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Winter 2018/19


syed2878

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
21 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Yep, the October issue. Incidentally, from tonight we've got access to the hourly EC data, as well as the brand new 06z and 18z runs, just in time for the fun season!

To sum up the latest EC seasonal, blocked and easterly December, anticyclonic Jan and then transitioning to a +ve NAO in Feb.

I wonder what March will be like?

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
11 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I wonder what March will be like?

Very March-like.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Well Mild easterlies will be on the agenda then...unless we get a rapid cool down of the continent :)

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

 not necessarily mild easterly December because it doesn’t take long for the continent to cool down  in winter month Europe can call down rather quickly given the right conditions 

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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
On 09/10/2018 at 19:01, Radiating Dendrite said:

Eyes down.......two fat ladies!

Please not. Winter 1988 was dreadful ;) 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
On 10/10/2018 at 18:56, Nick L said:

Yep, the October issue. Incidentally, from tonight we've got access to the hourly EC data, as well as the brand new 06z and 18z runs, just in time for the fun season!

To sum up the latest EC seasonal, blocked and easterly December, anticyclonic Jan and then transitioning to a +ve NAO in Feb.

Just how it should be - cold winter and a proper spring ! 

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

Most of you are not commiting to any forcast but those who have any comment are forgetting one thing,Rainfall. Here certainly we are still in a very dry period for this time of year and are overdue a lot of rainfall.It is much more likely to become very wet at some period than it is to remain dry That is not to say we wont have a relatively dry winter like we did in 1995/96 after a dry summer but the likelihood is we will all get wet.Hopefully that will be in the form of snow and not endless Altlantic fronts.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

The latest GLOSEA is out and it's pretty grim and somewhat of a downgrade to last month...

NOV-JAN...

October 2018 Months 2-4  Global Pressure

DEC-FEB...

October 2018 Months 3-5  Global Pressure

Only be JAN-MAR does the situation improve slightly...

October 2018 Months 4-6  Global Pressure

Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The latest GLOSEA is out and it's pretty grim and somewhat of a downgrade to last month...

NOV-JAN...

October 2018 Months 2-4  Global Pressure

DEC-FEB...

October 2018 Months 3-5  Global Pressure

Only be JAN-MAR does the situation improve slightly...

October 2018 Months 4-6  Global Pressure

Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

still time for more flip flops

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Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
22 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

still time for more flip flops

If I never see another effing flip flop it ll be too soon. Problem with London is they can appear at any time. 

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
On 09/10/2018 at 22:29, StormyWeather28 said:

Couldn't agree more. The slightest thing that wasn't foreseen when making LRF can crop up and has a domino effect to what happens after. For example a couple of years ago, A storm with exceptionally mild air pushed deep up in to Arctic circle. It changed the entire pattern thereafter . A week before it, no one knew it would happen. 

Are you referring to storm frank which pushed incredibly mild air all the way up to the arctic circle?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
On 10/10/2018 at 18:56, Nick L said:

Yep, the October issue. Incidentally, from tonight we've got access to the hourly EC data, as well as the brand new 06z and 18z runs, just in time for the fun season!

To sum up the latest EC seasonal, blocked and easterly December, anticyclonic Jan and then transitioning to a +ve NAO in Feb.

I would add that for the Euro the retrograding signal starts in November (trough somewhere near us and heights starting to build north east) and then pushes west (December looking best). 

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
12 hours ago, CreweCold said:

The latest GLOSEA is out and it's pretty grim and somewhat of a downgrade to last month...

NOV-JAN...

October 2018 Months 2-4  Global Pressure

DEC-FEB...

October 2018 Months 3-5  Global Pressure

Only be JAN-MAR does the situation improve slightly...

October 2018 Months 4-6  Global Pressure

Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

What causes all those blue anomalies in Antarctica, lower then average MSLP in that region= stronger antarctic vortex comapred to mean? It looks odd to have such a widespread anomaly

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

Further to the above from CC. Found this on Twitter earlier this evening. May give more support for ECM version of front loaded winter plus you have the correlation between -AO and -NAO

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The above looks fairly similar to my research output using entirely different parameters, will be posting a more detailed LRF later today in the LRF thread (which seems to have been dormant since last spring, have to find it back in the menu somewhere). But a tease would be periods of notable cold in Dec and Jan. Stormy at other times. 

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

Some encouraging signs it appears for a possible front-loaded Winter with chilly conditions. But, to be honest, this is how I feel Winter 2018/19 will pan out. 

