Winter 2018/19

[Don]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Blizzard81....re the glancing blow on 5th Dec....this is from a CME....an extra to Coronal hole solar hit, indeed this is a potential feature of us getting hit after hit after hit.  Expect wild jetstream meandering and NOT a flat jet.  This really is getting interesting

 

BFTP

I take it this would be good news for cold weather prospects here?

[Mr Brown]

7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Blizzard81....re the glancing blow on 5th Dec....this is from a CME....an extra to Coronal hole solar hit, indeed this is a potential feature of us getting hit after hit after hit.  Expect wild jetstream meandering and NOT a flat jet.  This really is getting interesting

 

BFTP

So potentially a recurring scenario of repeatedly undercutting events? 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes guys, chances of some very interesting Synoptics coming up. The very recent changes (last 24hrs) expect more or at least consolidating over coming days.  We don’t need initially incredible northern blocking...just a very perturbed Jetstream

 

BFTP

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Blizzard81....re the glancing blow on 5th Dec....this is from a CME....an extra to Coronal hole solar hit, indeed this is a potential feature of us getting hit after hit after hit.  Expect wild jetstream meandering and NOT a flat jet.  This really is getting interesting

 

BFTP

I thought the meandering jet was a product of the LIA footprint, Fred? If so,1963 must had more coronal holes than it's possible to count?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

46 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I thought the meandering jet was a product of the LIA footprint, Fred? If so,1963 must had more coronal holes than it's possible to count?

Perturbation Pete, big cycles and also modulation which means I think the models will play catch-up.....I’m actually pretty sat up here....

 

BFTP

Edited December 1, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Blizzard81....re the glancing blow on 5th Dec....this is from a CME....an extra to Coronal hole solar hit, indeed this is a potential feature of us getting hit after hit after hit.  Expect wild jetstream meandering and NOT a flat jet.  This really is getting interesting

 

BFTP

Thanks for the reply blast. You seem very confident. I am just concerned that any undue interference from the sun may derail any cold potential. 

[Summer Sun]

Terry Scholey has issued his winter forecast on Gav's weather vids website

The summary of it is below

Quote

I am going for a colder than normal December and February, with January the mildest month particularly in the West and South. There will however be variations within each month.

You can read the full forecast here https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

[Don]

Does anyone know what happened to Ian Pennells?  I have not seen any forecast from him since the spring and I did rate him.

[Summer Sun]

 

GavsWeatherVids winter forecast

Here's a quick summary from the near 50 minute forecast

Colder than average winter expected for the UK
Temperature anomalies 1c to 1.5c below average
Drier than average winter likely overall

 

[Methuselah]

Another brilliant presentation from Gavin...I particularly appreciate his openness regarding his methods; no secret, arcane or mysterious hokum to be seen, anywhere!

[Bristawl Si]

16 hours ago, iceman1991 said:

Here’s Brian’s winter forecast  of weather outlook going for colder than average  quite interesting he’s pretty spot on with us predictions what you guys think  to links below 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Seems to be hedging his bets, having just read it.

[Bristawl Si]

15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Another brilliant presentation from Gavin...I particularly appreciate his openness regarding his methods; no secret, arcane or mysterious hokum to be seen, anywhere!

Pete, who is this Gav guy? Is he a pro or an internet weather 'hero'?

[Methuselah]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

Pete, who is this Gav guy? Is he a pro or an internet weather 'hero'?

Watch the video Bris, and make up your own mind...? But his reasoning seems pretty down-to-Earth to me. What's more, he doesn't predict 'brutal cold' year in and year out...

[ArHu3]

2 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Pete, who is this Gav guy? Is he a pro or an internet weather 'hero'?

It's Summer Sun himself who posted the video 

[Summer Sun]

5 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

It's Summer Sun himself who posted the video 

Not me

[Summer Sun]

2 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Pete, who is this Gav guy? Is he a pro or an internet weather 'hero'?

Some info on Gavin P here https://www.gavsweathervids.com/about.html

[Nick F]

20 hours ago, iceman1991 said:

Here’s Brian’s winter forecast  of weather outlook going for colder than average  quite interesting he’s pretty spot on with us predictions what you guys think  to links below 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Interesting, but would like to see some reasoning behind his forecast to feel it is justified, i.e. likely effects of drivers on the NH patterns through the season - such as QBO, ENSO, SSTs, strat, etc.

[Summer Sun]

 

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Interesting, but would like to see some reasoning behind his forecast to feel it is justified, i.e. likely effects of drivers on the NH patterns through the season - such as QBO, ENSO, SSTs, strat, etc.

I think he has covered these drivers in greater detail in his weekly winter updates.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index is now up and running

Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 

2018-19: 0 (up to 2nd Dec)

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 30/11/2018 at 22:09, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

No backtrack, December starts tomorrow so the forecast hasn’t even started .  Models trending colder, remember wintry isn’t snowmaggeddon....but of course isn’t mild.  As the 12z show, some ,ore tweaking and I’ll be very happy.  I’m very much of the opinion a more wintry set up will appear with (‘not anticipated’ snowfall by mainstream) very much in the mix as we go through the first half of Dec.

Last 10 days still a watch period of note for me ( impactual wintry weather period last week to 10 days)

 

BFTP

Quote

 

Posted Friday at 09:22

I think the CET won’t tell the whole story. 5.7c  115mm.   Could see stark differences in temps with cold initially not being able to hold on in the south initially, different story up north.  Impactual cold/snowy UK wide last week to 10 days

 

BFTP

 

A little update, I revised my CET down to 4.9c.  The watch period remains for Xmas week....indeed I think get to where you want to be for Xmas as there could be very difficult conditions....indeed I believe we are being lined up for serious winter conditions.......As identified in my original LRF beginning of Nov...and very interesting on comments coming from GP and other sources.  

Also for me this week will produce wintry conditions, especially towards the end of the week where we could see snow in places not yet forecast.  This doesn’t mean widespread lowland snow but means it won’t be confined to Scottish or far north mountains either as the cold pM air digs south.

trigger time is 7/8/9 Dec ( of note it will be 3rd solar hit of Dec 1st, a hit due 5th and then 8/9th,  from Coronal Holes..something I mentioned could be of big relevance this winter as although not unprecedented...not very common at all) for more widespread cold to cover the UK but I feel that this blocking won’t totally grip us from that point as the Atlantic has some say. I think a little to and fro but cold generally there and then taking real hold last 3rd.

It doesn’t take much for the temps to tumble..look at tonight for example.

 

BFTP

 

 

 

 

Edited December 3, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Seasonal Trim]

Gonna post in here as to not derail the MOD thread. But I'm still not convinced about the cold spell showing for next week. Get these cold charts down to 72/96hrs and I'll star to get excited.

[iceman1991]

6 minutes ago, Nizzer said:

Gonna post in here as to not derail the MOD thread. But I'm still not convinced about the cold spell showing for next week. Get these cold charts down to 72/96hrs and I'll star to get excited.

I’m with you nizzer been there to many times and especially where met offfice aren’t  mentioning it as well 

[matt111]

Carrying on the conversation from the other thread, in the right place, snow at any times nice but the problem certainly down here in the far south is it doesn't stick around long if you get any settling snow after mid-Feb with the strengthening sun and longer days. 

[SLEETY]

in this country you take snow whatever month it falls  in it’s  not that common  for snow to last long at sea level whatever the month,and snow is more likely in feb and march than Dec.The point the original poster failed to mention.

Edited December 4, 2018 by SLEETY