Winter 2018/19

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 hours ago, MP-R said:

Any idea why it went so wrong in 2008? That was a monster high to our NE!

It was one of the biggest misses and let down in history. I don’t know what made it sink.

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 hours ago, Don said:

But wasn’t other background signals completely different then i.e. La Niña, no SSW etc?

Let’s see if the current ones help more, that was one monster we missed 

 

BFTP

[jules216]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

On the few occasions we've had a decent cold spell before Christmas in the UK, it really has been special. Just after is as special too, given the passing of the festive period and the ensuing depressing month that follows. In some ways I miss the Decembers of the 2000s, nearly all of which brought a cold spell of some sort by Christmas or just after.

2000 - 23rd onwards and a snowy northerly from the 27th

2001 - very frosty from the 10th onwards, with northerlies just before and after Christmas, and a frigid New Year (shame about the rest of the winter)

2002 - easterly with a little snow around the 10th

2003 - chilly feeling at least but not overly wintry

2004 - snowfall from a slider on the 19th then the northerly with snow showers on Christmas itself

2005 - the intermittently frosty lead up to Christmas then the easterly and snowy breakdown in the last week

2006 - even this month had a foggy frosty spell around Christmas

2007 - a 10-12 day long frosty and sometimes foggy spell leading up to Christmas

2008 - cold first half then very cold frosty/foggy from Christmas onwards

2009 - say no more

2010 - say even less!

Makes this December utter trash and, so far, worse than the likes of 2006!

Yes what has been quite wintry December in 2000-10 period has been replaced by wintry mid Feb-mid March in recent winters for UK-IE

I did prefer the December cold fix though. What comes later is a bonus.

 

 

[BruenSryan]

6 hours ago, MP-R said:

Any idea why it went so wrong in 2008? That was a monster high to our NE!

Still ended up with this in April 2008.

[jules216]

This has been the weather profile since my return home on 15:12.18.  Plenty of sunny cold days and some 5 to 10 cm of snow yesterday.

 

[MP-R]

4 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

Still ended up with this in April 2008.

Lol, from an albeit totally different setup, but yes. Remember that snowfall, it lay for about as long as it fell then there was a brilliant convective week of standard April showers after.

Wouldve been great in Jan-mid March.

[Summer of 95]

SW England and S Wales have had an absolute horror of a month so far going by the stats: very wet, 2C+ above average, very little frost and extremely dull.

St Athan 142 mm, +2.8C anomaly, lowest min -0.3C, 16.6 hrs

Camborne 143.6mm, +2.4C, lowest +5.9C, 13 hrs

Liscombe 200.4 mm, +2.5C, lowest -1.7C, 9.5 hrs

Aberporth 110.6mm, +2.1C, lowest +0.9C, 6.6 hrs

Those sunshine totals down there would be bad for N Scotland. Makes us seem like we're getting off slightly, even though it still seems to have had a lot of wet cloudy stuff and very little cold. The Midlands and E England are at least drier and somewhat less dull, although still mild.

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html

[Norrance]

1 hour ago, Summer of 95 said:

SW England and S Wales have had an absolute horror of a month so far going by the stats: very wet, 2C+ above average, very little frost and extremely dull.

St Athan 142 mm, +2.8C anomaly, lowest min -0.3C, 16.6 hrs

Camborne 143.6mm, +2.4C, lowest +5.9C, 13 hrs

Liscombe 200.4 mm, +2.5C, lowest -1.7C, 9.5 hrs

Aberporth 110.6mm, +2.1C, lowest +0.9C, 6.6 hrs

Those sunshine totals down there would be bad for N Scotland. Makes us seem like we're getting off slightly, even though it still seems to have had a lot of wet cloudy stuff and very little cold. The Midlands and E England are at least drier and somewhat less dull, although still mild.

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html

Much nearer average overall temps up here at around 5C. No double figure temperature as yet in December with sunshine average and rainfall well below average. Rain total likely to remain below average if forecasts for the last week of December are correct.

[matt111]

Only 3 days haven't reached double figures here so far this month, in fact last night never went down into single figures and it's still 11.4°C now so I wouldn't be surprised if tonight doesn't either.  

[Summer Sun]

On 24/10/2018 at 10:26, northwestsnow said:

I see meteo france are going for a cold winter for the UK with euro troughing a plenty!!

 

It looks like the December forecast for the UK is going to be a bust

2c above average with just over a week of the month left

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

It looks like the December forecast for the UK is going to be a bust

2c above average with just over a week of the month left

Delayed

Its a coming, imho ..

[Weather-history]

On 21/12/2018 at 12:52, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It was one of the biggest misses and let down in history. I don’t know what made it sink.

 

BFTP

It didn't sink, it was pushed back by the Atlantic. It was just  too far east to have a lasting influence on the UK because the centre of that high was over Russia and not Scandinavia. We were lucky an incoming low pressure disrupted to allow an easterly flow to drag in the colder air

I recall Joe Bastardi at the time saying it was only a short term feature. 

