty spell leading up to christmas).

Dec 2000 - conditions turned cold on Christmas Day, and the last days of the month were very cold with snow in many places, the cold broke on New Years Eve/Day

Dec 2001 - a generally cold christmas period throughout, lots of freezing fog and hard frost, snow at times.

Dec 2003, a cold shot just before christmas with a bit of snow from a front moving in from the west, a short cold frosty spell after christmas, with snow on 2nd Jan

Dec 2004 - a white christmas for some, cold NW winds christmas day and boxing day, milder thereafter

Dec 2005 - an easterly just after christmas, snow for many, milder by New Year

Dec 2006 - cold and frosty christmas day, but the dry cold spell broke just after boxing day, milder towards New Year

Dec 2008 - cold arrived on Christmas Day, and similiar to 2000 it became very cold last few days, but unlike 2000 the cold held well into January, not much snow until New Year

Dec 2009 - very cold and snowy throughout

Conversely the 80s brought very little in the way of notable cold and snow in Dec, exception 1981.

The 90s were a much more mixed bag, sometimes cold and snowy such as 1993, 1995 and 1996, sometimes very stormy and wet, 1997, 1998 and 1999, sometimes dry and cold and frosty 1992, sometimes mild and rather drab, 1990, 1991, 1994.

The 10's so far apart from 2010, have been a write off for cold and snow in the main around christmas, exception 2004, 2007 which brought very brief snowy episode. This year has been woeful, ranking amongst the worst such as 2013 and 2015 thought at least been spared rain and floods or storms. 

Winter 18/19 has yet to start it feels.

 

Glad you said in the main because this was south yorks on boxing day evening in 2014 and stayed on the ground for a few days

FB_IMG_1545905506514.webp

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We might end up with a winter of two very contrasting halves, the first - predominantly mild, the second cold and snowy? Who knows. 

Last time we had a winter like that was probably 1985/86 - though we had a colder interlude late Dec/early Jan. 

We've had a few winters which have done the opposite - 1981/82, 1996/97 and 2010/2011

Best time for optimising depth of cold is probably mid Jan - mid Feb when SSTs are lower, the continent is at its coldest and the arctic is colder, despite a strengthening sun.

'as the days lengthen the cold strengthens'.

Statistically the second half of winter is colder and more settled than the first half.

In the meantime - high pressure rules the roost, not going anywhere. Its a pity it couldn't have anchored itself further north, then a colder frosty spell would have ensued, alas we will get a taste of this come the New Year, but it looks like it will sink back to close to where it is now, though we will have imported colder uppers, so the current very mild conditions don't look like returning anytime soon.

 

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6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Oh dear, as soon as things look promising, another fly in the ointment appears!

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7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

He usually posts in respect of the USA. Mild USA but cold UK & Europe to come?

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2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

He usually posts in respect of the USA. Mild USA but cold UK & Europe to come?

Yes, someone in the hunt for cold thread has just pointed this out.

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Capture.thumb.PNG.1f67f16f65c35954f56894be64bc1951.PNG

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9 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh dear, as soon as things look promising, another fly in the ointment appears!

Maybe not mild in the USA could be better for Europe

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Manchester Winter Index is now up and running

Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 

2018-19: 4 (up to 1st Jan)

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

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5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Winter Index is now up and running

Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 

2018-19: 4 (up to 1st Jan)

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

Blimey it has been poor up to now!...lack of frosty mornings the big culprit me thinks

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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Blimey it has been poor up to now!...lack of frosty mornings the big culprit me thinks

Believe it or not more air frost so far this winter than the whole of the winter of 2013-14.

The index was just 1 by the end of January 1989. 

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So night time maxes then maybe? December 2013 was a tad cooler (I think)

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We reached an air pressure of 1043.9hPa today, making it the highest since 7th February 2012.

Strangely we also had rain showers! Odd to get anything in the way of shower activity with pressure this high. I imagine that doesn't happen too often.

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Snow fell at a few of my stations today that were recording over 1040mb pressure. Quite amazing!

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32 minutes ago, reef said:

We reached an air pressure of 1043.9hPa today, making it the highest since 7th February 2012.

Strangely we also had rain showers! Odd to get anything in the way of shower activity with pressure this high. I imagine that doesn't happen too often.

From memory early October 2015 climbed close to that figure too

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Cold is here and likely to remain and intensify.  What we see before us I anticipated to occur in Dec but the HP didn’t play ball, but as Catacol alluded to it was a close run thing....but it was a flunk.  

 

Jan 2019....should be back on track

First is a -10c reached in Scotland last night...Under a relatively innocuous set up for U.K....although the trough from Norway to Italy brings impressive widespread cold to mainland Europe so it’s on our doorstep.

From 7th we see that LP start to loop over the top of our HP, then dive sharply SE(I won’t be surprised if that is more snowy than anticipated).  This likely to be round one as we see further shots like this with more deep cold getting the mix especially when sourced from North Norway gets to us with another trough covering Norway to Italy in place. (Very cold and snowy period generally 11-20 Jan).  I don’t think we’ll get a Scandi HP until about 20-24 Jan, and then I think it won’t lock in for long as we get further PV displacement and further northerly/NE’ly flow.  Mainland Europe should get a very wintry month, I hope the troughs behave and are west enough to affect us with same weather....... 

BFTP 

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4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Cold is here and likely to remain and intensify.  What we see before us I anticipated to occur in Dec but the HP didn’t play ball, but as Catacol alluded to it was a close run thing....but it was a flunk.  

 

Jan 2019....should be back on track

First is a -10c reached in Scotland last night...Under a relatively innocuous set up for U.K....although the trough from Norway to Italy brings impressive widespread cold to mainland Europe so it’s on our doorstep.

From 7th we see that LP start to loop over the top of our HP, then dive sharply SE(I won’t be surprised if that is more snowy than anticipated).  This likely to be round one as we see further shots like this with more deep cold getting the mix especially when sourced from North Norway gets to us with another trough covering Norway to Italy in place. (Very cold and snowy period generally 11-20 Jan).  I don’t think we’ll get a Scandi HP until about 20-24 Jan, and then I think it won’t lock in for long as we get further PV displacement and further northerly/NE’ly flow.  Mainland Europe should get a very wintry month, I hope the troughs behave and are west enough to affect us with same weather....... 

BFTP 

Huh?  This is your post on the CET thread, from just 3 days ago:

"Its not happening, Jan to be average to mild.  HP never far away giving frosts but oscillating and mostly in wrong location bringing mild days between short periods of cold.

5c and 40mm

BFTP"

Bizarre.

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13 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

Huh?  This is your post on the CET thread, from just 3 days ago:

"Its not happening, Jan to be average to mild.  HP never far away giving frosts but oscillating and mostly in wrong location bringing mild days between short periods of cold.

5c and 40mm

BFTP"

Bizarre.

Aah the fickle fickle world of the weather enthusiast lol

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

Huh?  This is your post on the CET thread, from just 3 days ago:

"Its not happening, Jan to be average to mild.  HP never far away giving frosts but oscillating and mostly in wrong location bringing mild days between short periods of cold.

5c and 40mm

BFTP"

Bizarre.

Indeed it is, I never get anywhere in the CET thread 😉 and I’m surprised there weren’t any bites.  Now if you go back to much earlier in this thread where my LRF is it isn’t ‘bizarre’

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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