Winter 2018/19

[Froze were the Days]

or West based QBO (high pressure closer to Greenland/Labrador sea) and we're on the periphery of cold air at times and Europe largely milder...who knows?

[Dave Kightley]

5 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Updated JAMSTEC winter forecast for 2018/19...and they haven't backed down, still going for a colder one in NW Europe (infact just our tiny Isle and a part of Norway)

 

With only the U.K below average.. Maybe that is the P.V setting itself up over us 

[damianslaw]

As I will be away from 24 Nov, will have to give my thoughts on the winter ahead a week or so earlier than usual. We have seen an abnormal pattern since Feb and this looks like continuing, indeed the synoptics we have evolving now are very abnormal.

[Hotspur62]

As we enter the last 2 weeks of Autumn it seems that some on the MAD thread have given up on winter 2018/19 already as things Model wise, have taken a slight turn for the worse in terms of the predicted cold spell that has shown up on a regular basis over the last week or so.However,for me the theme and trend still looks pretty blocked for the next few weeks and i feel that we are in a so much better position at this time of year than we have been for the last half dozen years.Indeed, the LR Models seem pretty upbeat on a Blocked Winter for the UK.That is not to say that there will not be milder spells and the Atlantic will of course pass through the UK from time to time-for me that is a given.What might be interesting as we progress through winter and temps gradually drop is that i think there will be battleground situations where the systems come up against the colder air.As has been the case since the Spring this year i have seen many occasions where the Atlantic has come in but by the time it reaches the SE/E England it has very little precip on it as the High to our East has held firm.I see this pattern continuing over the next 3 months tbh and that is why i am optimistic that the UK will see more snow than an average winter(think Midlands could do well this year in battleground scenarios).Although we might not be successful in seeing the much sought after snow in the next 7-10 days we must remember it is only 16th November and we have a good 3-3 1/2 months to look forward to and i hope wintry weather rewards the enthusiasm and great posts from so many great and knowledgable posters that NW forums have.

I think we may look back come late March 2019 and say "Yeah that was a pretty good winter in terms of cold and snow for the UK"!!

 

[brmbrmcar]

For around the past month, I thought that this winter was looking quite good, nothing to me suggested any huge records being broken but there was certainly some snow and cold potential, and it looked to me like it would come around January, which is always a good time. Honestly, even when the graphs went bad medium-term in the past couple of days, it didn't really change my mind. But looking at everything now, I've had to think that the winter is going to be a huge disappointment, I wasn't following it nearly as much last year but except from the start and the end, when I wasn't expecting it, it seemed close to being something good but it never really was. I'm not predicting that there will be no cold spells, but I don't see them being anything special. Hopefully there will be good lowland snow at some point, but I worry that it won't happen at all. Looking at all the predictions, and the 'good' graphs, I only imagine it either going to the mild side or just never being cold enough.

But, as always, you can quite definitely disregard everything I've said. As you can probably tell, I have very little knowledge of predicting weather, and what to most people might be a decent winter to me isn't good enough. It'll be interesting to be told and to see how wrong I am.

(also sorry if I sent this a bunch of times by accident, I think I got logged out)

[summer blizzard]

Have to say that people are much too negative regarding prospects in the model thread. To enter winter with what is likely to be the third coldest final third to November in 13 years (05 and 10 i suspect will be the only ones colder) with generally positive northern blocking is great news. That we don't get the cold air in for December on the first try is not a shock and our focus should be on an anti-Atlantic holding pattern rather than despondency. 

[brmbrmcar]

When people were seeing models the great models, I thought that most people would take it much more negatively than they actually have (the models are still good). Though to me it never did seem amazing, someone can tell me how I'm wrong about this, comparing it with other years. My worries are that after December (where the blocking may only exist around the start and second half) it will just be a disappointing rest of the winter. Even in December where the blocking is good I don't see anything like in 2010 happening again. It's definitely very probably better than average but still not enough for most of us - I was wanting an overall Winter CET of below 0c .

I want to ask, how you think December would compare to something like 2010.

[Roger J Smith]

I just had a look at the CET values for all winters 1772 to 2017 that had a mild start to November (CET 8.0 or higher on 15th). There were 68 such cases out of 246 so in this filter we have the warmest 27%. (this month is currently ranked 9th at 10.0 after 16 days, usually these provisionals slip down a bit in the final numbers so more likely around 12th to 15th, middle of this pack anyway). 

There are basically no indications of cold or mild winter tendencies. The average CET quickly resets to normal values by early December in the sample and stays there (on average of the 68 years) through the following four months. 

This is the sample set found (the winters will include Jan-Feb of following years), and I list them by first 82 years, middle 82 and last 82 to show a bit of the historical trend (almost half are in the last third of the period):

1772, 1779, 1792, 1795, 1811, 1817, 1818, 1821, 1822, 1827, 1830, 1834, 1839, 1840, 1847, 1849, 1850, 1852, 1853, 1857, 1866, 1881,

1889, 1894, 1895, 1897, 1898, 1899, 1900, 1902, 1904, 1907, 1913, 1914, 1916, 1931, 1938, 1939, 1943, 1946, 1947, 1948, 1951, 1953, 1955

1963, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1990, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015

_________________________________________________

However, there are some cases here that preceded cold winters. So I ran the filter again using only those cases that dropped from whatever value they had on 15th to 7.0 or lower on 30th. That reduced the set to 16 of the 68 cases.

