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Winter 2018/19


syed2878

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Winter 2001/02?  No thank you!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
22 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

A little update, I revised my CET down to 4.9c.  

 

 

 

Yes, i think i might have gone a little high now myself.

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

Massive ramp by government organisation over on Twitter?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
22 hours ago, Bullseye said:

Massive ramp by government organisation over on Twitter?

 

Ha Ha..us Essex folk are the biggest chancers in the country

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

hope it's not repeat of 2002 E'ly, what a whimper, just a few flakes of wet snow when Atlantic moved in on 12th

archives-2002-12-8-0-0.pngarchives-2002-12-9-12-0.pngarchives-2002-12-10-12-0.pngarchives-2002-12-11-12-0.pngarchives-2002-12-12-12-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

December looks like it will be dominated by the Atlantic, I can't really see a way out of it until January. Weather has been depressing in Edinburgh lately, today we had freezing rain in the morning and last week was just non stop rain and wind. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
4 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

December looks like it will be dominated by the Atlantic, I can't really see a way out of it until January. Weather has been depressing in Edinburgh lately, today we had freezing rain in the morning and last week was just non stop rain and wind. 

Are you sure that the recent wet weather was Atlantic driven? Also not much evidence to suggest the rest of the month will be predominantly driven by the Atlantic?

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Top ten analogue years (past twelve months previous Dec to recent Nov)

Sum of squares method (CET differentials squared then summed)

1. 1976 ____ 6. 1804

2. 2003 ____ 7. 1999

3. 2006 ____ 8. 1788

4. 1728 ____ 9. 1738

5. 1707 ____10. 1818

___________________________________________________

It is interesting that most of these close fit years were not recent. However, as a set of pre-winter analogues, the profiles are somewhat uninspiring. Winter of 1728-29 was relatively cold (Jan 1729 1.2). Winter 1788-89 would be the coldest (Dec -0.3, Jan 1.5, Feb 5.0).  Some other winters back in the older set of analogues were near average for the times. It is noteworthy that none of the best fits occurred between 1818 and 1976. However, 1911 was almost in this list. The more recent analogues are generally mild, especially 2006-07. 

We will have to hope that if we are on this track, the low solar activity will tip the scales back towards the colder side. 

Three of these years were a year ahead of a very cold winter (1739-40, 1708-09, 1819-20) so we're apparently in the hunt more generally.

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
7 hours ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

December looks like it will be dominated by the Atlantic, I can't really see a way out of it until January. Weather has been depressing in Edinburgh lately, today we had freezing rain in the morning and last week was just non stop rain and wind. 

there's a surprise, looks like a very wet, warm month, wouldn't be surprised at way above average rain, and CET, above 8C

dry mon-wed maybe, then back to rain and double figures

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
6 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Top ten analogue years (past twelve months previous Dec to recent Nov)

Sum of squares method (CET differentials squared then summed)

1. 1976 ____ 6. 1804

2. 2003 ____ 7. 1999

3. 2006 ____ 8. 1788

4. 1728 ____ 9. 1738

5. 1707 ____10. 1818

___________________________________________________

It is interesting that most of these close fit years were not recent. However, as a set of pre-winter analogues, the profiles are somewhat uninspiring. Winter of 1728-29 was relatively cold (Jan 1729 1.2). Winter 1788-89 would be the coldest (Dec -0.3, Jan 1.5, Feb 5.0).  Some other winters back in the older set of analogues were near average for the times. It is noteworthy that none of the best fits occurred between 1818 and 1976. However, 1911 was almost in this list. The more recent analogues are generally mild, especially 2006-07. 

We will have to hope that if we are on this track, the low solar activity will tip the scales back towards the colder side. 

Three of these years were a year ahead of a very cold winter (1739-40, 1708-09, 1819-20) so we're apparently in the hunt more generally.

 

 

That doesn't sound like a very upbeat post Roger!

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

It's probably neutral in tone because while it doesn't scream cold from the rooftops, it allows for a reasonably cold outcome. In any case, I maintain my earlier comments about what I think will happen this winter. 

There has been a real shift in the short-term model output (days five to ten in particular) overnight and the chances of a cold, dry spell have given way to more of a disturbed period continuing with quite a strong windstorm showing on several models by about a week from today. I don't see much mild air with this either, after it turns colder by Sunday into Monday, these new disturbances have only a limited amount of access to subtropical air masses and are mostly just recycling the cold in place over regions west of Ireland. I could see something like a sleety mix of rain, snow and hail blowing sideways in the maps on display this morning. 

