Winter 2018/19

[jules216]

1 minute ago, daz_4 said:

Czech meteorological institute published a graph of average temps at Christmas day in my country. It speaks for itself.

Its comical how even this year the warmest day this month will coincide with Christmas @daz_4

[Seasonality]

46 minutes ago, jules216 said:

@Seasonality @daz_4 I have returned home to Slovakia few days ago after 14 years in Ireland and I can say to you all that I have missed the frosty mornings where temperature falls below - 10C. It is absolutely amazing. Local lakes are deep frozen already and we can go skating on Saturday with kids there. These winter activities  outdoors have been missed so much. 

Yes, its great when you can do that sort of thing. Been a nice week here in Warsaw, standard December fare really with snow on Sunday that is still standing today in sub-zero conditions. But in the UK or Ireland it would be treated as 'SNOWMAGEDDON BEAST HELL WINTER!!!!!!' in all the tabloid newspapers 

[Seasonality]

22 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Its comical how even this year the warmest day this month will coincide with Christmas @daz_4

Oddly I may escape the Central European Xmas day curse if today's output is correct. 00z ECM showing snow xmas eve and max of -3 on xmas day for Warsaw.

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

That happened when I visited my girlfriend’s parents in Latvia, the Christmas of 2015 was mild and around 10c, but by Boxing Day daytime maxes were dropping below freezing, and it was minus 12 for many days after the 27th.

The thing is, despite mild weather at times, most of those countries are guaranteed cold snowy weather at some point during the winter. This year has been snowier already, and temps are well below freezing in Latvia at the moment.

Exactly, the day I left (30th), it had become bitterly cold. 2015 really did no favours for Europe. A work colleague then went to Warsaw in Feb 2016 and had generally cool 5-8C conditions.

How much more interesting our climate would be if we were guaranteed deep cold at some point in winter, rather than just the standard frost and fog (which are nice in their own right).

[Sunny76]

6 hours ago, cheese said:

You need to go north to Sweden or east to Belarus and the Baltics before the chance of a white Christmas in Europe surpasses 50%, and even then it is obviously far from guaranteed, especially in recent years. I would assume that the chance of a white Christmas has decreased significantly in northern and eastern Europe over the past 35 years.

Basically, if you want more or less 100% guaranteed snow on Christmas Day, go to northern Scandinavia.

As for this year, the only capitals in Europe that look set to get a white Christmas are:

Moscow

Helsinki

Minsk

Riga

Tallinn

Vilnius 

Kiev

Stockholm

Oslo

So get your holidays booked now. 

Yes, Riga hasn’t had a white Christmas since 2014, but snow did fall before and after the Christmas of 15,16, and 17.

Snowfall and temps have also changed in Latvia since around 1981. That’s when the winters started becoming less cold there, and back then temps of -20 to -30 would be commonplace, where as now its more likely around -5 to -10. 

It still snows though and a minus 30 daytime temp can and does still happen. 

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Exactly, the day I left (30th), it had become bitterly cold. 2015 really did no favours for Europe. A work colleague then went to Warsaw in Feb 2016 and had generally cool 5-8C conditions.

How much more interesting our climate would be if we were guaranteed deep cold at some point in winter, rather than just the standard frost and fog (which are nice in their own right).

I think that’s where our winters are disappointing, from a southern England perspective, as I can’t talk about the north or Scotland(you guys can and do get snow in years when London and southeast remains snowless). 

Winters in most parts of Northern Europe have at least a week’s worth of snow between November and March, which will always guarentee some winter activities.

I think that’s why I find winter more depressing in London, than I did when I was living in Toronto, or visiting Latvia during the Christmas period.

Granted, London is where most of my family live, and me and the girlfriend will be staying at home in West London, but we have both decided we will spend next Christmas and new year in Latvia. 

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Exactly, the day I left (30th), it had become bitterly cold. 2015 really did no favours for Europe. A work colleague then went to Warsaw in Feb 2016 and had generally cool 5-8C conditions.

How much more interesting our climate would be if we were guaranteed deep cold at some point in winter, rather than just the standard frost and fog (which are nice in their own right).

It would be more interesting if we had a beast from the east 2018 and a summer heatwave like 2018 guaranteed every year. I think people in general would be happier. 

Unfortunately, due to our location on the planet, we end up with mild winters and cool unsettled summers. The worst kind.

I know it’s not all doom and gloom, because at some point we do and will experience both types of bitter cold or hot dry sunny weather. I just don’t understand how some people like our climate the way it is, which is predominantly cloudy dull and damp, even when it’s dry.

[Sunny76]

5 hours ago, daz_4 said:

Czech meteorological institute published a graph of average temps at Christmas day in my country. It speaks for itself.

So, would that tie in to the fact that warming started around 1981-82ish? At a very slow and gradual pace that is.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Azazel]

Absolutely vile winter so far here IMO. Reminds me of the classics of 2014 and 2015. I struggle to recall a time when it hasn’t been pouring down with rain.

[Sunny76]

24 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Absolutely vile winter so far here IMO. Reminds me of the classics of 2014 and 2015. I struggle to recall a time when it hasn’t been pouring down with rain.

I think if I played Jona Lewie’s Stop the Calvary, you may resort to violent behaviour

[Azazel]

56 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think if I played Jona Lewie’s Stop the Calvary, you may resort to violent behaviour

Haha don’t push me over the edge!

im craving spring and summer, but as that’s not possible, I would like some dry and cold or snow please.

