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Winter 2018/19


syed2878

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

I'd agree other than the first 23 days of December - a constant durge of rain or showers with only brief respite. If anything, this recent dry spell has just balanced out the first couple of weeks of winter. 

We're at the stage in winter now where the Atlantic should be waning so any cold potential should also increase. Fingers crossed for next week onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Yes I had 124.4mm here up until 23rd December. Very dry since then with just 1.2mm over the last few weeks. Also only 3 air frosts so far this winter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammonds latest monthly forecast

  • Mild start
  • Turning wetter then colder
  • Disruptive snow risk later

Full forecast available to read for subscribers here: https://weathertrending.com/2019/01/11/john-hammond-month-ahead-fed-waiting/

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: anticyclonic unless a snow storm
  • Location: Coventry

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46835677

 

Plenty of snow not so far away.  My feeling has altered now.  We will get hit.. hopefully this month, by a widespread big fall.  Keep faith folks.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

The last time I recorded an air frost was the morning of Nov 2nd. Woeful but hopefully the second half of the this winter will make up for it. 

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
51 minutes ago, sundog said:

The last time I recorded an air frost was the morning of Nov 2nd. Woeful but hopefully the second half of the this winter will make up for it. 

Last time i did not record an air frost was the first week in September.

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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia

It's been snowing here every day since I came back on Tuesday, though there have been thaws (without which I'd probably be buried by now - I can well imagine there being metres of snow in the Alps). Maximum depth has been 20-25cm; now it's more like 15cm in undisturbed areas with more coming down.

I'm going to head up to the nearby hills (about 500m) tomorrow to see what it's like. I've been up there before when there's been half a metre lying with virtually nothing lower down.

 

Edited by AderynCoch
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
7 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

It's been snowing here every day since I came back on Tuesday, though there have been thaws (without which I'd probably be buried by now - I can well imagine there being metres of snow in the Alps). Maximum depth has been 20-25cm; now it's more like 15cm in undisturbed areas with more coming down.

I'm going to head up to the nearby hills (about 500m) tomorrow to see what it's like. I've been up there before when there's been half a metre lying with virtually nothing lower down.

 

I'm heading Bratislava direction today.Western side of SK got so much more dumping than us in eastern half,only about 6cm here near Kosice. but its been cold crispy so far  here which is great.no sign of Euro high which is great

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I don't have the stats, but I suspect they will back up the fact that the second half of winter on average is colder than the first half, and much more likely to deliver more frost - namely because it tends to be a calmer period, with less in the way of atlantic weather. 

'as the days lengthen the cold strengthens'..

 

December it seems is fast becoming more of an autumnal month, and March more of a winter month..

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
17 hours ago, damianslaw said:

December it seems is fast becoming more of an autumnal month, and March more of a winter month..

Certainly seems so, though we were spolied with some nice wintry Decembers in the 1990s and 2000s culminating in the rather epic 2010 - so perhaps the disappointing early winters since then are just nature balancing things back out again.

Although I enjoy snow at any time, there's something quite magical about wintry weather in the run up to & over Xmas - even if it's just a hard frost followed by a crisp sunny day.

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Just checked this winter won`t be as dry as 2005-06  only halfway through yet and nearly as wet from all that rain first half of December.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
On 13/10/2018 at 12:50, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

December - colder than average.  I won’t put too much meat on bones yet but after a wintry first half I suspect blocking to be in place approaching Xmas and then an Atlantic trying to push in against a cold block that won’t give way (period of note possible). I say it won’t give way as I anticipate January to continue with the colder than average winter.

 

January - colder than average - 1st 10 days earmarked for potential coldest temps of winter with cold block established over (if anticipated) snowfields are widespread.  I think mid and backend of January to be potentially very snowy with LPs attempting to take over the ‘general’ pattern as I think the blocking will be at it’s most vulnerable as we enter February

 

February - Average overall but wet.  I think the rhythm eases somewhat and we could see winter wane.  There is a possibility that jetstream holds on southerly track and wintry conditions elongate but Atlantic vulnerability I’ll call it.  

 

A winter to match a 20th century great over next 3 winters?...means I am saying it could be this one.  For sure imo we have entered a period going forward where we could be in the game for some serious synoptic patterns.  Serious cold and long is still very achievable and imo going to become ever more achievable.

As always, with blocking if in wrong place then is a blow out......and Greece etc are locked into an ice age and we are distinctly average, bland even a touch mild....but better to have prevalent northern blocking to put us in the game for cold.

I’ll add more with what I identify as ‘periods of potential most impact’ in Nov..... 

BFTP

That part in bold seems to be worth highlighting lots of snow for Greece of late and bucket loads in Austria

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

That part in bold seems to be worth highlighting lots of snow for Greece of late and bucket loads in Austria

Wish my LRF was the bold part as it has been spot on!!  Placed there as a fear of what could happen, sadly it has

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Sadly the rest of it and particularly the 'earmarked' parts have been completely the opposite...at least you gave it a go.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Half way through the winter now and the winter index says it all:

2009/10: 174.5
2010/11: 129.4
1995/96: 128.1
2012/13: 103.1
1990/91: 92.5
1993/94: 77.4
2000/01: 74.2
2008/09: 64.8
2003/04: 63.9
2017/18: 62.2
1996/97: 60.0
2005/06: 55.1
1998/99: 52.6
2002/03: 52.0
1992/93: 48.7
2011/12: 48.3
2001/02: 48.1
1991/92: 44.5
2014/15: 43.7
2004/05: 42.8
1994/95: 38.1
1999/00: 36.5
1987/88: 35.1
2016/17: 26.1
2007/08: 25.7
2015/16: 24.4
1997/98: 20.3
2006/07: 19.7
2013/14: 8.0
1989/90: 8.0
2018/19: 7.0 (to 14th Jan)
1988/89: 6.6

It's going to take quite something in the last 45 days to turn this winter around.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
8 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Sadly the rest of it and particularly the 'earmarked' parts have been completely the opposite...at least you gave it a go.

Yep very true, all too east due to wrong blocking as feared....but backend of Jan and Feb could rescue winter......heads down

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Dont post this in the Mad thread Gav or there'll be much throwing of toys out of prams!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Dear oh dear, it's all going belly up........ 

EDIT:  That does somewhat contradict what what the model looked like the other day as discussed in the tweets thread!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

Cold Weather Alert Stage 2 @metoffice @PHE_uk The Cold Weather Health Watch has 4 levels of response based on cold weather thresholds, developed to trigger an alert when severe cold weather is likely to significantly affect people's health. The alerts take account of temperature along with other winter weather threats such as ice and snow.  … It is a paid for service which is why it is only for England. Everywhere in UK will be much colder by next week, a dip for tomorrow Thurs 16th #WinterIsComing   https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert 

Last year in the BFTE, it reached Amber level as the severe cold took hold, along with the snowfall. 

1501coldalertNHSmo.png

1401tempcontrast1.png

1401tempcontrast2.png

1401tempcontrast3.png

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