Winter 2018/19

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, coldie said:

After 7 days?

i think we can bin december

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

whinealot  lol

Less of that...Chum?

[iceman1991]

Thought you guys find this interesting  gavsweathervids thoughts on current weather through dec regents that jan could be very interesting for cold weather fans link below 

 

[Premiere Neige]

5 hours ago, iceman1991 said:

Thought you guys find this interesting  gavsweathervids thoughts on current weather through dec regents that jan could be very interesting for cold weather fans link below 

 

As a long time lurker (2009 I think) I decided to join in and this was to be my first post but you beat me to it. Oh well!  Interesting that ECMWF and CFS both agree on height rises over the pole and into Greenland at week 6. No doubt a response to the predicted SSW....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 hours ago, iceman1991 said:

Thought you guys find this interesting  gavsweathervids thoughts on current weather through dec regents that jan could be very interesting for cold weather fans link below 

 

if only it was guaranteed! then I wouldn't mind this mild Dec

[Premiere Neige]

10 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

if only it was guaranteed! then I wouldn't mind this mild Dec

As I understand it has been predicted for several weeks now along with a big drop in zonal wind speeds? Not a guarantee but must have a good chance?!

[Easton Luna Boys]

13 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

if only it was guaranteed! then I wouldn't mind this mild Dec

All very entertaining for sure, but there is of course, no such thing as pattern matching/comparing similar passages of weather from past events and certainly no guarantee that by experiencing a mild December will lead to a colder January/February. 

Personally, if we could get through this wet and windy period, I would be very happy for a continuation of the mild theme as it makes my job a heck of a lot easier in the run up to Christmas. As for the festive period itself; does anyone really pay that much attention to what is going on outside of your own front door? We are all so consumed with our own Christmas bubble world; be that attending church, exchanging and opening of presents, entertaining family and guests, dealing with the Christmas lunch (which IS all consuming in more ways than one) that it is probably the one time in the year where I am oblivious to what the conditions are outside anyway - and I suspect this irony is experienced by many others as well. I'll be perfectly content with a green and mild Christmas with the heating switched off by 1pm as the latent heat from the radiators and ovens in the kitchen kicks in. 

Also, I'm completely bemused by some of the comments in some of the other threads about seeing snow in lowland UK next week. We're in a west to east flow for a good while yet, and long may that continue.

[Rambo]

3 hours ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

All very entertaining for sure, but there is of course, no such thing as pattern matching/comparing similar passages of weather from past events and certainly no guarantee that by experiencing a mild December will lead to a colder January/February. 

Personally, if we could get through this wet and windy period, I would be very happy for a continuation of the mild theme as it makes my job a heck of a lot easier in the run up to Christmas. As for the festive period itself; does anyone really pay that much attention to what is going on outside of your own front door? We are all so consumed with our own Christmas bubble world; be that attending church, exchanging and opening of presents, entertaining family and guests, dealing with the Christmas lunch (which IS all consuming in more ways than one) that it is probably the one time in the year where I am oblivious to what the conditions are outside anyway - and I suspect this irony is experienced by many others as well. I'll be perfectly content with a green and mild Christmas with the heating switched off by 1pm as the latent heat from the radiators and ovens in the kitchen kicks in. 

Also, I'm completely bemused by some of the comments in some of the other threads about seeing snow in lowland UK next week. We're in a west to east flow for a good while yet, and long may that continue.

What a bizarre Christmas you have lol, each to their own I suppose!

[Eugene]

Happy with how my winter forecast is going, zonal December with limited cold. January should see the storms really revving up with a very active Atlantic. As ever we'll be looking for backend of winter cold in February. All in all very disappointing winter ahead for cold weather fans, next summer will be another scorcher as high pressure rules the roost again. Tbh the UK weather is very predictable and easy to predict now.

 

[Rambo]

47 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Happy with how my winter forecast is going, zonal December with limited cold. January should see the storms really revving up with a very active Atlantic. As ever we'll be looking for backend of winter cold in February. All in all very disappointing winter ahead for cold weather fans, next summer will be another scorcher as high pressure rules the roost again. Tbh the UK weather is very predictable and easy to predict now.

 

HAHAHA wowzers!!!!

