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Carrying on the conversation from the other thread, in the right place, snow at any times nice but the problem certainly down here in the far south is it doesn't stick around long if you get any settling snow after mid-Feb with the strengthening sun and longer days. 

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in this country you take snow whatever month it falls  in it’s  not that common  for snow to last long at sea level whatever the month,and snow is more likely in feb and march than Dec.The point the original poster failed to mention.

Edited by SLEETY

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22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Winter 2001/02?  No thank you!

Edited by Don

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22 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

A little update, I revised my CET down to 4.9c.  

 

 

 

Yes, i think i might have gone a little high now myself.

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Excellent model output this morning. Still giving it a few more days before I get excited. What a great start to Winter if these charts come off. 

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

What's the point of this? They don't have a clue, and quite frankly no one does! 

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Met office 10 day trend video is out for anyone who hasn't watched it yet 🙂 

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22 hours ago, Bullseye said:

Massive ramp by government organisation over on Twitter?

 

Ha Ha..us Essex folk are the biggest chancers in the country

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December looks like it will be dominated by the Atlantic, I can't really see a way out of it until January. Weather has been depressing in Edinburgh lately, today we had freezing rain in the morning and last week was just non stop rain and wind. 

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4 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

December looks like it will be dominated by the Atlantic, I can't really see a way out of it until January. Weather has been depressing in Edinburgh lately, today we had freezing rain in the morning and last week was just non stop rain and wind. 

Are you sure that the recent wet weather was Atlantic driven? Also not much evidence to suggest the rest of the month will be predominantly driven by the Atlantic?

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Top ten analogue years (past twelve months previous Dec to recent Nov)

Sum of squares method (CET differentials squared then summed)

1. 1976 ____ 6. 1804

2. 2003 ____ 7. 1999

3. 2006 ____ 8. 1788

4. 1728 ____ 9. 1738

5. 1707 ____10. 1818

___________________________________________________

It is interesting that most of these close fit years were not recent. However, as a set of pre-winter analogues, the profiles are somewhat uninspiring. Winter of 1728-29 was relatively cold (Jan 1729 1.2). Winter 1788-89 would be the coldest (Dec -0.3, Jan 1.5, Feb 5.0).  Some other winters back in the older set of analogues were near average for the times. It is noteworthy that none of the best fits occurred between 1818 and 1976. However, 1911 was almost in this list. The more recent analogues are generally mild, especially 2006-07. 

We will have to hope that if we are on this track, the low solar activity will tip the scales back towards the colder side. 

Three of these years were a year ahead of a very cold winter (1739-40, 1708-09, 1819-20) so we're apparently in the hunt more generally.

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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7 hours ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

December looks like it will be dominated by the Atlantic, I can't really see a way out of it until January. Weather has been depressing in Edinburgh lately, today we had freezing rain in the morning and last week was just non stop rain and wind. 

there's a surprise, looks like a very wet, warm month, wouldn't be surprised at way above average rain, and CET, above 8C

dry mon-wed maybe, then back to rain and double figures

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6 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Top ten analogue years (past twelve months previous Dec to recent Nov)

Sum of squares method (CET differentials squared then summed)

1. 1976 ____ 6. 1804

2. 2003 ____ 7. 1999

3. 2006 ____ 8. 1788

4. 1728 ____ 9. 1738

5. 1707 ____10. 1818

___________________________________________________

It is interesting that most of these close fit years were not recent. However, as a set of pre-winter analogues, the profiles are somewhat uninspiring. Winter of 1728-29 was relatively cold (Jan 1729 1.2). Winter 1788-89 would be the coldest (Dec -0.3, Jan 1.5, Feb 5.0).  Some other winters back in the older set of analogues were near average for the times. It is noteworthy that none of the best fits occurred between 1818 and 1976. However, 1911 was almost in this list. The more recent analogues are generally mild, especially 2006-07. 

We will have to hope that if we are on this track, the low solar activity will tip the scales back towards the colder side. 

Three of these years were a year ahead of a very cold winter (1739-40, 1708-09, 1819-20) so we're apparently in the hunt more generally.

 

 

That doesn't sound like a very upbeat post Roger!