[AderynCoch]

16 hours ago, jules216 said:

Its comical how even this year the warmest day this month will coincide with Christmas @daz_4

Yes it's been a decent start to winter here but it's warming up just in time for Christmas (doesn't bother me as I'm flying to the UK on Friday}.

A couple of pictures from the weekend. The first one is in Dúbravka, the last one is looking into Austria from Devínska Kobyla with the Danube winding its way towards Slovakia.

[brmbrmcar]

January is looking good for cold/snow, but February is likely to be even better, supposedly. I predict a sub 3.5c CET overall. I hope some of my earlier predictions turn out, very, very wrong, and that this one is nowhere near as good as reality.

I think January will produce good long-lying snowfall and low minima (widespread low-level below -10c), February low daily maximums (below -2c) and March similar to early this year (up to the end of astronomical winter). And, probably way to far ahead, but to me, it looks like Summer 2019 will be as warm if not warmer than that of 2018, due to the major stratospheric warming mostly, but I guess that counts as off topic here .

[sparky1972]

with the first month of winter nearly over i am amazed that i am still cutting the lawns and the heating is off, oh i so hope January delivers us coldies something to remember.

[Sunny76]

15 hours ago, Azazel said:

Haha don’t push me over the edge!

im craving spring and summer, but as that’s not possible, I would like some dry and cold or snow please.

I have forced the hand of the weather gods, wishing for a severe cold snowy spell in mid January for a few days. Wishful thinking I know, but I feel there’s a change on the way, and the change will be a shock to the system for some.

At least it looks like Christmas Day may be dry and coolish, around 8-9, so not the 12-14 we’ve seen over the last few christmases, although last Christmas was mild. Cold weather seems to move in on or just after Boxing Day in recent times.

[Sunny76]

8 hours ago, brmbrmcar said:

January is looking good for cold/snow, but February is likely to be even better, supposedly. I predict a sub 3.5c CET overall. I hope some of my earlier predictions turn out, very, very wrong, and that this one is nowhere near as good as reality.

I think January will produce good long-lying snowfall and low minima (widespread low-level below -10c), February low daily maximums (below -2c) and March similar to early this year (up to the end of astronomical winter). And, probably way to far ahead, but to me, it looks like Summer 2019 will be as warm if not warmer than that of 2018, due to the major stratospheric warming mostly, but I guess that counts as off topic here .

I really hope we get hammered this winter with a snowstorm, without mercy. Just to shut the mildies up!

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, sparky1972 said:

with the first month of winter nearly over i am amazed that i am still cutting the lawns and the heating is off, oh i so hope January delivers us coldies something to remember.

Lol I’ve had the heating on since October, on and off. 

[Aleman]

On 18/12/2018 at 11:00, sparky1972 said:

 

Could not get the above accidental quote to delete. Please ignore.

 

Is there an increasing chance of a beast from the east in January as the Polar Vortex breaks down?

https://www.sciencealert.com/brace-yourself-the-polar-vortex-looks-to-be-brewing-a-harsh-winter

 

 

[Aleman]

3 hours ago, sparky1972 said:

with the first month of winter nearly over i am amazed that i am still cutting the lawns and the heating is off, oh i so hope January delivers us coldies something to remember.

Temperatures for England have been very mild in places this month but I'm impressed if you are going without heating. It's felt cold here with the wind and rain/drizzle/mist/damp.   There's a notable contrast with Scotland, though. It's been cold enough up there that they've had a few snow episodes. The cold/warm north/south split of December has been fairly typical this year - a reflection of the cold/warm north/south split of the North Atlantic, maybe.

 

Edited December 20, 2018 by Aleman

[Earthshine]

Can spring please start in March next year?  Was fed up of the cold and snow this year and wanted something a bit warmer after such a long winter.

[Earthshine]

10 hours ago, brmbrmcar said:

January is looking good for cold/snow, but February is likely to be even better, supposedly. I predict a sub 3.5c CET overall. I hope some of my earlier predictions turn out, very, very wrong, and that this one is nowhere near as good as reality.

I think January will produce good long-lying snowfall and low minima (widespread low-level below -10c), February low daily maximums (below -2c) and March similar to early this year (up to the end of astronomical winter). And, probably way to far ahead, but to me, it looks like Summer 2019 will be as warm if not warmer than that of 2018, due to the major stratospheric warming mostly, but I guess that counts as off topic here .

Would love it to be sunnier than average too.  If we get a few days of real Beast from the East weather dumping a lot of snow and then sunny for the rest of the time (not cold and grey) I will be very, very happy.  And then by the end of February, we will have record-breaking warmth with temperatures approaching the high 60's Fahrenheit just to top it off.

[sparky1972]

5 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Lol I’ve had the heating on since October, on and off. 

i must admit i tend not to feel the cold so im happy just to put an extra jumper on if i feel chilly, lol

[coldie]

4 hours ago, Evening Star said:

Can spring please start in March next year?  Was fed up of the cold and snow this year and wanted something a bit warmer after such a long winter.

Hopefully it stays cold up until may.

[brmbrmcar]

Extremes when they belong please. I wouldn't mind a heat record in Winter for a day or two. But extreme cold for the winter half and extreme heat for the rest is ideal for me.

Edited December 20, 2018 by brmbrmcar