[MattStoke]

12 hours ago, Eugene said:

Happy with how my winter forecast is going, zonal December with limited cold. January should see the storms really revving up with a very active Atlantic. As ever we'll be looking for backend of winter cold in February. All in all very disappointing winter ahead for cold weather fans, next summer will be another scorcher as high pressure rules the roost again. Tbh the UK weather is very predictable and easy to predict now.

 

Sarcasm is always a good laugh!

[iceman1991]

Here’s another from yesterday gavsweathervids on the strat very interesting indeed looks like we could have cold after Xmas really hope we do getting sick of this boring weather and don’t think anything will change unless we get this ssw link below guys have a ganders ?

 

[Easton Luna Boys]

22 hours ago, Rambo said:

What a bizarre Christmas you have lol, each to their own I suppose!

Lol, I find it bizarre that you find that bizarre; isn't that what most people do at Christmas in this country?

Agree on others saying about the zonal train zooming through the station that is December. Beyond that, it's anybody's guess, but I don't agree that out climate is becoming more predictable - or any more predictable than the last 400 years or so. Last summer was legendary, but I don't envisage a sudden flip in our weather patterns meaning that is the norm. I'd gladly take it though and be happy to trade mild wet winters for Mediterranean like summers, but that's just being wishful. 

[Rambo]

14 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

Lol, I find it bizarre that you find that bizarre; isn't that what most people do at Christmas in this country?

Agree on others saying about the zonal train zooming through the station that is December. Beyond that, it's anybody's guess, but I don't agree that out climate is becoming more predictable - or any more predictable than the last 400 years or so. Last summer was legendary, but I don't envisage a sudden flip in our weather patterns meaning that is the norm. I'd gladly take it though and be happy to trade mild wet winters for Mediterranean like summers, but that's just being wishful. 

Its very hard to say whether the majority of the population even like snow or not...probably find most people would rather we dont have snow normally!!

HOWEVER, if there was ever a time where anyone (even the most mildest of mild lovers) wanted snow to fall, it would be at Christmas!! 

[Weather-history]

On 21/11/2018 at 16:15, Easton Luna Boys said:

Yes, it's something that we've heard a lot from non forum member types - that this year's easterly at the end of February/beginning of March was exceptionally cold, when actually, while temperatures in lowland England and Wales for the time of year (effectively early Spring less the last day of winter) were considerably below average without a doubt, they were not of course comparable to 1991, 2009/10 etc because it was so late in the season (or early in the next one depending on whether you use the meteorological seasons or not). That said, it was quite a remarkable spell of weather. 

The CET maximum for the 1st of March 2018 was -1.2C, that was lower than any CET maximum that was recorded for 2009-10, lowest CET maximum for that winter was -0.7C on the 7th January. To record a daily CET maximum in March of -1.2C, you got to say it was exceptionally cold.  

The difference is that the late Feb-early Match 2018 spell was that it was accompanied by a strong wind which accentuated the cold. The coldest spells during winters 2009-10 and 2010-11 were under calm condiitons with snow cover and that resulted in very low minima, a series of daily December records were broken during that December of 2010.

The CET daily maxima for that February 1991 spell, three on the trot were sub zero, -2.2C, -1.2C and -1.5C

28th Feb 2018: -1.3C, 1st March 2018: -1.2C. 

Even the first part of March 1947 didn't record a CET daily maximum that was sub-zero. 

 

 

 

 

[Sunny76]

3 hours ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

Lol, I find it bizarre that you find that bizarre; isn't that what most people do at Christmas in this country?

Agree on others saying about the zonal train zooming through the station that is December. Beyond that, it's anybody's guess, but I don't agree that out climate is becoming more predictable - or any more predictable than the last 400 years or so. Last summer was legendary, but I don't envisage a sudden flip in our weather patterns meaning that is the norm. I'd gladly take it though and be happy to trade mild wet winters for Mediterranean like summers, but that's just being wishful. 

Having a mild winter doesn’t always guarantee a good summer to follow. 2015-16 was mild, and the summer that followed was rather disappointing. 

Other examples of this are 87-88, which had a mild winter, but summer 88 was dreadful. 

2006/07 winter was mild, summer 07 was dung.