Knowing that there's a high possibility of an energy peak near the end of the GFS run (21st-22nd) makes me speculate that the output we're seeing may continue more intense than shown after day ten, with some volatile weather patterns for several weeks. 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
9 hours ago, Norrance said:

Are you sure that the recent wet weather was Atlantic driven? Also not much evidence to suggest the rest of the month will be predominantly driven by the Atlantic?

Look again at the models to be honest, I'm not surprised, it is December after all. 

Last December was much better, around this time last year we had a low of -9/-10 here in Edinburgh and currents were predominantly north-western, bringing sunny, but frosty days. 

I was really hoping that the ridge would hold off the lows to the west this time, but the model runs this morning aren't at all promising. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Ridiculously mild start to December here, temperature didn't get below 11c last night!! - looks like this way for the next couple of days until colder conditions next week but nothing noteworthy (a decent frost would be a start). Uphill struggle already to get that CET back down to near normal...well we're hearing promise for this winter which generally seems to be regarded as now a back loaded if not January/February affair...but before now there were a number on here believing this month was generally going to be cold...hhmmm

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors
16 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Ridiculously mild start to December here, temperature didn't get below 11c last night!! - looks like this way for the next couple of days until colder conditions next week but nothing noteworthy (a decent frost would be a start). Uphill struggle already to get that CET back down to near normal...well we're hearing promise for this winter which generally seems to be regarded as now a back loaded if not January/February affair...but before now there were a number on here believing this month was generally going to be cold...hhmmm

Are you sure, mean here is 5.4C only +1.4C - fairly normal for start of a month in the end of the year to cool as it goes on.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
25 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Ridiculously mild start to December here, temperature didn't get below 11c last night!! - looks like this way for the next couple of days until colder conditions next week but nothing noteworthy (a decent frost would be a start). Uphill struggle already to get that CET back down to near normal...well we're hearing promise for this winter which generally seems to be regarded as now a back loaded if not January/February affair...but before now there were a number on here believing this month was generally going to be cold...hhmmm

Well I didn't, always believe in the Atlantic

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
51 minutes ago, 4wd said:

Are you sure, mean here is 5.4C only +1.4C - fairly normal for start of a month in the end of the year to cool as it goes on.

Yep!...mean of 9.2C here over the first 5 days which has to be at near 3C above normal (not sure what the mean figure here is at the start of December in the South East)...big difference I believe between areas further north and the south/south east over the last few months. CET has come out near normal for September/October but certainly felt mild/warm here, can't ever remember going around in a sleeveless top so much in October.

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Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
5 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

It's probably neutral in tone because while it doesn't scream cold from the rooftops, it allows for a reasonably cold outcome. In any case, I maintain my earlier comments about what I think will happen this winter. 

There has been a real shift in the short-term model output (days five to ten in particular) overnight and the chances of a cold, dry spell have given way to more of a disturbed period continuing with quite a strong windstorm showing on several models by about a week from today. I don't see much mild air with this either, after it turns colder by Sunday into Monday, these new disturbances have only a limited amount of access to subtropical air masses and are mostly just recycling the cold in place over regions west of Ireland. I could see something like a sleety mix of rain, snow and hail blowing sideways in the maps on display this morning. 

Knowing that there's a high possibility of an energy peak near the end of the GFS run (21st-22nd) makes me speculate that the output we're seeing may continue more intense than shown after day ten, with some volatile weather patterns for several weeks. 

Hi roger 

find you post very interesting your very good with your predictions when do you think we could be in a chance for a decent cold if so as a lot of people saying back end of winter what’s your thoughts to this ?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Latest ec seasonal shows the mean winter storm track a bit far north to provide a wintry nirvana - Scotland could do well from this and I believe that each month sees the blocking to the north pushing the jet a little further south ....... still in the game based on this - good signs to our se but not necessarily to our ssw 

5216FC24-CD3E-438A-A811-1259AF862CA7.thumb.jpeg.5faf502c0076d21759fa8b05e99f61bb.jpeg 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
On 01/12/2018 at 21:05, Don said:

Does anyone know what happened to Ian Pennells?  I have not seen any forecast from him since the spring and I did rate him.

He wrote the netwesther winter forecast before ? .Seems to have disappeared of the face of the earth.Trouble with internet ,how many people do you know personally.Maybe he passed away for all we know

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