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Winter 2018/19


syed2878

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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia

First lying snow of the season here yesterday (only about a centimetre and it melted in the afternoon). There was more snow this afternoon but it struggled to stick.

Probably looking at cold rain rather than snow for the next few days but the latest ECM puts me firmly in the freezer in about a week's time. Fingers crossed....

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
10 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

First lying snow of the season here yesterday (only about a centimetre and it melted in the afternoon). There was more snow this afternoon but it struggled to stick.

Probably looking at cold rain rather than snow for the next few days but the latest ECM puts me firmly in the freezer in about a week's time. Fingers crossed....

It is looking promising for us in the central European contingent... I have a run of ice days from now until the weekend which is a decent effort for November.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Question for folks with the time to tear through the analogues. Which was the last November (even if not especially cold) to see a run of 10 days or more with essentially constant easterlies?

 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
14 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Ok granted technically a green christmas still. I'd take a cold frosty one, with the frost lingering all day to produce a 'white' scene at least. I remember 1992 very well that was a green christmas but with lots of frost.

I'm gearing up for my thoughts on winter towards end of the week - and I see signs that the atlantic could be a very bit player this year, just as it has been since February- increasing the chances of colder conditions prevailing.

I’ll take any type of cold variety, with cloud, sunshine or snow, so long as it isn’t the mild sunny one like 1987. 

Mild and sunny, actually quite warmish, is the last thing I need. 87 was at the time a very unseasonal Christmas Day in London.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Question for folks with the time to tear through the analogues. Which was the last November (even if not especially cold) to see a run of 10 days or more with essentially constant easterlies?

 

2010 was the last time I remember November being this cold, although 2012 and 16, and 17 had chilly spells.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

2010 was the last time I remember November being this cold, although 2012 and 16, and 17 had chilly spells.

We need to keep things firmly in perspective here; the last few days have been chilly, with a somewhat benign easterly, but it isn't exceptional by any stretch of the imagination. You can bet that any waft of a winter easterly from now on will generate sensational headlines from usual suspects in the media - in fact I think it's already started with images of empty supermarket shelves. 

Looks like a few chilly days with a wintry mix of showers before an upward trend in the temps, although rain levels are expected to be a feature. All standard fare for the time of year. 

Longer term, there really is nothing but conjecture in terms of what the winter will bring, so hunches along the lines of  "I feel January will be the coldest/snowiest month" or "expect a backloaded winter" etc etc is guess work at best. Just look at those that got caught out last week when there were (tentative) signals that we were mirroring the third period of November 2010 - we've all been here before and level heads are called for. 

Also, if the Meto aren't on board then neither am I

Edited by Easton Luna Boys
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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
32 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

We need to keep things firmly in perspective here; the last few days have been chilly, with a somewhat benign easterly, but it isn't exceptional by any stretch of the imagination. You can bet that any waft of a winter easterly from now on will generate sensational headlines from usual suspects in the media - in fact I think it's already started with images of empty supermarket shelves. 

Looks like a few chilly days with a wintry mix of showers before an upward trend in the temps, although rain levels are expected to be a feature. All standard fare for the time of year. 

Longer term, there really is nothing but conjecture in terms of what the winter will bring, so hunches along the lines of  "I feel January will be the coldest/snowiest month" or "expect a backloaded winter" etc etc is guess work at best. Just look at those that got caught out last week when there were (tentative) signals that we were mirroring the third period of November 2010 - we've all been here before and level heads are called for. 

Also, if the Meto aren't on board then neither am I

I’ll call for an 87-88 type winter then lol. 

Joking aside, I get what you mean. 

It was like when we had the snowfall during late February/early March last winter. My cousin said she never remembers it being as cold or as bad before. I had to remind her, that 2010 and 2009 were just as bad for cold and snow, but she has a very short memory and doesn’t pay attention to the weather lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
21 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I’ll call for an 87-88 type winter then lol. 

Joking aside, I get what you mean. 

It was like when we had the snowfall during late February/early March last winter. My cousin said she never remembers it being as cold or as bad before. I had to remind her, that 2010 and 2009 were just as bad for cold and snow, but she has a very short memory and doesn’t pay attention to the weather lol.

