Winter 2018/19

[kold weather]

Unreal! Maybe upto 21c today? Anyway this is a really historic day, first ever 20c in winter months, not quite as difficult as a 40c in summer, but still an achievement.

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

 

Sometimes we struggle to make 20 degrees here in the Summer. Strange times indeed.

 

[Mark Bayley]

The record goes! Still an hour or so of heating. A chance of 21c?

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

 

That is only 8C cooler than the highest official maximum ever recorded on the 13th of June.

Edited February 25, 2019 by Weather-history

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

 

With the record warmth happening right now, its worth reminding ourselves of the Met Office longer ranger for late February at the start of the month...

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UK Outlook for Friday 15 Feb 2019 to Friday 1 Mar 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February, however confidence is low. The weather is likely to be a mixture of cold days with wintry showers, and more persistently wet days when Atlantic fronts bring rain and milder interludes across the UK. Towards late February there is the possibility of a colder spell brought to the UK by winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder wetter weather will continue to arrive from the Atlantic.

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An epic failure of forecasting and another reminder that the Met Office are no better at forecasting than some amateurs.

[Summer of 95]

Air frost here last night and foggy... Beautifully sunny now but still "only" 14C. 

Trawsgoed got the November record back in 2015 iirc, on a day when here was murky all day and 10C.. It seems to do well in anticyclonic winter setups while the North Wales coast is warmest in SW airflows. We never seem to get any kind of fohn effects here despite being next to the Welsh mountains as well, maybe because the highest ground is NW of here.

21, 22 even at Trawsgoed today? 

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

We've done it!!!

20.3c in Trawsgoed

The 1st ever 20c day in winter

Talk about a 'back-loaded' winter...? It even got the burning end of the cigar!

[March]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Talk about a 'back-loaded' winter...? It even got the burning end of the cigar!

It was still back loaded, it’s just the load wasn’t what was expected 

[kold weather]

23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, despite a plethora of long-term records having already fallen, the current warm spell is nothing out of the ordinary...Well, according to those who said 15C was 'impossible', anywho!

Well it was quite obvious based on the models that we were going to be a very mild spell. 

As per normal the models we're broadly 2-3c too low with temperatures in the prime zone of hearing.

[BornFromTheVoid]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well it was quite obvious based on the models that we were going to be a very mild spell. 

As per normal the models we're broadly 2-3c too low with temperatures in the prime zone of hearing.

It's odd. From tracking the CET, the GFS has actually overestimated the daily mean over the last few days. The minima have been 1-4C below forecast, while maxima have been 1-2C above forecasts.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

It's odd. From tracking the CET, the GFS has actually overestimated the daily mean over the last few days. The minima have been 1-4C below forecast, while maxima have been 1-2C above forecasts.

Yeah that is pretty common in these setups, the models do seem to struggle with these setups with large durinal ranges.

 

[mb018538]

Where are all the naysayers today? Head buried in the sand probably, because it’s february and more like June. It’s been quite obvious for a while now that the max temperature was under threat in this spell....lo and behold it’s gone. 

[Weather-history]

Manchester Airport is up to 17C

 

[Jo Farrow]

37 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

We've done it!!!

20.3c in Trawsgoed

The 1st ever 20c day in winter

Another record tumbling. 20.3 °C at #Trawsgoed, Ceredigion new UK's February record. It's also the first time #UK Met Office has recorded over 20 degrees in winter. (winter = Dec Jan Feb) This week; #Scottish, #Welsh, #Jersey and UK Feb. records broken 

[kold weather]

I suspect tomorrow will probably be another 1c warmer overall, though exact maxes will depend on exact wind direction and extent of any fohn effect.

Either way solid chance of 70f tomorrow, probably a little lower on Wednesday though probably still as mild/warm in the south.

[frosty ground]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I suspect tomorrow will probably be another 1c warmer overall, though exact maxes will depend on exact wind direction and extent of any fohn effect.

Either way solid chance of 70f tomorrow, probably a little lower on Wednesday though probably still as mild/warm in the south.

That's not a beating of the record that's a smashing of the record.

I assume the English record will fall today.

Looking at temps around the UK the walesh temp looks an outlier compared to other areas almost a degree above other areas.

Edited February 25, 2019 by frosty ground

[Weather-history]

Extremes between last year and this year almost over the same period in the calendar.

This year the highest maximum ever recorded during the meteorological winter, last year the lowest maximum ever recorded during the meteorological spring.  

[Bristawl Si]

I'm sat in back garden now, admittedly in full sun, and it feels like early Summer, let alone a Spring-like day. What a contrast to this time 12 months ago. I love cold and 'proper' snow but i also love dry, warm and sunny hopefully the coming Summer will be like last year's.

[danm]

12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

That's not a beating of the record that's a smashing of the record.

I assume the English record will fall today.

Looking at temps around the UK the walesh temp looks an outlier compared to other areas almost a degree above other areas.

Yep, agree. Many parts of SE England already in the high teens. The Welsh records look very localised in the NW/W of the country to the lee of high ground (foehn effect). Quite similar to how Porthmadog kept recording exceptionally high temperatures last summer compared to surrounding areas. 

Edited February 25, 2019 by danm

[abruzzi spur]

19.9c in Reigate at 2pm

 

 

[Jo Farrow]

22 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

That's not a beating of the record that's a smashing of the record.

I assume the English record will fall today.

Looking at temps around the UK the walesh temp looks an outlier compared to other areas almost a degree above other areas.

Gone now 19.8C at Northholt 14:00  

Trawsgoed Foehn  https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9416-surprising-high-uk-temperatures-the-foehn-or-fohn-effect in the SE breeze

[Summer Sun]

XC weather showing round figure of 20c in Northolt now along with Trawsgoed

Edited February 25, 2019 by Summer Sun

[abruzzi spur]

20.2c here in Reigate according to the very reliable RGS weather station 

[Weather-history]

23 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

I'm sat in back garden now, admittedly in full sun, and it feels like early Summer, let alone a Spring-like day. What a contrast to this time 12 months ago. I love cold and 'proper' snow but i also love dry, warm and sunny hopefully the coming Summer will be like last year's.

Hmmm, recent early season spells of this equivalence such as February 1998 and March 2012 weren't followed by great summers. Even April 2007 and 2011 didn't.   February 2008 which was record breakingly sunny ended up being sunnier than the following August. You start to wonder if there is going to be a weather car-crash coming up...

Edited February 25, 2019 by Weather-history

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

XC weather showing round figure of 20c in Northolt now along with Trawsgoed

Yeah 19.8c, probably enough time to ekk out a legitimate 20c. Tomorrow even better shot at getting a few more in the 19-20c providing no fog forms.

Here we got to 18.8c, and it's felt like one of those late spring/early summer type weather spells. Only the 2nd time I can remember comfortably wearing a t-shirt out in winter, other time being Dec 2015.