Winter 2018/19

[TEITS]

Incredible to think that on the 28th Feb last year the max temp in Peterborough was -5C!

[Mike Poole]

Incredible weather this week!  Another day scraping ice off the car this morning, and 19C here this afternoon.  So the winter draws to a close and there are two main talking points, in my next of the woods, the heavy snow end Jan, into Feb 1, and this heatwave!  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 23/02/2019 at 14:59, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think last summer was dominated by high pressure and persistent warm and hot temperatures rather then intermittent periods of exceptional warmth. After May there wasn't much in the way of plumes from Spain to bring the record heat. Plumes have carried some very notable heat in recent years with June 2017 and July 2015 especially being notable examples. In 2015 we only needed 1 day of southerlies to bring in temperatures above 35C.

If we got a more prolonged plume in the summer months I'm pretty sure we would break the 2003 record with ease. In 2015 the forecasts were going for it at the start of July (I even recall NAVGEM going for 43C at one point) and in August last year as well... only for the Atlantic to keep the heat away.

As for the cold over the US it isn't exactly a representation of global temperatures is it?

 

Wasn’t meant to be a representation post but that very warm or very cold here doesn’t prove/disprove enough.  Interested in the Siberian sector as they have also experienced well below recorded average temps so that warm blob seems odd but may be part of the extreme swings of the jetstream.  Also the Antarctica temp anomaly...they have recently discovered that they have underestimated cold temps.....so I’m sceptical re the polar regions be it warm or cold.

also NW America doesn’t produce its own deep cold pool....it has to come from somewhere just like other parts of NA.....it’s insane cold there this year.

 

BFTP

Edited February 26, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BlueHedgehog074]

Got up to 18.9 (well I guess you could say 19*C, lol) in this part in the end today. Truly is unbelievable for Winter. 

Will be sad for this sunny, warm, weather to depart later in the week.   Been nice and pleasant. Not the sort of weather that would be terribly out of place - even during a fairly cool, but bright, June. In fact, I think even July has seen some cooler days than what today has brought for a few. 

Snow hasn’t paid many visits here this Winter, so kinda of hoping March might deliver some wintry surprises, but hopefully with some spells of warm sunshine - similar to what’s been happening these last few days. (Warmer weather can clearly be a bit more likely in March with the longer daylight hours and stronger sun). 

It may just be me, but feels like people’s moods in general are somewhat happier during this type of weather. 

Edited February 26, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine

[Jo Farrow]

4 hours ago, Nick F said:

21.2C (70.2F) at Kew Gardens, last time 70F was reached so early in the year was 8th March 1929

That looks to be it for February.

850-1000hPa thickness 

[damianslaw]

Every bit as exceptional spell of weather as the events of the very end of Feb and early March last year - odd how we have recorded such extremes of warmth and cold exactly a year between - mmm both have occurred on the back of very strong SSW as well... not just coincidence perhaps!

The 27th Feb - 2 March 2018 was exceptional for the depth of cold uppers, the 23-27 Feb 2019 will go down as exceptional for the depth of warm air aloft, a deep rooted pool of low humidities and lapse rates - unusually dry air all combining together. 

I said in my post yesterday how we seem to be experiencing extremes from one year to the next in the same month over the past 10 years - here are some notable examples:

Nov 2009 - very mild, exceptionally wet, followed by exceptional cold in Nov 2010 - two very contrasting months

April 2011 - record warmth and dryness, followed by an exceptionally wet and generally cold April in 2012

March 2012 - record warmth and very dry, followed by exceptional cold in March 2013

Now we have end Feb 2018 into March, and Feb 2019 - not quite in the same league as the three examples above in terms of longevity of difference, the cold spell last year being cut short very quickly

July 2012 and July 2013 were also very contrasting months, the former very wet and cool, the latter very warm and dry

[Summer Sun]

Rounded figure highest temperatures in Spain

Fuerteventura airport 27c

On the mainland Bilbao got to 26c along with Santander and Seville hitting 25c

 

[Jo Farrow]

Last week we created chart 1, now a week later chart 2 shows the 3 broken records. The UK started February with an overnight min of -15.4c  at Braemar. What a month! 

[DAVID SNOW]

2 hours ago, Don said:

I’m pretty sure that will occur within the next ten years, if not five.  It could even happen this summer, although I hope not.  A relief from record breaking temperatures would be good for at least a short while!

I think the same thing was said back in...... August 2003....

[Summer of 95]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Every bit as exceptional spell of weather as the events of the very end of Feb and early March last year - odd how we have recorded such extremes of warmth and cold exactly a year between - mmm both have occurred on the back of very strong SSW as well... not just coincidence perhaps!

The 27th Feb - 2 March 2018 was exceptional for the depth of cold uppers, the 23-27 Feb 2019 will go down as exceptional for the depth of warm air aloft, a deep rooted pool of low humidities and lapse rates - unusually dry air all combining together. 

I said in my post yesterday how we seem to be experiencing extremes from one year to the next in the same month over the past 10 years - here are some notable examples:

Nov 2009 - very mild, exceptionally wet, followed by exceptional cold in Nov 2010 - two very contrasting months

April 2011 - record warmth and dryness, followed by an exceptionally wet and generally cold April in 2012

March 2012 - record warmth and very dry, followed by exceptional cold in March 2013

Now we have end Feb 2018 into March, and Feb 2019 - not quite in the same league as the three examples above in terms of longevity of difference, the cold spell last year being cut short very quickly

July 2012 and July 2013 were also very contrasting months, the former very wet and cool, the latter very warm and dry

February 1990 vs 1991

December 1994 vs 1995

July 2006 vs 2007

For parts of months, 20-26 Dec in 2010 vs 2011. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Came after a severe winter about 10 days before there were sub zero maxima recorded.

how's the index coming on? been frosty suppose might have gone less mild in ratings?

