Winter 2018/19

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

We would have been better off with raging zonality in terms of snow prospects, the bore fest of limpet High pressure that ended December and lasted much of January set to return next week.

At least with passing deep  Depressions you can at times have 24hr Northerlys or a potent North westerly with snow for the favoured.

This theory that waiting round for a limpet High to somehow advance our snow prospects in the longer term has been proved to be the nonsense it always was.

January’s mean slp 

where’s the limpet high ???

[Don]

I suppose realistically we are now looking at late February into March for wintry weather.  We have been taken for a ride this year.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

13 minutes ago, Don said:

I suppose realistically we are now looking at late February into March for wintry weather.  We have been taken for a ride this year.

some folk are yes, you've already had yours, been best winter in years hasn't it? you said before snow south of M4 is rare, 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

some folk are yes, you've already had yours, been best winter in years hasn't it? you said before snow south of M4 is rare, 

I had the biggest snowfall since December 2010 last week, yes and I appreciate that.  However my post was not a IMBY one and reflective of the country overall i.e. certain places like yourself have seen little snow this winter.......

[sunnijim]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

January’s mean slp 

where’s the limpet high ???

Maybe my definition of a ' limpet High ' is wrong? I'm not sure..

I am talking about the belt of High pressure that drifted around aimlessly between 23rd December and 18th January close to the UK, but in a position that left us with mostly overcast skies and little else of note.

Edited February 9, 2019 by sunnijim

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Don said:

I had the biggest snowfall since December 2010 last week, yes and I appreciate that.  However my post was not a IMBY one and reflective of the country overall i.e. certain places like yourself have seen little snow this winter.......

I am imby member, wrong I know, but for me this winter one of the worst in history, last winter one of the best in the m/e

for you I would say this better than '17-'18?

[parrotingfantasist]

This winter has been shockingly poor as regards to temperatures. Besides the shot of snowy weather at the end of last month, the entirety of this Winter just hasn't been cold at all. And you can see that with the daffodils and other garden plants shooting up like its Spring. Great thing next week will be 10/11C again.

 

Edited February 9, 2019 by parrotingfantasist

[summer blizzard]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I am imby member, wrong I know, but for me this winter one of the worst in history, last winter one of the best in the m/e

for you I would say this better than '17-'18?

The winter synoptically has not been bad in that despite the December CET it has generally felt cool and we have had more northerly and easterlies than most winters.

The problem of course is the easterlies have had a SE element (late November, mid-December, a few from sinking lows and one upcoming) and the northerlies have been too straight or too westerly.

Unfortunately there are some winters like 2006 which overperform synoptically and some like this winter which underperform. That's the beauty of the weather i guess.

[kold weather]

1 hour ago, sunnijim said:

Maybe my definition of a ' limpet High ' is wrong? I'm not sure..

I am talking about the belt of High pressure that drifted around aimlessly between 23rd December and 18th January close to the UK, but in a position that left us with mostly overcast skies and little else of note.

Yeah I suspect the first 15 days would look rather different on that chart, we did have a very stubborn high and that is CLEARLY represented in the driest January since 2006...

However pressure has for sure also been more below average since then due to the frequent diving lows...though even they weren't that wet really.

[bluearmy]

4 hours ago, kold weather said:

Yeah I suspect the first 15 days would look rather different on that chart, we did have a very stubborn high and that is CLEARLY represented in the driest January since 2006...

However pressure has for sure also been more below average since then due to the frequent diving lows...though even they weren't that wet really.

Actually i checked the first two weeks aswell  - first week, yes but thereafter not - memory is a funny old thing ......

[damianslaw]

I sense much frustration this winter so far, caused in part by the countless positive signals for deep rooted cold that have so far never come to fruition - alongside the Met office forecasts which have promised cold throughout but continuously pushed it back - an unlucky draw this year perhaps.

From my own perspective, we've had far worse winters for snow and cold in recent years, 16/17  was  poor, 15/16 far worse alongside 13/14, admittedly from a very poor base state.The run of good winters for cold and snow 08/09 to 12/13 has skewed people's expectations, which when we look at the 30 year run since 87/88 should in all honesty be held preety low - there have been a significant number of shocking winters for cold and snow in this context.

87/88, 88/89, 89/90, 91/92, 92/93, 94/95, 97/98, 98/99, 99/00, 06/07, 07/08, 13/14, 15/16, 16/17 - 14 very poor winters

01/02, 02/03, 03/04, 04/05, 14/15 - reasonable only 

That makes 19 out of 30 winters which I would describe as below par.

