Winter 2018/19

[reef]

It has certainly been a dry period. We've only had 3.2mm of rain since the 22nd December.

What's even more notable is we've seen just 347.8mm since 28th April 2018. We'd expect around 500mm in that period on average.

[Summer Sun]

Quote

 

After a relatively mild winter so far, temperatures are going to take a dip this week and there are signs the cold weather could stick around for some time. As we reported a few weeks ago, a sudden stratospheric warming occurred at the end of December meaning the usual driver of our weather – the jet stream – is much weaker than usual for the time of year, which leaves the British Isles with an increased chance of settled weather and cold spells. Colder air will move across the UK tomorrow (Wednesday) followed by even colder air arriving from the Arctic on Thursday. 

Looking further ahead, Chief Meteorologist Dan Suri said; “Next week’s forecast shows signs of a reduction in winds from our typical westerly direction, meaning we are more likely to see cold winds from northerly and easterly directions later in the week.  This does not guarantee a repeat of “Beast from the East” conditions as some media are speculating – yes, it is getting colder, but it is too early to provide detailed forecasts on the potential severity of the weather or snow amounts at this stage.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2019/colder-weather-this-week

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, reef said:

just 347.8mm since 28th April 2018. 

That's very dry. 
Compared to the 336.2mm I had in November and December.

[matt111]

Yes it'll change after the approaching rain but I've had no substantial rainfall here since 23rd December. Only 0.6mm and that was all before the end of December. 

Just noticed even though I'm not far from @Mapantz I had over 100mm less during November and December with 234.6mm

Edited January 16, 2019 by matt111

[Summer Sun]

 

[Weather-history]

Timelapse of change from tropical maritime to polar maritime airmass

 

[Isle of Harry]

17 hours ago, matt111 said:

Yes it'll change after the approaching rain but I've had no substantial rainfall here since 23rd December. Only 0.6mm and that was all before the end of December. 

Just noticed even though I'm not far from @Mapantz I had over 100mm less during November and December with 234.6mm

Here in Thanet it's the same picture. Friday (11th) was the only day so far since 23rd Dec of any significant rainfall (1.5mm). The last time we had an incipient dry spell of this nature locally was back in January 2009. 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Bristawl Si]

He's changed his tune!

[Weather-history]

Overnight timelapse. Been some time, a showery airstream

 

[jules216]

Meanwhile in Slovakia

[Summer Sun]

Amber level 3 cold weather alert issued for North East & North West England.

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 08:54 on Fri 18 Jan 2019

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather between 0600 on Friday 18 Jan and 0900 on Wednesday 23 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Cold for many, and remaining sufficiently cold across the northeast and northwest for a level 3 alert, with overnight frosts expected. There is also the potential for some hill snow, mainly Friday and Sunday, and perhaps briefly to lower levels in the north. However temperatures expected to be slightly less cold than recent days in the south, reducing chances of thresholds being reached here. Despite this, further cold weather is expected to return to these parts during the coming week. There is also the potential for a band of heavy rain and snow to move southeastwards across the country overnight Monday and early Tuesday. However confidence in the timing, and the extent of any snowfall remains very low. This alert is likely to be updated Monday morning.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

London, South East & South West England remain Green which means no cold weather alert is in operation here

[damianslaw]

Winter 18/19 could end up being one of two very contrasting halves - very mild and snowless first half, followed by a very cold snowy second half (possibly). I posted a few days back the last time I think this happened was 1986, although there was some cold snowy weather end of Dec/early January, so that winter doesn't quite fit the bill.

I'm struggling therefore to name a winter that saw an abrupt change from predominant mild to predominant cold bang on mid January. 1946/47 comes close, the cold arrived a little later, and there was some cold earlier in the winter..

1983/84 not a bad call perhaps, but the mild wasn't quite as potent, or the cold.

We've had a number of cold first halves followed by mild second halves 1981/82, 1996/97 and 2010/11, good examples though the cold petered out slightly earlier than mid month in 1997 and 2011.

 

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index 

Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 

2013-14: 7

2018-19: 15 (up to 18th Jan)

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

[BruenSryan]

19 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Winter 18/19 could end up being one of two very contrasting halves - very mild and snowless first half, followed by a very cold snowy second half (possibly). I posted a few days back the last time I think this happened was 1986, although there was some cold snowy weather end of Dec/early January, so that winter doesn't quite fit the bill.

I'm struggling therefore to name a winter that saw an abrupt change from predominant mild to predominant cold bang on mid January. 1946/47 comes close, the cold arrived a little later, and there was some cold earlier in the winter..

1983/84 not a bad call perhaps, but the mild wasn't quite as potent, or the cold.

We've had a number of cold first halves followed by mild second halves 1981/82, 1996/97 and 2010/11, good examples though the cold petered out slightly earlier than mid month in 1997 and 2011.

 

Maybe the trilogy from 1953-54 to 1955-56. All had very mild Decembers and cold Februaries (February 1956 significantly so in terms of the CET).