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Summer of 95 said:

February 1990 vs 1991

December 1994 vs 1995

July 2006 vs 2007

For parts of months, 20-26 Dec in 2010 vs 2011. 

Yes some good couplings there. I've only thought back 10 years. Nov 93 vs Nov 94 another good example, July 88 and July 89, Apr 86 and Apr 87.

[Summer Sun]

Just shows how dry a winter we've had

Huge moorland fire in Marsden shuts A62

A huge moorland fire has broken out on moorland above Huddersfield closing a major road. Firefighters are currently tackling the blaze close just off the A62 Huddersfield Road in Marsden Initial reports are the fire is some 200m x 200m – about the size of one-and-a-half football pitches

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/live-updates-huge-moorland-fire-15892363

[Derecho]

4 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Wasn’t meant to be a representation post but that very warm or very cold here doesn’t prove/disprove enough.  Interested in the Siberian sector as they have also experienced well below recorded average temps so that warm blob seems odd but may be part of the extreme swings of the jetstream.  Also the Antarctica temp anomaly...they have recently discovered that they have underestimated cold temps.....so I’m sceptical re the polar regions be it warm or cold.

also NW America doesn’t produce its own deep cold pool....it has to come from somewhere just like other parts of NA.....it’s insane cold there this year.

 

BFTP

The chart I posted was a forecast of a daily anomaly, the monthly anomaly for February is shown below. Some colder then average temperatures at the start of the month over Eurasia though recent mild weather has reduced the cold anomalies over this region

The same cannot be said for NW North America but the positive anomalies over western Alaska/Siberia are just as impressive. Overall the warm anomalies more then cancel the cold though. Any evidence Antarctic temps are underestimated? and Anthony Watts isn't a valid source. The models may struggle over the Antarctic and a few other areas where observations for data assimilation is lacking but that's it as far as I know. 

[A Winter's Tale]

3 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

Last week we created chart 1, now a week later chart 2 shows the 3 broken records. The UK started February with an overnight min of -15.4c  at Braemar. What a month! 

I wonder if this is the first month to have a high of over 20C and a minimum below -15C. Also Scotland had a record high minimum of nearly 14C - a range of almost 30C in terms of minimum temperatures!

[Weather-history]

9 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

how's the index coming on? been frosty suppose might have gone less mild in ratings?

Its around 45 atm

[Norrance]

It’s 17.9C in Aboyne just now and still rising. The recent Scottish record set the other day of 18.3C could go.

Incidentally the low last night there was -3C so quite a large diurnal range.

[Summer Sun]

Current top 3

Aboyne 17.9c
St James Park 17.4c
Yeovilton 17.3c

[cheeky_monkey]

15 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The chart I posted was a forecast of a daily anomaly, the monthly anomaly for February is shown below. Some colder then average temperatures at the start of the month over Eurasia though recent mild weather has reduced the cold anomalies over this region

The same cannot be said for NW North America but the positive anomalies over western Alaska/Siberia are just as impressive. Overall the warm anomalies more then cancel the cold though. Any evidence Antarctic temps are underestimated? and Anthony Watts isn't a valid source. The models may struggle over the Antarctic and a few other areas where observations for data assimilation is lacking but that's it as far as I know. 

i live where the coldest anomaly on the planet is ...right in the middle of that purple dart board..currently is on track for the 3rd coldest February on record

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i live where the coldest anomaly on the planet is ...right in the middle of that purple dart board..currently is on track for the 3rd coldest February on record

Yup a friend in Calgary has also been talking to me about how extreme the latter half of winter has been. More exceptional cold coming for the start of March?

NW Canada is the place to be for below average temperatures! Sign of a pattern shift later though? With the colder then average temperatures being focused further SE?

[Summer Sun]

18.9c looks to be the high today at Kew Gardens and Northolt

[Jo Farrow]

2 hours ago, Norrance said:

It’s 17.9C in Aboyne just now and still rising. The recent Scottish record set the other day of 18.3C could go.

Incidentally the low last night there was -3C so quite a large diurnal range.

Been up to 18.2C, it was a week ago it set the record at 18.3C. Crazy as the 17.9C record had stood for over 120 years. Day by day breaking, okay but a week of it. 

Very Hazy here today 

[Snowyowl9]

Equaled the February 1998 record here earlier,shift in wind direction to a SWly may of helped that.

15.2c max.

Edited February 27, 2019 by Snowyowl9

[Don]

19 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

I think the same thing was said back in...... August 2003....

With average global temperature continuing to rise, achieving 40C is more likely than ever.  Now that we have recorded 70F in winter for the first time in recorded history, I think mother nature is giving us a wake up call, rather than something to celebrate!

[Snowyowl9]

Tonight reminds me more of February 2008 when warm air rises up the hill,feeling warmer up there now,and cooler here.

A similar type spring like 2008 I would not refuse.

So the trend of around 10 years February unusual warm spell which started in 1990,next 1998 then 2008 now 2019.