Winter 2018/19

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

should get rid of the snowy scenes in the shops and on xmas cards ,as it’s so rare to see snow on christmas throughout the years

i prefer UK winters to Canadian ones

[MP-R]

4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i prefer UK winters to Canadian ones

Somewhere between the two would be great. Maybe like New York, which is also a lot sunnier!

[cheeky_monkey]

53 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Somewhere between the two would be great. Maybe like New York, which is also a lot sunnier!

i like the look of Phoenix in the winter

[damianslaw]

A poor start to winter 18/19 so far for those who like snow and cold frosty weather, and nothing until christmas now likely to change that, which means 3 and half weeks gone.. the events of Saturday being especially grating, freezing rain and sleety pellets. Had just the odd air/ground frost.

Hopefully fortunes will change last week of the month and winter will get going.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

20 hours ago, username home said:

we should get rid of the term winter in the uk and replace it with auuuuutuuuumn and sprrrriiiiing as both these seem to go on much longer than they used to. 

Dec is really an autumn month, at least a continuation of autumn, westerlies at their max, upto about late Jan, cold spells (south) way more likely say around 25 Jan to 10 April

[MP-R]

17 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i like the look of Phoenix in the winter

I'm sure you do lol. Among the sunniest places in the world. I'd probably find it very boring!

[Sunny76]

12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A poor start to winter 18/19 so far for those who like snow and cold frosty weather, and nothing until christmas now likely to change that, which means 3 and half weeks gone.. the events of Saturday being especially grating, freezing rain and sleety pellets. Had just the odd air/ground frost.

Hopefully fortunes will change last week of the month and winter will get going.

 

I’m confident the weather will favour more cold weather towards the new year and early January. Plus, it’s not like we have had frosty weather, as last week was quite chilly. 

It probably feels less cold in general, when compared to last December, which gave most places some snow, even down south as I remember it. 

This winter could well be a mixed bag of mild and then very cold weather at some point between late December and end of February.

 

[sparky1972]

well i have to say that as everyday passes and no sign of cold/snow on the models, my £10 bet with the wife on this being a snowless winter is looking good,  although being a cooldie its a bet i would not mind lossing, lol. 

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, sparky1972 said:

well i have to say that as everyday passes and no sign of cold/snow on the models, my £10 bet with the wife on this being a snowless winter is looking good,  although being a cooldie its a bet i would not mind lossing, lol. 

I’ve now decided to magically create a cold spell for mid January. I’m hoping and wishing for a severe spell of weather between the 10th of January, and it will last until around 14th or 15th of January.

The cold spell will be widespread across all parts of the UK, with blizzard type conditions and similar to 1987, and 1991 snow events. The lowest daytime temperatures will hover around -10 to -7, with a very raw windchill. 

I’ll take a gamble, and if it ends up being mild, well I can deal with the mickey taking lol. If it does happen, well

[Earthshine]

On 15/12/2018 at 20:06, Rambo said:

Or probably not lol

Nah living in the southwest of England it'll be relatively mild.  No matter how cold the air it's going to be moderated by the warm water off the coast.  I live in Exeter by the way.

[Mapantz]

The Met Office have said that the Ski season across Europe is one of the best so far. They've had 4 metres at a resort in Switzerland over the past few weeks - very nice!

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

I’ve now decided to magically create a cold spell for mid January. I’m hoping and wishing for a severe spell of weather between the 10th of January, and it will last until around 14th or 15th of January.

The cold spell will be widespread across all parts of the UK, with blizzard type conditions and similar to 1987, and 1991 snow events. The lowest daytime temperatures will hover around -10 to -7, with a very raw windchill. 

I’ll take a gamble, and if it ends up being mild, well I can deal with the mickey taking lol. If it does happen, well

Four days of cold, that means it might get to a ground frost down here then, after such a long spell!

Edited December 18, 2018 by Dorsetbred

[sparky1972]

i for one am looking forward to turning the heating off come the weekend, temps back to 10/11c, southwesterly winds so should feel ok outside, time to get back outside and cut the lawns.

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, sparky1972 said:

i for one am looking forward to turning the heating off come the weekend, temps back to 10/11c, southwesterly winds so should feel ok outside, time to get back outside and cut the lawns.

No thanks. Too many Christmases since 1979 have been in the plus 10 degrees category. 

Would much prefer a crisp dry cold day, or snowy one. Mild and dry is doable though, so long as it’s dry. The worst one for me is wet and mild.

Think next year I’ll be going to Latvia with my girlfriend and spending Christmas there, with her family,as theres almost always guaranteed snow before, during or just after Christmas.