Edited January 19, 2019 by BruenSryan

[damianslaw]

32 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

Maybe the trilogy from 1953-54 to 1955-56. All had very mild Decembers and cold Februaries (February 1956 significantly so in terms of the CET).

Yes - good call, certainly 1955/56..

[hillbilly]

23 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Winter 18/19 could end up being one of two very contrasting halves - very mild and snowless first half, followed by a very cold snowy second half (possibly). I posted a few days back the last time I think this happened was 1986, although there was some cold snowy weather end of Dec/early January, so that winter doesn't quite fit the bill.

I'm struggling therefore to name a winter that saw an abrupt change from predominant mild to predominant cold bang on mid January. 1946/47 comes close, the cold arrived a little later, and there was some cold earlier in the winter..

1983/84 not a bad call perhaps, but the mild wasn't quite as potent, or the cold.

We've had a number of cold first halves followed by mild second halves 1981/82, 1996/97 and 2010/11, good examples though the cold petered out slightly earlier than mid month in 1997 and 2011.

 

<1956

This year was marked by the worst summer since WW II. It was one of the wettest summers on record in the London region, with Kew recording 291mm. The record lowest amount of monthly sunshine was set this year in December.

January. After a mild December, most of January was mild or only slightly beneath average, with frequent SW winds. That was all to change however as the Scaninavian high built from the 27th. A low moving into the English Channel on the 30-31 brought rain turning to snow and very cold polar continental air behind. On the 31st, at Worthington, there was a dramatic fall in temperature from 7C at 8am to -2C by noon, with rain turning to powdery snow. Apparently many cars were immobilised by the freezing rain.

February. Very cold (-0.2C CET). A maximum of beneath -5C on the 1st in the Midlands was widespread; -6.7 at several places (e.g. Lincoln, Stone, Silsoe, Throwley). Generally a frosty month, with most of the heavy snow along the east coast. Many places had continuous frost from the 18-25th.

[Don]

41 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

<1956

This year was marked by the worst summer since WW II. It was one of the wettest summers on record in the London region, with Kew recording 291mm. The record lowest amount of monthly sunshine was set this year in December.

January. After a mild December, most of January was mild or only slightly beneath average, with frequent SW winds. That was all to change however as the Scaninavian high built from the 27th. A low moving into the English Channel on the 30-31 brought rain turning to snow and very cold polar continental air behind. On the 31st, at Worthington, there was a dramatic fall in temperature from 7C at 8am to -2C by noon, with rain turning to powdery snow. Apparently many cars were immobilised by the freezing rain.

February. Very cold (-0.2C CET). A maximum of beneath -5C on the 1st in the Midlands was widespread; -6.7 at several places (e.g. Lincoln, Stone, Silsoe, Throwley). Generally a frosty month, with most of the heavy snow along the east coast. Many places had continuous frost from the 18-25th.

If only we could have that this year!

[Summer Sun]

Updated cold weather alert

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 08:41 on Mon 21 Jan 2019

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather, icy conditions and mostly hill snow between 0900 on Monday 21 Jan and 0900 on Friday 25 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

This alert extends the duration of the active alert, issued on Friday 18 January and supersedes it. All regional alert levels remain unchanged, with the exception of Southeast England which is now upgraded from Level 1 (No Alert) to Level 2 (Yellow). The main hazards in this alert period are likely to be widespread ice on Monday night into Tuesday morning, as well as the ongoing low temperatures. While some snow is expected - including sporadic slight falls to low levels - amounts are only likely to be appreciable on high ground, mainly in the northwest. There is some uncertainty in the timing of relieving less cold conditions from the west late this working week.

The present most likely scenario is for a less cold blip of one or two days' duration from Friday. This should come before a resumption of widespread cold to end the coming weekend and probably beyond.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

[virtualsphere]

On 19/01/2019 at 21:56, Don said:

If only we could have that this year!

Maybe not the wettest summer bit though!  I wasn't around in 1956 but it can't have felt much worse than 2012 surely - wouldn't want a repeat of that...

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index 

Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

2018-19: 22 (up to 27th Jan)

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

[Summer Sun]

Level 3 cold weather alert issued for north-east & north-west England + Yorkshire and the Humber

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 08:54 on Mon 28 Jan 2019

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0900 on Monday 28 Jan and 0900 on Friday 01 Feb in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Cold weather is expected to continue to affect the country through the coming week with generally northwesterly winds, with the risk highest across the north of the country. Monday and much of Tuesday will be dry and cold for much of the country away from coasts where some showers are likely which could turn wintry and where icy patches are most likely.

A band of rain crossing eastwards across the country later Tuesday and into Wednesday will turn to snow at times to all levels with the some of the greatest amounts across the higher ground of the south and southeast of the UK. The cold conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the week, with bands of rain turning to snow through Thursday and into Friday, although confidence in timing and amounts beyond Wednesday is low at this stage.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

[Jo Farrow]

Update to Met Office warnings for Snow Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Notice different likelihood/impact on warning matrix for SE and rest of England/Wales .

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings 

Met Eireann have just gone broad brush wintry all week, particularly Thurs with their warning 

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index 

Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

2018-19: 33 (up to 29th Jan)

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262