Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Winter 2018/19


syed2878

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
35 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

LOLOLOL, you do realise global temperatures are much warmer nowadays compared to what they used to be? Its just an ensemble mean also so some members may show very different patterns. When you look at the 2009/10 anomaly patterns then it looks entirely reasonable.

image.thumb.png.1e4b8758f8eb80a41ffd5d3e62f5b891.png

That 2009 chart looks different to the forecast anomaly chart from GLOSEA, there is much more cold on that chart that you've posted.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain

Hi guys been reading your comments on this forum all very interesting especially during run up to winter anyone watch gavsweathervids latest winter update video especially with the  analogues  at the end Very interesting hear  the excitement in gavs voice when going through them show a lot cold winters got a feeling about this year 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That 2009 chart looks different to the forecast anomaly chart from GLOSEA, there is much more cold on that chart that you've posted.

Of course but the warm anomalies are a lot warmer too. Thats because the ensemble mean shows the same SLP anomaly pattern.. though the SLP anomalies themselves for the 2009/10 season are a lot more profound.

Hence the warm and cold temperature anomalies for the 2009/10 mean temperature are of a greater magnitude. Yet the global temperature anomalies for this period were still well above the climatological average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Let's not get embroiled in a climate change or ice age argument in here, please, or more posts will go missing. 

As you were.

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Updated met office Ensemble-mean maps showing plenty of northern blocking over winter

2cat_20181101_mslp_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.ec73ed9a11716a9c9fa3c9f56590b4db.png2cat_20181101_mslp_months35_global_deter_public.thumb.png.0b2992c3ef94a9e3ff1dedfec43bd394.png

2cat_20181101_t850_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.d0f23630b8254f693ef7831f7a0ad983.png2cat_20181101_t850_months35_global_deter_public.thumb.png.5925b02644c8abca70307dd2a0cd2be3.png

That is some flip!!

Jan-Feb-Mar is a stunner of an anomaly

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Wow, a great update from the GLOSEA model!  I wonder what the Met Office make of it?

Edited by Don
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

 

This time last year I remember posting a chart of the reconstructed 1962 November SSTs saying that they were the polar opposite across the Atlantic to what we were seeing;  the waters west of Spain and down to the Azures were warm:

2017

anomnight.11.9.2017.gif

This year, the Atlantic SSTA profile looks a lot closer to the 1962 setup and should support splitting of the jet stream to our West.  Obviously it's only part of the jigsaw that influences the winter pattern (I am not forecasting a 1962/63 re-run!) and the Pacific anomalies are different to 62 (and then there's the stratosphere etc), but at least it's better than last year (if you're after cold) when the Atlantic profile was not favourable.

2018

anomnight.11.8.2018.gif

Nov 1962 SSTA.png

Edited by beng
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain

Have a read guys Brian gaze going on about latest cold potential basically saying quite a high chance of cold start to winter link below ☃️☃️☃️❄️❄️

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx?type=buzz&id=4589&title=High+pressure+blocking

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I remember a couple of years ago doing some statistical analysis on the best possible state of the enso and the nao and found that for a negative nao there seemed to be a peak around the +1.2c Mark. We probably won't be far off that point come the DJF average I suspect.

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
On 07/11/2018 at 21:11, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Round 2...some more meat on the bones.

Since this LRF The sun is now running at 186 blank days and a current consecutive stretch of 20 spotless days.  What does this mean.....imo bouts of serious northern blocking and a wild meandering jetstream for this winter....with a displaced southerly track.

There are some new moon/apogee and full moon/perigee in close proximity 2nd week Dec, just before Xmas and also at beginning of 2nd week Jan.  

Also of mportance I think there will be an unusual but mot unprecedented more active period of Earth facing Coronal Holes, bringing strong solarwind pulses Earth bound.  This will perturb the jetstream.

So I think general snow in early December but the period of Christmas to early New Year is of particular note.  I think we will see some strong activity from the Atlantic meeting a very cold block thus forcing any advancements on an undercut scenario.  This period to bring ‘disruptive’ weather to the U.K. and Ireland.  I still feel early January will bring the coldest weather of winter with snowfields aplenty temps under HP conditions will plummet.  January to then continue generally very cold with another problematic period backend.

winter of discontent....I’m comfortable with the theme, as the idea is of disruption with LPs undercutting rather than record cold....although early Jan to watch for.  One of the next 3 to match a 20th century ‘great’....I am aware that we are (relatively) we are at a warmer point/phase.....but this one looks very interesting.

BFTP

 

 

 

So to go forward, a major Scandi block developing....something to watch for this winter.  I’ve mentioned on hunt for cold thread that the switch to cold pattern emerging midmonth and taking over last 3rd of month with an E or NE feed.......of cse guesstimating on my method......but I think we will see big extremes of cold and precip this winter .....this imo has a BIG chance of being a 20th century great (don’t go straight to 46/7...62/3 though) as a few other ‘greats’ are there.  Xmas period into New Year don’t be surprised if you are visiting to be ‘staying longer’ than expected...I’m really sitting up with developments this early....I was back in early Oct...now even more so

 

BFTP

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters/Hot summers
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport

Out of interest when is Net Weather winter forecast out this year? 