[Don]

Off to Berlin tomorrow until the 23rd.  Unfortunately, the weather does not look too festive there either, with 8C and rain forecast for Saturday! 

[suffolkboy_]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Off to Berlin tomorrow until the 23rd.  Unfortunately, the weather does not look too festive there either, with 8C and rain forecast for Saturday! 

I love Berlin. I was there in January last year and on the day I left it was -6c during the day with light snow. Glad I packed my thick coat.

[Don]

2 hours ago, suffolkboy_ said:

I love Berlin. I was there in January last year and on the day I left it was -6c during the day with light snow. Glad I packed my thick coat.

Thick coat not required now, just a rain coat!  Was hoping for some cold crisp weather.

[lassie23]

I can't see what all the excitement is all about, won't be convinced until it's snowing IMBY

[MP-R]

6 hours ago, Don said:

Thick coat not required now, just a rain coat!  Was hoping for some cold crisp weather.

Same happened when I went to Poland for Christmas in 2015 and 2016. 13C in Warsaw in 2015 and 9C with rain in Kraków in 2016. At least it did turn cold shortly after in both.

[cheese]

5 hours ago, MP-R said:

Same happened when I went to Poland for Christmas in 2015 and 2016. 13C in Warsaw in 2015 and 9C with rain in Kraków in 2016. At least it did turn cold shortly after in both.

You need to go north to Sweden or east to Belarus and the Baltics before the chance of a white Christmas in Europe surpasses 50%, and even then it is obviously far from guaranteed, especially in recent years. I would assume that the chance of a white Christmas has decreased significantly in northern and eastern Europe over the past 35 years.

Basically, if you want more or less 100% guaranteed snow on Christmas Day, go to northern Scandinavia.

As for this year, the only capitals in Europe that look set to get a white Christmas are:

Moscow

Helsinki

Minsk

Riga

Tallinn

Vilnius 

Kiev

Stockholm

Oslo

So get your holidays booked now. 

Edited December 19, 2018 by cheese

[Matthew.]

The last 10 years from a winters season lying snow and deep cold perspective from locally in NE England:

2009/10: Around 30 days lying snow well spaced out over season

2010/11: Around 20 days lying snow mainly late November/December

2011/12: Maybe a day or 2

2012/13: Just over 10 or so days lying snow mainly mid/late January

2013/14: Nothing

2014/15: Barely Nothing

2015/16: Barely Nothing and April at that

2016/17: Barely Nothing

2017/18: Just over 10 or so days lying snow well spaced, Nov 30th-Mar 19th

Even though this year has recorded nothing as yet we await to see if the SSW occurs. As 2013 shows, many days in succession can occur at half month intervals. I believe the mild December theory, leading to no further snowfall for the rest of the season, falls short of accuracy. This could be compared with the year ending ‘8’ comparison for summer as that proved a false heron this year. That being said, the greatest winters for snow and cold e.g 2009/10, do tend to have an overall pattern. These years seem to occur once in a decade or 2. The 2020’s will have another such like I’m sure with other years having good spells too!

 

[jules216]

@Seasonality @daz_4 I have returned home to Slovakia few days ago after 14 years in Ireland and I can say to you all that I have missed the frosty mornings where temperature falls below - 10C. It is absolutely amazing. Local lakes are deep frozen already and we can go skating on Saturday with kids there. These winter activities  outdoors have been missed so much. 

[Sunny76]

7 hours ago, MP-R said:

Same happened when I went to Poland for Christmas in 2015 and 2016. 13C in Warsaw in 2015 and 9C with rain in Kraków in 2016. At least it did turn cold shortly after in both.

That happened when I visited my girlfriend’s parents in Latvia, the Christmas of 2015 was mild and around 10c, but by Boxing Day daytime maxes were dropping below freezing, and it was minus 12 for many days after the 27th.

The thing is, despite mild weather at times, most of those countries are guaranteed cold snowy weather at some point during the winter. This year has been snowier already, and temps are well below freezing in Latvia at the moment.

[daz_4]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

You need to go north to Sweden or east to Belarus and the Baltics before the chance of a white Christmas in Europe surpasses 50%, and even then it is obviously far from guaranteed, especially in recent years. I would assume that the chance of a white Christmas has decreased significantly in northern and eastern Europe over the past 35 years.

Czech meteorological institute published a graph of average temps at Christmas day in my country. It speaks for itself.

[Don]

1 minute ago, daz_4 said:

Czech meteorological institute published a graph of average temps at Christmas day in my country. It speaks for itself.

A bit of a warming trend this last decade......