Yes, it's something that we've heard a lot from non forum member types - that this year's easterly at the end of February/beginning of March was exceptionally cold, when actually, while temperatures in lowland England and Wales for the time of year (effectively early Spring less the last day of winter) were considerably below average without a doubt, they were not of course comparable to 1991, 2009/10 etc because it was so late in the season (or early in the next one depending on whether you use the meteorological seasons or not). That said, it was quite a remarkable spell of weather. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Usually right at the end of November...so just over a week away (not sure who is doing it this week, sometimes not just one person).

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
3 hours ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

Yes, it's something that we've heard a lot from non forum member types - that this year's easterly at the end of February/beginning of March was exceptionally cold, when actually, while temperatures in lowland England and Wales for the time of year (effectively early Spring less the last day of winter) were considerably below average without a doubt, they were not of course comparable to 1991, 2009/10 etc because it was so late in the season (or early in the next one depending on whether you use the meteorological seasons or not). That said, it was quite a remarkable spell of weather. 

It was, and still will be remembered as the coldest and snowiest spell of weather for the majority of people living in lowland Britain. 

I remember during the time of the snow 2018, it seemed like the first time we had a proper dumping since December 2010.

Feb 2012, and January 2013 provided a day of snowfall, but Beast 2018 was definitely a return to proper thick snowfall.

Maybe this is a sign of things to come over the next year or two.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
On 21/11/2018 at 16:15, Easton Luna Boys said:

Yes, it's something that we've heard a lot from non forum member types - that this year's easterly at the end of February/beginning of March was exceptionally cold, when actually, while temperatures in lowland England and Wales for the time of year (effectively early Spring less the last day of winter) were considerably below average without a doubt, they were not of course comparable to 1991, 2009/10 etc because it was so late in the season (or early in the next one depending on whether you use the meteorological seasons or not). That said, it was quite a remarkable spell of weather. 

For the CET, it was the coldest 28th February (at -3.6c) since 1785 (-3.8c). It was the joint coldest 1st March (-3.5c) on record since 1785 (-3.5c). A new UK record low maximum for Spring/March was recorded. Severe blizzard was recorded here in Ireland with depths not seen at least since January 1982 and maybe even longer for some like 1947, 1933 or 1917. Sounds pretty exceptional to me.... do feel you're down playing the Beast from the East 2018 period a bit unnecessarily. 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
On 20/11/2018 at 21:24, reef said:

Today just highlights how rubbish the two easterlies were here in February and March. We barely managed a cm of snow in each of those events yet today with a similar but milder flow we've seen 16.4mm of rain.

It was either just very unlucky or the North Sea was too cold by then.

Here in Bristol they produced best, in terms of cold and snow, late Winter and early Spring in my lifetime....bar none.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Here are my thoughts on the winter ahead - (early this year, as won't be around now until early Dec).

I'm basing them on trends and features experienced since Spring, which in the main have held position since, in particular what has happened this autumn (an atlantic that hasn't got going), the position of the jetstream and solar energy/ENSO state. 

December - A generally cold month, possibly becoming very cold later on. Rainfall levels below average, though could be some short bursts of heavy long lasting precipitation at times, both of the rain and snow variety, more likely snow in the second half of the month, and rain first half but not exclusively so especially in the north. Expecting the first 10 days or so to be mixed, with atlantic influence struggling to exert its hold, but having enough energy to produce rain at times, hill snow, and maybe transient snow to low levels in the north. Frost under clear skies, average temps in the north, mild in the south. From mid-month high pressure lurking to the NE will ridge into the UK holding off the atlantic again and we enter a quiet frosty cold spell, with fog possible. In the run up christmas, low pressure will have a go from the SW, but fail, high pressure will ridge north west and hence we could see a notable very cold spell with snow. Alternatively we might see a more battleline scenario with fronts getting stuck over the country and a wintry messy mix ensues but the eventual winner will still be heights to the north, so by month end very cold. 

January - Cold, with a good chance of a very cold spell especially mid month. Battleground scenarios, low pressure to the SW/S, high pressure to the north/north east. Jetstream to our south throughout.

February - A breakdown possible with high pressure gradually waning to the north, but some further snow at times.

A cold winter, very cold and snowy middle, milder wetter start and end. 

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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.