1779, 1827, 1834, 1849, 1866, 1889, 1902, 1904, 1907, 1943, 1955, 1973, 1990, 2005, 2008, 2010

________________________________________________________________

This set of rapidly cooling Novembers included two that went directly into very cold (1904, 2010) ... 1947 could be included in the list as it dropped from a higher value than most to 7.2. 1978 should probably also be added as it dropped as much as many of those that reached 7.0, from a much higher starting point than many of them. 1852 looks fairly similar to this month so far. The average for this set (without 1852, 1947 or 1978 included) dropped considerably below the larger set from about 18th November to end of December into 1-2 Jan when it reached its lowest average values (2.2 C), then stayed fairly close to average by second half of January although slightly colder than the control group, then went 0.5 deg above the control set in February and March. 

I think what this says is that a colder turn after a mild start to November can often result in a cold December (and even late November) with the cold possibly lingering into early January, but this is generally not a good sign for cold in February. One counter-example from the reduced list would be 1955-56. Another is 1990-91. The best prospect for very cold in January would be 1779-80. 

Some of the earlier winters are probably not familiar to many reading this, so I summarize the temperature trends of all sixteen plus the three that I think may be similar to this year (1852, 1947, 1978) ... the NOV numbers are CET for 15th and 30th of the months. 

MILD to COLD NOV ___ DEC __ JAN __ FEB __ MAR ___ Year of Jan-Mar

1779 ___ 8.7 to 5.7 ____ 3.1 ____--0.9 ___ 2.1 ___ 7.9 ____ 1780

1827 ___ 8.8 to 6.9 ____ 6.9 _____5.1 ___ 5.2 ___ 6.6 ____ 1828

1834 ___ 8.7 to 6.7 ____ 5.6 _____2.9 ___ 5.7 ___ 5.8 ____ 1835

1849 ___ 8.8 to 6.6 ____ 3.4 _____0.7 ___ 6.4 ___ 4.7 ____ 1850

1852 ___ 9.9 to 7.9 ____ 7.7 _____5.1 ___ 0.6 ___ 3.4 ____ 1853

1866 ___ 9.0 to 6.9 ____ 6.1 _____1.2 ___ 6.9 ___ 3.1 ____ 1867

1889 ___ 8.2 to 6.9 ____ 3.3 _____5.7 ___ 3.1 ___ 6.2 ____ 1890

1902 ___ 8.7 to 6.8 ____ 4.6 _____4.2 ___ 7.1 ___ 7.1 ____ 1903

1904 ___ 8.4 to 5.2 ____ 3.7 _____3.6 ___ 5.2 ___ 6.8 ____ 1905

1907 ___ 8.3 to 6.5 ____ 4.6 _____2.5 ___ 5.3 ___ 4.3 ____ 1908

1943 ___ 8.1 to 6.3 ____ 3.5 _____5.8 ___ 3.6 ___ 5.2 ____ 1944

1947 ___ 9.3 to 7.2 ____ 5.1 _____5.4 ___ 4.7 ___ 8.3 ____ 1948

1955 ___ 9.3 to 7.0 ____ 5.4 _____3.6 ___--0.2 ___6.2 ____ 1956

1973 ___ 8.8 to 6.0 ____ 4.9 _____5.9 ___ 5.4 ___ 5.8 ____ 1974

1978 ___10.5 to 8.5 ____ 3.9 ____--0.4___ 1.2 ___ 4.7 ____ 1979

1990 ___ 8.2 to 6.9 ____ 4.3 _____3.3 ___ 1.5 ___ 7.9 ____ 1991

2005 ___ 9.8 to 6.2 ____ 4.4 _____4.3 ___ 3.7 ___ 5.2 ____ 2006

2008 ___ 8.4 to 7.0 ____ 3.5 _____3.0 ___ 4.1 ___ 7.0 ____ 2009

2010 ___ 8.2 to 5.2 ____--0.7 ____ 3.7 ___ 6.4 ___ 6.7 ____ 2011

___________________________________________________________

So in this list, several quite cold months appear, Jan 1780, Jan 1850, Feb 1853, Jan 1867, Feb 1956, Jan 1979 and the mid-month Jan 91-Feb 91 which was subzero also, and Dec 2010.

These seem like fairly good signs to me. The only really mild winters in this group are 1827-28, 1943-44 and 1973-74. 

Edited November 17, 2018 by Roger J Smith

[Don]

Thanks Roger.  Are your thoughts for the coming winter the same as they were last month when you gave your forecast?

[Roger J Smith]

Yes, same thoughts, don't mind the slow development, the really good winters seem to make a strong move towards cold around 15-20 December.

North American pattern setting up about as expected also, so no red flags, just waiting to see how it unfolds now. 