93/94, 96/97, 00/01, 05/06, 11/12, 17/18 - a decent set of winters but nothing exceptional

90/91, 08/09, 10/11 and 12/13 - good winters

Only two very good memorable winters 95/96 and 09/10

Edited February 9, 2019 by damianslaw

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, UK winters are getting milder, so obvious to folk I know too

Tom Martin Williams

[Don]

6 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I am imby member, wrong I know, but for me this winter one of the worst in history, last winter one of the best in the m/e

for you I would say this better than '17-'18?

In terms of snow depths, yes.  I've been thinking that had we had a beast from the east this year, I may have actually seen less snow, due to my location!  However, what would have fallen, would have stuck around longer, with the chances of top up snow events, but an interesting thought nonetheless.

[summer blizzard]

My own winter ratings would be..

Horiffic - 07, 14

Bad - 02, 08, 15, 16, 17, 19

Okay - 01, 03, 04, 05, 12, 18

Good - 06, 13

Real winter - 09, 10, 11

 

The winters of 2015, 2017 and 2019 lose out due to a lack of snow. They are really between the bad and okay winters.

[Sunny76]

I would have said the reason peoples expectations are high, is partly due to the run of colder winters between 2008-2012. 

Much like before the 1987/88 winter, many people were used to seeing snow every other year for the previous 10 years, bar a couple of snowless years.

Since 2013/14, we’ve returned to the milder phase, although 17/18 did produce more interesting winter weather. 

Despite the disappointing 18/19 winter, I’m still fairly optimistic a harsh one is coming in the next 1-2 years. 

The uk climate has warmed as many said, but the one issue I’ve noticed is how dull our summers can be at times. 2018 and 17 were exceptional for sunshine. 

 

 

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index 

Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2018-19: 49 (up to 9th Feb)

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Manchester Winter Index decadal averages.

1980s: 93

1990s: 68

2000s: 53

2010s: ~76

Despite the non existent winter of 2013-14, the winters of the 2010s to me have felt overall more wintrier than the winters of the 1990s and 2000s and this is borne out by the winter indices,  3 of the 10 have got over 100 this decade. 

The winters from 1997-98 to 2007-08 were really mediocre, the average for that period was about 46, the next subsequent 11 winters have averaged about 79 and that includes the non existent winter of 2013-14.

 

 

 

[damianslaw]

Re- above post, winter 18/19 certainly moving up the rankings thanks to last week - which was a very wintry week all round for many, with low means and lots of snow. The next week however, isn't going to help move it further up the rankings - a bit of frost only. A colder wintry end though would help nudge it into a respectable position.

As others have said, at least it has felt like winter at times, unlike 13/14 and 15/16 which just felt like a long November.

[Snowyowl9]

First snow showed up end of October this time and sharp frost great start.

November we had an easterly a few more air frosts and some wet snow covering.

December later the wrong side of the high,better if we had a cold dry continental SEly instead of a mild dry SWly...the driest longest Christmas period on record into January.

January the best month of the winter with a sustained cold spell and snowcover lasting,not thawing in the sun,drifting on 2 days better than most 90`s atlantic full blown stormy atlantic driven winters.the stormiest decade of the lot.

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Re- above post, winter 18/19 certainly moving up the rankings thanks to last week - which was a very wintry week all round for many, with low means and lots of snow. The next week however, isn't going to help move it further up the rankings - a bit of frost only. A colder wintry end though would help nudge it into a respectable position.

As others have said, at least it has felt like winter at times, unlike 13/14 and 15/16 which just felt like a long November.

I thjnk 2013/14 was the worst one. It seemed mild all the way through, with long spells of wet and windy periods lasting for several days at least every few weeks or so.

15/16 was very mild, but I do remember some chilly periods in Janaury, Feb and March of 16. The spring felt chilly at times in 2016.

[Earthshine]

Frankly looking forward to next week's mild spell.  In the sunshine and temperatures in the mid-50s it'll feel wonderful, especially after the grey muck we've had here for most of the winter.

[Summer Sun]

 

[MIKE LEVITT]

this winter has been really tedious,about has tedious as watching England play football.

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

What seems to have scuppered this winter was ironically the after effect of the unusually strong but very slow downwelling SSW, its splitting effect being unfavourable with a potent daughter vortices lobe over NE Canada - just in the wrong position fuelling the northern arm of the jet and preventing heights from building to our NW - had it split into two pieces with the strongest lobe over N Siberia then a much colder wintry second half to winter would have happened and we would have got our negative NAO. Alas at least we managed a relatively cold wintry 2 week spell second half of Jan into Feb.

Traditionally the PV starts to wind down a gear through latter part of February - will it be scrubbed out when March arrives...

[Summer Sun]

The rest of February

Is winter over?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx?type=buzz&id=4712&title=The+rest+of+February

[cheese]

24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The rest of February

Is winter over?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx?type=buzz&id=4712&title=The+rest+of+February

Yes, and good riddance.