Here's my unscientific forecast for each month. I think that December will start mild or even very mild with SWerlies but from around the 12th-ish onwards cold and blocked weather will dominate with (hopefully) some snowy and frosty easterlies in the run-up to Christmas before Christmas itself sees heights hold over the U.K. giving a beautifully sunny and quiet Christmas period... 3.2-4.1

...however in January I predict that things will go awry and the heights slip south and we get a blowtorch mild January with raging zonality, stormy and mild.  5.5-6.5

February will be a more anticyclonic month and cold at times (especially toward the end of the month) but to balance this there will be a spring/summer like spell sometime around the 16th with sunny skies and temperatures into the mid-to-upper teens, something like 1998 or 2012. 4.4-5.6

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

 

We've known this for months...weak to moderate El Nino has been on the cards as well (possible Modoki), I'm sure Chris has other reasons but maybe it's the recent resurgence to that dreaded SW/NE dreaded jet showing up at precisely when winter starts has made him suggest this...

I'll be surprised if this winter is mild, with a raging jet and a constant conveyor belt of depressions similar to 2013/14 but it is the British Isles.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland

This is what Winters with similar October Eurasian snow cover (using Cohen's index) to 2018 look like reanalysed.... contrary to what Chris says.

914059215_WintersfollowingOctoberswithslightlyaboveaverageEurasiansnowcoverextentsimilarto2018.thumb.png.7e016a007604de992e21e532af2fe449.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
51 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

This is what Winters with similar October Eurasian snow cover (using Cohen's index) to 2018 look like reanalysed.... contrary to what Chris says.

914059215_WintersfollowingOctoberswithslightlyaboveaverageEurasiansnowcoverextentsimilarto2018.thumb.png.7e016a007604de992e21e532af2fe449.png

Is that all of the data there - ie- are all the years visible please? and what is meant by 'similar'? - as i will do some further investigation into this when i have time. Results could be interesting

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is that all of the data there - ie- are all the years visible please? and what is meant by 'similar'? - as i will do some further investigation into this when i have time. Results could be interesting

Years generated or chosen from Cohen's Eurasian snow cover anomalies graph for October 1967-2018 (using data from Rutger's Snow Lab). 2018 was only relatively above average going by this graph and I picked the closest years I can see to 2018 for the analogue. You may pick some slightly different years than what I chose there which is fine as we all have our own different interpretations. The years were 2010-11 (westerly QBO), 2004-05 (weak El Nino), 2003-04 (transitioning to westerly QBO), 2000-01, 1999-00 (westerly QBO), 1996-97 (transitioning to westerly QBO), 1982-83 (westerly QBO), 1978-79 (slowly transitioning to easterly QBO - doesn't get there until the mid Spring of 1979), 1973-74. 

1543073486_EurasiansnowcoveranomaliesforeveryOctoberfrom1967to2018.thumb.jpg.fa6ef24ed5aa8c7a75a42f72e8d042a2.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, BruenSryan said:

Years generated or chosen from Cohen's Eurasian snow cover anomalies graph for October 1967-2018 (using data from Rutger's Snow Lab). 2018 was only relatively above average going by this graph and I picked the closest years I can see to 2018 for the analogue. You may pick some slightly different years than what I chose there which is fine as we all have our own different interpretations. The years were 2010-11 (westerly QBO), 2004-05 (weak El Nino), 2003-04 (transitioning to westerly QBO), 2000-01, 1999-00 (westerly QBO), 1996-97 (transitioning to westerly QBO), 1982-83 (westerly QBO), 1978-79 (slowly transitioning to easterly QBO - doesn't get there until the mid Spring of 1979), 1973-74. 

1543073486_EurasiansnowcoveranomaliesforeveryOctoberfrom1967to2018.thumb.jpg.fa6ef24ed5aa8c7a75a42f72e8d042a2.jpg

Thanks, as long as the scandinavian snow cover build up was similar as well - i look for that.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
On 21/11/2018 at 19:20, Sunny76 said:

It was, and still will be remembered as the coldest and snowiest spell of weather for the majority of people living in lowland Britain. 

I remember during the time of the snow 2018, it seemed like the first time we had a proper dumping since December 2010.

Feb 2012, and January 2013 provided a day of snowfall, but Beast 2018 was definitely a return to proper thick snowfall.

Maybe this is a sign of things to come over the next year or two.

This depends on location. Here in Leeds Jan 13 was epic and provided my 3rd highest snow totals in the past 20 years. It was also different to both 2010 winters because it was frontal.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

I am surprised he mentions Cohen's snow index. I didn't think that would be that considered by the larger community. Infact, he doesn't even mention solar activity. I would have thought that would be of importance. 

Edited by Weather-history
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