False starts on GFS are often mirror images of what eventually happens, I think they pick up on a tendency that some other energy cycle then overrules for the time being, but it's a tendency that will try its luck again.  

[Summer Sun]

Former BBC weather forecaster John Hammond has updated his monthly forecast

Month Ahead – Cold snap or longer-lasting freeze?

The main headlines

• Chilly spell arrives
• Limited impacts initially
• Risk of more severe cold later

You can read his full forecast here https://weathertrending.com/2018/11/16/cold-snap-long-freeze/ you must sign up to read it

Edited November 18, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

A look at ECMWF & Meteo France for winter

 

[Don]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

A look at ECMWF & Meteo France for winter

 

Great update from Meteo France.  ECMWF not so good, but not dreadful either.

[Windysun1]

19 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Yes, same thoughts, don't mind the slow development, the really good winters seem to make a strong move towards cold around 15-20 December.

North American pattern setting up about as expected also, so no red flags, just waiting to see how it unfolds now. 

False starts on GFS are often mirror images of what eventually happens, I think they pick up on a tendency that some other energy cycle then overrules for the time being, but it's a tendency that will try its luck again.  

Hi Roger, 

Looking at your winter forecast, just wondering what your take on February might be? You say it maybe peak of snowfall. Are you thinking that there maybe some kind of battle ground scenario where the Atlantic maybe encroaching at this stage and coming up against still quiet stubborn HP so quiet slow moving fronts? Or am I taking up your thoughts completely wrong (which would be quiet normal for me : ) )

Thanks.

[damianslaw]

19 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Yes, same thoughts, don't mind the slow development, the really good winters seem to make a strong move towards cold around 15-20 December.

North American pattern setting up about as expected also, so no red flags, just waiting to see how it unfolds now. 

False starts on GFS are often mirror images of what eventually happens, I think they pick up on a tendency that some other energy cycle then overrules for the time being, but it's a tendency that will try its luck again.  

Yes agree, winter 09/10 a good example of this. The period immediately before christmas tends to be when the northern hemipshere enters its winter base state, just as the period before the summer solstice tends to be a time when the summer base states into situ. 

 

[Sunny76]

Not a weather expert by any stretch of the imagination. But, for some reason I feel mid to late January will bring the coldest and snowiest period of this coming winter, perhaps something similar to last winter, and with snow depths closely compared to 1987, or 1991.

Christmas will be dry and green, but will be the coldest since 2010. 

Just my thoughts.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

now, where are the shorts

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looking cold in Scandinavia now

He came from where the winds are cold...

Cry wolf

Time to worry now

 

Edited November 19, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[Hotspur62]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

now, where are the shorts

That would give us temps of 12-14 degrees i would think.Very respectable but probably wont verify!!Models are having enough trouble at T+144 atm lol!! 

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Not a weather expert by any stretch of the imagination. But, for some reason I feel mid to late January will bring the coldest and snowiest period of this coming winter, perhaps something similar to last winter, and with snow depths closely compared to 1987, or 1991.

Christmas will be dry and green, but will be the coldest since 2010. 

Just my thoughts.

Christmas dry and green but coldest since 2010 - exchange the green for white then - i.e. lots of frost. That would be good. Mind we've had a long run of mild or very mild christmas days.

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Christmas dry and green but coldest since 2010 - exchange the green for white then - i.e. lots of frost. That would be good. Mind we've had a long run of mild or very mild christmas days.

Similar to the 1980s. 

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Christmas dry and green but coldest since 2010 - exchange the green for white then - i.e. lots of frost. That would be good. Mind we've had a long run of mild or very mild christmas days.

A cold day on Christmas Day, and dry will still mean it’s a green Christmas. 

 

[reef]

Today just highlights how rubbish the two easterlies were here in February and March. We barely managed a cm of snow in each of those events yet today with a similar but milder flow we've seen 16.4mm of rain.

It was either just very unlucky or the North Sea was too cold by then.

[RhysWales]

28 minutes ago, reef said:

Today just highlights how rubbish the two easterlies were here in February and March. We barely managed a cm of snow in each of those events yet today with a similar but milder flow we've seen 16.4mm of rain.

It was either just very unlucky or the North Sea was too cold by then.

Also shows the drastic differences a couple of hundred miles can make in our island climate. I would have thought you would have done a lot better than me! In one of the milder areas here in SE Wales and don't usually do particularly well from easterlies, but had more snow on 1st March than December 2010 here. Then a good fall a fortnight later too. Shame it all disappeared so quickly. Fingers crossed for a sustained easterly in mid Winter this year!

[damianslaw]

22 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

A cold day on Christmas Day, and dry will still mean it’s a green Christmas. 

 

Ok granted technically a green christmas still. I'd take a cold frosty one, with the frost lingering all day to produce a 'white' scene at least. I remember 1992 very well that was a green christmas but with lots of frost.

I'm gearing up for my thoughts on winter towards end of the week - and I see signs that the atlantic could be a very bit player this year, just as it has been since February- increasing the chances of colder conditions prevailing.