 

[Nick L]

Well, regardless of what happens going into 2019, this December has been garbage for wintry weather across southern Britain. Near absence of frosts, no wintry precip in my area and it seems to have been very gloomy too.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I tend to disagree Kev, you need to look at it forming then it’s movement. Because it shifted S instead of SW the Atlantic was allowed in.  It’s splitting hairs, the point is up to 2-3 days before all models and everyone expected a direct hit

 

BFTP

[matt111]

Certainly has been a gloomy month here with very little sun throughout. No frosts at all either. Plenty of rain though.  

[Sunny76]

On 21/12/2018 at 13:12, jules216 said:

Yes what has been quite wintry December in 2000-10 period has been replaced by wintry mid Feb-mid March in recent winters for UK-IE

I did prefer the December cold fix though. What comes later is a bonus.

 

 

Decembers since 11 have been mild and boring. 

[Sunny76]

29 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Certainly has been a gloomy month here with very little sun throughout. No frosts at all either. Plenty of rain though.  

The worst combination of mild winter weather.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Decembers since 11 have been mild and boring. 

Expected though, Dec is a month dominated by the Atlantic, so is Jan, any dry window is a bonus, but they are normally timed for the night, then a frost, then wet and windy next day

[Sunny76]

54 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Expected though, Dec is a month dominated by the Atlantic, so is Jan, any dry window is a bonus, but they are normally timed for the night, then a frost, then wet and windy next day

Yes and this has been frustrating for my partner, as her work is outdoors. She’s not been able to work for a week because of it. 

 

[Seasonality]

A little update from your Warsaw correspondent. Happy Xmas everyone. I hear the UK has fog warnings, so travel with care all. Meanwhile, this is this evening's forecast for my location. After a pretty awful 10 years for festive weather in Central Europe we've got a nice old fashioned Xmas. 

[Sunny76]

Seems to be, the 2000s were a golden era for colder decembers and snow around Christmas time. 2002 was the very mild one obviously.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Stonethecrows]

On 24/12/2018 at 15:21, Sunny76 said:

Seems to be, the 2000s were a golden era for colder decembers and snow around Christmas time. 2002 was the very mild one obviously.

Unless you were one of the lucky ones and got a couple of sneaky sliders like we did in south yorkshire, christmas 2014 and again last year.

[damianslaw]

Yes we had a run of Decembers that delivered a bit of cold and snowy weather of various degrees during the 2000s, with the exception of 2002, and 2007 (though there was a cold frosty spell leading up to christmas).

Dec 2000 - conditions turned cold on Christmas Day, and the last days of the month were very cold with snow in many places, the cold broke on New Years Eve/Day

Dec 2001 - a generally cold christmas period throughout, lots of freezing fog and hard frost, snow at times.

Dec 2003, a cold shot just before christmas with a bit of snow from a front moving in from the west, a short cold frosty spell after christmas, with snow on 2nd Jan

Dec 2004 - a white christmas for some, cold NW winds christmas day and boxing day, milder thereafter

Dec 2005 - an easterly just after christmas, snow for many, milder by New Year

Dec 2006 - cold and frosty christmas day, but the dry cold spell broke just after boxing day, milder towards New Year

Dec 2008 - cold arrived on Christmas Day, and similiar to 2000 it became very cold last few days, but unlike 2000 the cold held well into January, not much snow until New Year

Dec 2009 - very cold and snowy throughout

Conversely the 80s brought very little in the way of notable cold and snow in Dec, exception 1981.

The 90s were a much more mixed bag, sometimes cold and snowy such as 1993, 1995 and 1996, sometimes very stormy and wet, 1997, 1998 and 1999, sometimes dry and cold and frosty 1992, sometimes mild and rather drab, 1990, 1991, 1994.

The 10's so far apart from 2010, have been a write off for cold and snow in the main around christmas, exception 2004, 2007 which brought very brief snowy episode. This year has been woeful, ranking amongst the worst such as 2013 and 2015 thought at least been spared rain and floods or storms. 

Winter 18/19 has yet to start it feels.

 

Edited December 28, 2018 by damianslaw

[summer blizzard]

The December of 1954 had a CET of 6.8C and was followed by Jan, Feb and March values of 2.6C, 1.2C and 3.4C respectively. That is the only comparable solar analogue that went that way. Other bottom 20 solar years with a December CET of 6C or more were generally average to poor the rest of winter.

If forecast MJO and stratospheric effects transpire then it's possible January will finish somewhere near or a little below average so it will be all on Feb and March. 

2 hours ago, karyo said:

There is no denying that this December has been horrid and it is running 2.2c above the seasonal average!

Out of interest, how often have we had a cold winter month after a December with such a strong warm anomaly?