Winter 2018/19

[Ross90]

43 minutes ago, Rambo said:

Or probably not lol

Chances are it will be milder than the long term average, most recent winters have been.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Ross90 said:

Chances are it will be milder than the long term average, most recent winters have been.

If weather-prediction were like successive throws of a single die, you'd be right, as - on average -  that die would be loaded...But weather-prediction isn't like throwing a die; and, this year especially, the 'odds' are stacked in favour of a colder (not warmer) than average winter...

[sparky1972]

here is my roll of the dice and hunch, and a £10 bet with the wife that this winter will be a much milder than average and a snowless one, i base this on nothing but a feeling and a knowing that Lapland was so warm that they were snowless until early December and a friend telling me that some ski resorts were very late in getting meaningfull snow, so all it tells me is the world is warming and the chances of getting snow is this country are falling year on year.

[SLEETY]

the facts back it up too.January has hardly felt like a winter month for ages 

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

the facts back it up too.January has hardly felt like a winter month for ages 

Apart from 2017?!

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

the facts back it up too.January has hardly felt like a winter month for ages 

They might...were this coming January's pattern in any way dependent on last January's? IMO, out of context 'statistics' seldom count for anything...

[Rambo]

1 hour ago, sparky1972 said:

here is my roll of the dice and hunch, and a £10 bet with the wife that this winter will be a much milder than average and a snowless one, i base this on nothing but a feeling and a knowing that Lapland was so warm that they were snowless until early December and a friend telling me that some ski resorts were very late in getting meaningfull snow, so all it tells me is the world is warming and the chances of getting snow is this country are falling year on year.

But conversely, Canada and USA had some very heavy early snowfall, plus a smattering of areas around the globe that wouldnt normally have snow as early as they did this year! 

Its all meaningless really! Its as much down to weather patterns as it is temperatures. Obviously everyone is entitled to a hunch or a feeling, but it means nothing sadly. It could be a mild winter, or severely cold winter, the fact is, no one knows for sure until after its happened, even the experts!

[sparky1972]

29 minutes ago, Rambo said:

But conversely, Canada and USA had some very heavy early snowfall, plus a smattering of areas around the globe that wouldnt normally have snow as early as they did this year! 

Its all meaningless really! Its as much down to weather patterns as it is temperatures. Obviously everyone is entitled to a hunch or a feeling, but it means nothing sadly. It could be a mild winter, or severely cold winter, the fact is, no one knows for sure until after its happened, even the experts!

you are quite correct in it all being meaningless, but its fun to have a hunch and to find out if it was right or wrong in the hunt for cold and snow, i for one would love a cold frosty snowy winter.  i am happy to admit i read the hunt for snow thread and get a little excited when people say yep, its on its way, only to have the dreams and hopes dashed when it all goes south, lol.

[lassie23]

i'm going for a mild winter with mankini weather come February

[Rambo]

1 minute ago, sparky1972 said:

you are quite correct in it all being meaningless, but its fun to have a hunch and to find out if it was right or wrong in the hunt for cold and snow, i for one would love a cold frosty snowy winter.  i am happy to admit i read the hunt for snow thread and get a little excited when people say yep, its on its way, only to have the dreams and hopes dashed when it all goes south, lol.

Oh yeh, I totally agree, just trying to pep it up, as things aren't that bad considering.

I'm going to rename the MOD thread the "Goldfish Tank" I think. A few weeks ago, winter's here for good...everyone's excited. A week or so later, zonal all winter, people saying told you so. The actual outcome for the last week or so was rather "meh", but this weekend was a close run thing, and even took the experts by surprise! Its a case of one run, winter's here, next run, winter's cancelled till next year. The models are chopping and changing so much, and it seems many in that thread forget how up and down the models were the week before, and yet see one bad run, and that's it, its all off for definite. I just haven't got the enthusiasm for a 3 second memory like that lol!