December:

3229A746-BC4B-4EE6-9E2A-7ABE13B07ECA.thumb.jpeg.7dbde82438d3bf17f97e098057f1715d.jpeg

January:

3229A746-BC4B-4EE6-9E2A-7ABE13B07ECA.thumb.jpeg.7dbde82438d3bf17f97e098057f1715d.jpeg

February:

3229A746-BC4B-4EE6-9E2A-7ABE13B07ECA.thumb.jpeg.7dbde82438d3bf17f97e098057f1715d.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
On 12/10/2018 at 05:32, CreweCold said:

The latest GLOSEA is out and it's pretty grim and somewhat of a downgrade to last month...

NOV-JAN...

October 2018 Months 2-4  Global Pressure

DEC-FEB...

October 2018 Months 3-5  Global Pressure

Only be JAN-MAR does the situation improve slightly...

October 2018 Months 4-6  Global Pressure

Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

could hide a pretty wintry December in there ......

then I read a post further down ......

we already know ec seasonal is front loaded so those charts could simply be hiding a winter of stark contrasts 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Looking for a wintry January personally. Last winter it was the least wintry yet is the coldest month so would be good to have the coldest weather coincide with the coldest time of the year.

Likewise, no mild Atlantic mush until March please.

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Posted
  • Location: Wokingham
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny summers and snowy winters
  • Location: Wokingham
On 11/10/2018 at 23:14, Wimbledon88 said:

If I never see another effing flip flop it ll be too soon. Problem with London is they can appear at any time. 

think i'll wear mine today! 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Jamstec has updated for October it's a milder update for Spain, Portugal and France compared with September but remains below average for the UK and Ireland

temp2_glob.DJF2019.1oct2018.thumb.gif.83707315e7e835ef626630fc6de0890d.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Jamstec has updated for October it's a milder update for Spain, Portugal and France compared with September but remains below average for the UK and Ireland

temp2_glob.DJF2019.1oct2018.thumb.gif.83707315e7e835ef626630fc6de0890d.gif

backtracking like they did last year...

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
59 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So an early look at my LRF for winter 2018/19.  Before I go into it I want to say I believe a winter to rival a 20th century great will occur within the next 3 winters.

Let’s start with why I believe this. Following taken from Spaceweather in relation to sunspot count.

2018 total: 165 days (58%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%) 
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

I compare 2018 to 2007 = 11 year cycle going forward.  We know the winter 09/10.  Potentially we could get an 07/08type winter...but I think we are past that as one can see we have still got 2 1/2 months to go and we are 13 more spotless days already....I think 190 but 200 is not insurmountable.  I am also not of opinion of Gavsvid updates that this year ‘could’ be solar minima.  19/20 imo more like it.  And if it continues as last minima.....moving on from this year we could be in territory not seen for over 200 years.  (Interesting RJS mentions 1819/22)

El Niño (weak?) so not unfavourable 

Will the cold Atlantic to our West be of relevance?

As already posted as snippets I think winter starts early.  So overall theme I feel prevalence of northern blocking with Scandi Blocking likely to be a player with at times an active jet bringing in LP systems but ultimately failing to upset the rhythm of winter.

 

December - colder than average.  I won’t put too much meat on bones yet but after a wintry first half I suspect blocking to be in place approaching Xmas and then an Atlantic trying to push in against a cold block that won’t give way (period of note possible). I say it won’t give way as I anticipate January to continue with the colder than average winter.

 

January - colder than average - 1st 10 days earmarked for potential coldest temps of winter with cold block established over (if anticipated) snowfields are widespread.  I think mid and backend of January to be potentially very snowy with LPs attempting to take over the ‘general’ pattern as I think the blocking will be at it’s most vulnerable as we enter February

 

February - Average overall but wet.  I think the rhythm eases somewhat and we could see winter wane.  There is a possibility that jetstream holds on southerly track and wintry conditions elongate but Atlantic vulnerability I’ll call it.  

 

A winter to match a 20th century great over next 3 winters?...means I am saying it could be this one.  For sure imo we have entered a period going forward where we could be in the game for some serious synoptic patterns.  Serious cold and long is still very achievable and imo going to become ever more achievable.

As always, with blocking if in wrong place then is a blow out......and Greece etc are locked into an ice age and we are distinctly average, bland even a touch mild....but better to have prevalent northern blocking to put us in the game for cold.

I’ll add more with what I identify as ‘periods of potential most impact’ in Nov..... 

BFTP

Thanks for that, Fred...Here's hoping!:good:

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