No thanks, I would rather have a cold snowy spell in winter, for a few days to a week, and several weeks on and off with cold sunny dry frosty weather.

Mild winters are usually very depressing, because we end up getting more rain and dull windy weather. 

[SLEETY]

End of the year should be when we see the beginning of the severe cold weather approaching the UK from the NE,to set us up for a very cold and snowy spell in January.Not sure if it will last more than a couple of weeks,but it will certainly be a memorable cold outbreak.And in the coldest part of the winter for a change!!

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by SLEETY

[Don]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

End of the year should be when we see the beginning of the severe cold weather approaching the UK from the NE,to set us up for a very cold and snowy spell in January.Not sure if it will last more than a couple of weeks,but it will certainly be a memorable cold outbreak.And in the coldest part of the winter for a change!!

 

Severe cold weather spells very rarely do last more than a couple of weeks in this country.  By that I mean uninterrupted.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Don

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Severe cold weather spells very rarely do last more than a couple of weeks in this country.  By that I mean uninterrupted.

yeah but two weeks is better than nothing,many severe cold  spells of the past had  failed easterlies before they finally took control and delivered ,this winter looks to be heading the same way ,so bring it on by end of the year

[Froze were the Days]

On 09/12/2018 at 17:17, Sunny76 said:

Having a mild winter doesn’t always guarantee a good summer to follow. 2015-16 was mild, and the summer that followed was rather disappointing. 

Other examples of this are 87-88, which had a mild winter, but summer 88 was dreadful. 

2006/07 winter was mild, summer 07 was dung.

No thanks, I would rather have a cold snowy spell in winter, for a few days to a week, and several weeks on and off with cold sunny dry frosty weather.

Mild winters are usually very depressing, because we end up getting more rain and dull windy weather. 

Sorry but in the south/south east there hasn't been a disappointing summer since the Olympic year 2012...always warmer than average, okay we might get the odd more unsettled/somewhat cooler month which springs up occasionally but nothing in comparison to decades gone by.

So many above average CET months of recent years you lose track!

Edited December 10, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[Summer Sun]

 

[JeffC]

50 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

I maybe old fashioned but I have found Leonard Cohen to be as good at interpreting the models. I do believe Hallelujah was composed in response to a sudden stratospheric warming that came with T+48.

Is that judah's dad?

Edited December 10, 2018 by JeffC

[Sunny76]

3 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Sorry but in the south/south east there hasn't been a disappointing summer since the Olympic year 2012...always warmer than average, okay we might get the odd more unsettled/somewhat cooler month which springs up occasionally but nothing in comparison to decades gone by.

So many above average CET months of recent years you lose track!

I live in London, and the summers of 2015 and 16 were disappointing in the main. I know they provided a few weeks of hot or warm sunny weather, but I remember many days of depressing cloudy and humid weather. Not the type of summer I enjoy, and to boot, sandwiched between mild winters.

I prefer the era of 2008-2012 over the 2015-2017 era. 

Hot summers are good, but the really good ones aren’t a guarantee. 

Above average months, don’t always mean great weather with sunny spells. It can be still cloudy and depressing with mild nights. No thanks!

Edited December 10, 2018 by Sunny76

[Don]

6 hours ago, SLEETY said:

yeah but two weeks is better than nothing,many severe cold  spells of the past had  failed easterlies before they finally took control and delivered ,this winter looks to be heading the same way ,so bring it on by end of the year

I would say a two week wintry spell would be very good indeed, let alone better than nothing!

[law of averages]

What about DECEMBER 2010, that was more or less uninterrupted... a month!!

Also someone else mentioned there's no pattern in weather, I disagree BIG time... there are patterns, nowt surer... just going from 1947 ( give or take year!!  ) BIG winter, 1955 I'm sure was a cold winter, 1963 another biggie, 1971 was snowy, 1978/79 take your pick on either, 1986/87 I'm sure these were memorable, 1995/96 I'm sure one of these was, 2003/04 might not be as memorable but some good snow, 2009/10 as above... and this year the beast!! So within 8yrs or so, there's some memorable winter's... 1947 and 1963 being the exception and seeing as I wasn't born till 65, them 2 are out of my reach lol but there are patterns there... whether BIG or small