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It's probably neutral in tone because while it doesn't scream cold from the rooftops, it allows for a reasonably cold outcome. In any case, I maintain my earlier comments about what I think will happen this winter. 

There has been a real shift in the short-term model output (days five to ten in particular) overnight and the chances of a cold, dry spell have given way to more of a disturbed period continuing with quite a strong windstorm showing on several models by about a week from today. I don't see much mild air with this either, after it turns colder by Sunday into Monday, these new disturbances have only a limited amount of access to subtropical air masses and are mostly just recycling the cold in place over regions west of Ireland. I could see something like a sleety mix of rain, snow and hail blowing sideways in the maps on display this morning. 

Knowing that there's a high possibility of an energy peak near the end of the GFS run (21st-22nd) makes me speculate that the output we're seeing may continue more intense than shown after day ten, with some volatile weather patterns for several weeks. 

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9 hours ago, Norrance said:

Are you sure that the recent wet weather was Atlantic driven? Also not much evidence to suggest the rest of the month will be predominantly driven by the Atlantic?

Look again at the models 😂 to be honest, I'm not surprised, it is December after all. 

Last December was much better, around this time last year we had a low of -9/-10 here in Edinburgh and currents were predominantly north-western, bringing sunny, but frosty days. 

I was really hoping that the ridge would hold off the lows to the west this time, but the model runs this morning aren't at all promising. 

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Ridiculously mild start to December here, temperature didn't get below 11c last night!! - looks like this way for the next couple of days until colder conditions next week but nothing noteworthy (a decent frost would be a start). Uphill struggle already to get that CET back down to near normal...well we're hearing promise for this winter which generally seems to be regarded as now a back loaded if not January/February affair...but before now there were a number on here believing this month was generally going to be cold...hhmmm

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16 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Ridiculously mild start to December here, temperature didn't get below 11c last night!! - looks like this way for the next couple of days until colder conditions next week but nothing noteworthy (a decent frost would be a start). Uphill struggle already to get that CET back down to near normal...well we're hearing promise for this winter which generally seems to be regarded as now a back loaded if not January/February affair...but before now there were a number on here believing this month was generally going to be cold...hhmmm

Are you sure, mean here is 5.4C only +1.4C - fairly normal for start of a month in the end of the year to cool as it goes on.

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25 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Ridiculously mild start to December here, temperature didn't get below 11c last night!! - looks like this way for the next couple of days until colder conditions next week but nothing noteworthy (a decent frost would be a start). Uphill struggle already to get that CET back down to near normal...well we're hearing promise for this winter which generally seems to be regarded as now a back loaded if not January/February affair...but before now there were a number on here believing this month was generally going to be cold...hhmmm

Well I didn't, always believe in the Atlantic

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51 minutes ago, 4wd said:

Are you sure, mean here is 5.4C only +1.4C - fairly normal for start of a month in the end of the year to cool as it goes on.

Yep!...mean of 9.2C here over the first 5 days which has to be at near 3C above normal (not sure what the mean figure here is at the start of December in the South East)...big difference I believe between areas further north and the south/south east over the last few months. CET has come out near normal for September/October but certainly felt mild/warm here, can't ever remember going around in a sleeveless top so much in October.

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5 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

It's probably neutral in tone because while it doesn't scream cold from the rooftops, it allows for a reasonably cold outcome. In any case, I maintain my earlier comments about what I think will happen this winter. 

There has been a real shift in the short-term model output (days five to ten in particular) overnight and the chances of a cold, dry spell have given way to more of a disturbed period continuing with quite a strong windstorm showing on several models by about a week from today. I don't see much mild air with this either, after it turns colder by Sunday into Monday, these new disturbances have only a limited amount of access to subtropical air masses and are mostly just recycling the cold in place over regions west of Ireland. I could see something like a sleety mix of rain, snow and hail blowing sideways in the maps on display this morning. 

Knowing that there's a high possibility of an energy peak near the end of the GFS run (21st-22nd) makes me speculate that the output we're seeing may continue more intense than shown after day ten, with some volatile weather patterns for several weeks. 

Hi roger 

find you post very interesting your very good with your predictions when do you think we could be in a chance for a decent cold if so as a lot of people saying back end of winter what’s your thoughts to this ?

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