Love your enthusiasm Blast From the Past and hope you are spot on with your forecast! #winterofdiscontent

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

TWO winter forecast update 4

Quote

 

Winter forecast prelude

Winter 2018/19 update 4

13/11/2018

Summary

Since the last update in October the TWO view on the prospects for winter 2018/19 have not changed. There is considered to be an elevated chance of it being colder (or possibly much colder) than average.

The winter 2018/19 forecast covering December, January and February will be issued at the end of November.

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=4591&title=Winter+forecast+prelude

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

Anyone know what the ECMWF seasonal model is like? With the NAO forecast positive and QBO going westerly! I'm picking out the negativity in the update from Brian.. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
21 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Anyone know what the ECMWF seasonal model is like? With the NAO forecast positive and QBO going westerly! I'm picking out the negativity in the update from Brian.. 

Copernicus has the major European weather centre seasonals here:

https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/

UKMO, ECMWF, DWD (Germany), Meteo France, and CMCC (Italy). 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

Would highly recommend anyone to view the following winter forecast form one of the guys over in the US (his forecast is for US as one would expect) as the level of detail is incredible and also the guys over on the forum where like bunch of kids at candy shop when he released his forecast which says alot! His method for forecasting NAO region is interesting one and also there is mention of his high success rate with this. Was thinking this would be best place for this. Excitement is building from highly regarded mets for upcoming winter on both forums!

Cheers. 

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1490-isotherm’s-winter-outlook-2018-19/

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1490-isotherm’s-winter-outlook-2018-19/

Edited by Bullseye
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
35 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Would highly recommend anyone to view the following winter forecast form one of the guys over in the US (his forecast is for US as one would expect) as the level of detail is incredible and also the guys over on the forum where like bunch of kids at candy shop when he released his forecast which says alot! His method for forecasting NAO region is interesting one and also there is mention of his high success rate with this. Was thinking this would be best place for this. Excitement is building from highly regarded mets for upcoming winter on both forums!

Cheers. 

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1490-isotherm’s-winter-outlook-2018-19/

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1490-isotherm’s-winter-outlook-2018-19/

Looks pretty similar to GLOSEA prognosis for us

DJF-HEIGHT-ANOMALY-FCST.png

2cat_20181101_mslp_months35_global_deter

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

Good to see that the GLOSEA update seems to favour the cold in north america going to the south eastern states, and no big Aleutian high. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
36 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

Good to see that the GLOSEA update seems to favour the cold in north america going to the south eastern states, and no big Aleutian high. 

i wouldn't be so quick to dismiss high pressure in that area...can be your friend if you want cold outpouring into North West Europe...Dec 2010 is a good example of that

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

The major Professionals are all jumping/edging on board now,..5 weeks late?.  All we need now is for the models to have the signal right......I think they have the gist.  We are looking game on........now SOD LAW..... sod off

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

Ok Mods this maybe a bit of an off topic post and I know we have a met extended outlook thread but as this is the hunt for cold thread I just want to post this here to put some folks minds  at rest.  excellent set of outputs again today and ecmf looking better than the 00h output I for 1 not expecting deep cold yet and we are still in November. Saying that this encouraging from met extended outlook.

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Nov 2018 to Thursday 29 Nov 2018:
For much of next week it looks mostly cloudy with the best of the brighter spells in the west. Showers are possible, mainly in the east, and these could turn wintry over hills. It will be cold, especially in the south, with this accentuated by the brisk wind. Night frosts are likely and could become widespread at times. Towards the end of the week there is a chance of outbreaks of rain and hill snow affecting many areas at times, particularly in the south. Similar conditions will probably continue into the following weekend and the last week of November. There is also an increasing chance of snow falling to lower levels towards the end of November, mainly in the north and east.

UK Outlook for Friday 30 Nov 2018 to Friday 14 Dec 2018:
This period is likely to begin with a continuation of cold conditions. The best of any sunshine is likely in the west with generally cloudier skies in the east. There is a continued chance of showers for all areas with snow over the hills, mainly in the east and north. More organised areas of rain and hill snow could affect many areas at times, and there is a low risk of snow to low levels. Confidence is currently low towards the middle of December. However, there is an increased chance of less cold conditions arriving as weather systems moving in from the Atlantic.

Updated: 15:02 on Thu 15 Nov 2018 GMT.

Edited by Mapantz
Moved here from the model discussion thread.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Updated JAMSTEC winter forecast for 2018/19...and they haven't backed down, still going for a colder one in NW Europe (infact just our tiny Isle and a part of Norway)

 

temp2.glob.DJF2019.1nov2018.gif

Edited by Froze were the Days
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Updated JAMSTEC winter forecast for 2018/19...and they haven't backed down, still going for a colder one in NW Europe (infact just our tiny Isle and a part of Norway)

 

temp2.glob.DJF2019.1nov2018.gif

Strange one that. Seems to suggest Northerlies rather than Easterlies I would expect then.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...