(meant mostly in jest, and no offence to those commenting on the MOD thread)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, sparky1972 said:

here is my roll of the dice and hunch, and a £10 bet with the wife that this winter will be a much milder than average and a snowless one, i base this on nothing but a feeling and a knowing that Lapland was so warm that they were snowless until early December and a friend telling me that some ski resorts were very late in getting meaningfull snow, so all it tells me is the world is warming and the chances of getting snow is this country are falling year on year.

not far off likely, I'm already going for a snowless Dec for my area, not been even 1 good GFS FI, certainly a green Xmas looks nailed on (south)

[markyo]

Nothing so far this Winter to get me out of working in shorts,xmas looking mild,New year possibly also,fingers crossed January will come up with the proper seasonal weather.....wouldn't bet on it though!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Xmas mild in South nailed on, but not sure for north, some parts could see snow, 

[northwestsnow]

Cold christmas is my stab.. although dry.

[Rambo]

17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Xmas mild in South nailed on, but not sure for north, some parts could see snow, 

Sorry but you cant say "nailed on" lol. Nothing in the weather recently has been nailed on!!

[MP-R]

3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Apart from 2017?!

Indeed, monthly average of 02.7C at my location. 2015 was also fairly wintry feeling with plenty of frosts and some days with snow showers but not great for deep cold. Second half of January 2011 was also cold and very frosty. I think some forget that frost and ice also constitute wintry, not just snow.

[matt111]

A Christmas where the temperature doesn't reach double figures here would be something. Haven't had one of those for a while let alone a truly cold one. 

[DAVID SNOW]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Xmas mild in South nailed on, but not sure for north, some parts could see snow, 

For Spain yes.

[Stonethecrows]

Long time thread reader, first time poster.

I was just wondering how people can brush the various models, charts and experienced input from posters under the carpet and simply say nothing more than it's a hunch or gut feeling. I'm not singling folk out here as the gut word is peppered all through these various threads but it begs the question what are these comments actually bringing to the table?

If a hunch turns out to be correct and you've not actually based it on anything then what has it proven? and how can we learn from it when there was no reasoning behind the decision! Would a bank manager give you a business loan if you just turned round and said i've got a hunch it will be a success? No, he'd want a detailed business plan first, besides, are we not all here to learn/enhance our weather knowledge or just out for the "i told you so" when our gut wins for once.

[Thundery wintry showers]

January 2013 had a long cold spell from the 12th to 25th and here was a snowy breakdown at the end of the spell with many places seeing an all snow event prior to the arrival of milder westerlies.  I recall that satellite imagery on the morning following the breakdown showed a snow cover over a large majority of Britain though with large areas of the south-west missing out.  So it's not that long since we saw a widespread cold snowy spell in January.  And indeed, much of January 2015 from the 13th onwards was cool zonal in the north and west with some fairly snowy polar maritime incursions, and January 2017 was quite cold in the south.

Edited December 17, 2018 by Thundery wintry showers

[winterof79]

6 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

January 2013 had a long cold spell from the 12th to 25th and here was a snowy breakdown at the end of the spell with many places seeing an all snow event prior to the arrival of milder westerlies.  I recall that satellite imagery on the morning following the breakdown showed a snow cover over a large majority of Britain though with large areas of the south-west missing out.  So it's not that long since we saw a widespread cold snowy spell in January.  And indeed, much of January 2015 from the 13th onwards was cool zonal in the north and west with some fairly snowy polar maritime incursions, and January 2017 was quite cold in the south.

 

[Froze were the Days]

January 2013 although as we know had cold spell mid-month for near on 2 weeks it started mild and finished very mild and overall the month was close to the 1981-2010 series...so not a stand out cold month!

[cheese]

50 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

January 2013 although as we know had cold spell mid-month for near on 2 weeks it started mild and finished very mild and overall the month was close to the 1981-2010 series...so not a stand out cold month!

2012-2013 was interesting in that there was not much in the way of notable cold but, in this area anyway, it was very snowy. It was a snowier winter than both 2009/10 and 2010/11 here.

[username home]

we should get rid of the term winter in the uk and replace it with auuuuutuuuumn and sprrrriiiiing as both these seem to go on much longer than they used to. 

[SLEETY]

should get rid of the snowy scenes in the shops and on xmas cards ,as it’s so rare to see snow on christmas throughout the years