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Winter 2018/19


syed2878

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

That December projection from the ECM update looks like it could be horrendously mild and bland. A big step back from previous updates. Always an issue when you see heights like that to the S and E of us. Troughing looks to anchor just to our west.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
1 hour ago, Geordiesnow said:

Do find it amusing how charts with all the fancy colours can cause so much unrest and debate on here. The devil will always be in the detail and who knows what the winter months will hold. Its very rare to get all 3 months being cold and when we look at past noticetable cold spells, it comes in exactly that, in spells and this year could be no different. 

Also just because a month in the long range may be trending mild does not mean snowfall won't occur either. 

I also say when the Arctic was much colder in the 60's and 70's with a stronger PV, we still got cold which shows meteologically speaking, blocking can still set up and start sending that cold down to the mid latitudes which is why I do prefer seeing the PV properly forming in the Arctic during the Autumn months instead of it being disrupted by ridges all the time which can dilute the cold somewhat. And of course its healithier for sea ice if the PV forms up there properly.

Great post as it's worth reminding ourselves that many of the Winters of the past which contained memorable cold spells also had mild spells within them too. Just look at Winter's 85/86 and 86/87 for example. Both had quite mild December's, but both were followed by major cold spells the other side of the New Year. On the flip side Winter's 81/82 and even more recently 10/11 were very cold early on but come February were much milder. As you rightly point out most of our cold Winters are characterized by spells of cold rather than many weeks or even months of it.

I also agree about sea ice as well as it can only be a good thing for the PV to help it longer term.

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Not a bad update from the Euro seasonal even if not as good as the last two. 

November and December see blocking to our north and east with the trough a bit too far west (some evidence in December with higher heights over southern Europe that the jet may break through for a time). 

January sees a Eurasian High so at the very least probably cool and frosty but the main cold resultant headed into Europe.

February and March see last year repeated. 

..

Not entirely an update i agree with (i see the strongest signal for cold in Jan) but then i am not a multi-million euro computer model. 

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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

To be honest, I'd rather have the cold late. A mild November and first half of December isn't the end of the world. Some of the 1980s winters were like that and they're memorable. It'd be a boon if we had a month like February 1986 repeated again just for the fun of it for us coldies. 

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

At this point in 2010, the coming big freeze still wasnt showing, GFS was still saying Atlantic influence, it happened in a very short timescale and was very interesting in here when the first signs showed.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
57 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

To be honest, I'd rather have the cold late. A mild November and first half of December isn't the end of the world. Some of the 1980s winters were like that and they're memorable. It'd be a boon if we had a month like February 1986 repeated again just for the fun of it for us coldies. 

I remember earlier this decade ' Weather History' pointing out that we were fortunate enough to experience a significantly below average month in the months of November (2010), December (2010), January (also 2010, earlier in the year) and even March (2013). Yet February had failed to join the club in this regard, though February's 2010 and now even 2018 were fairly below average, though not to an exceptional degree, with the last time that was achieved was all the way back in 1991. Therefore we're long overdue a very cold February the most. Who knows it could be 2019. Though obviously been the final month of meteorological Winter it's always going to be the longest beforehand to wait for, but when it's here it's here so wouldn't matter so much if it was to be come the time. Obviously my ideal Winter would be one where all 3 months are well below average with  constant snow cover from 1st December to 28th/29th February, though not even any of the best of the best such as 1946/47, 1962/63 or 1978/79 managed to achieve that.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
43 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I remember earlier this decade ' Weather History' pointing out that we were fortunate enough to experience a significantly below average month in the months of November (2010), December (2010), January (also 2010, earlier in the year) and even March (2013). Yet February had failed to join the club in this regard, though February's 2010 and now even 2018 were fairly below average, though not to an exceptional degree, with the last time that was achieved was all the way back in 1991. Therefore we're long overdue a very cold February the most. Who knows it could be 2019. Though obviously been the final month of meteorological Winter it's always going to be the longest beforehand to wait for, but when it's here it's here so wouldn't matter so much if it was to be come the time. Obviously my ideal Winter would be one where all 3 months are well below average with  constant snow cover from 1st December to 28th/29th February, though not even any of the best of the best such as 1946/47, 1962/63 or 1978/79 managed to achieve that.

Yes February has failed to deliver to consistent cold throughout, mind 2010 and 2013 were consistently chilly. First half of 2009 and 2012 was notably cold cancelled out by mild second halves, 2005 was a bit like 2018 a milder first half cancelled out by colder second half. Even 1991 fizzled out mid month. 1986 was the last time we had cold throughout the month.

I feel Dec 2010 was an oddity a once in a lifetime type month. I was however more encouraged by winter 09/10 a proper sustained winter overall, it started in mid December and didn't relent until well into March - many sceptics saying we won't see cold winters again..

March 2013 was preety exceptional as well.

As for this winter, I will give some musings in a couple of weeks time.. I can take a mild start provided the cold arrives in time for christmas, preferably the cold sets in about 14/15 Dec, 2009 was excellent in this respect.

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

In November 2008 there was very unsettled mild wet and windy weather up to the 20th November.  From the 21st November there was change with much colder conditions with wintry showers across many eastern areas of England during the 21st to the 23rd. Even in Scotland there were wintry showers in the Northern Isles, North and East of Scotland.  On the 22nd November there was  13 cm at Balmoral and Craibstone  in  Aberdeenshire and 8 cm at Fair Isle.  The wintry showers continued but this time for Western and Northern Scotland on the 28th, 29th and the 30rd with some freezing fog in Braemar where the maximum temperature was -2.6 °C on the 29th and a minimum temperature of -12.1 °C on the 30th. In England milder and drier weather which returned on the 25th and 26th November.  The rest of the month became unsettled with further rain which by the end of the month turned into sleet or snow. There was dense freezing fog on the 29th and 30th November which became widespread and it lingered in parts of Northern England and the Midlands. The coldest maximum temperatures in England was in Cumbria in Warcop with maximum of -3.0 °C  on the 29th and 30th November, with Shap having recorded -8.9 °C on the 30th.  There were also severe frosts on the 28th, 29th and 30th November. Wales also recorded low temperatures when Sennybridge in Powys reached a maximum temperature of -0.9 °C on the 29th and Trawsgoed reached a minimum temperature of 5.3 °C on the 30th. December for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland  was generally cold first half of then it became a milder, mainly dry, period towards Christmas before turning very cold by the new year which lasted 10 days. Rainfall mostly below normal. Sunshine generally above or well above normal. Temperatures around one degree below normal.  The rest of January 2009 it was generally cold with brief milder periods for Scotland, England and Wales. Northern Ireland had a cold first half January 2009 but got a little milder again but wet. The mean temperatures were well below average

Something similar could happen this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A reminder, if of course any is needed

The winter weather in mid-latitudes and sub-Arctic is also affected by many other factors than the sea ice extent and terrestrial snow cover. In addition to the greenhouse forcing, the NAO and AO, these factors include the heat content of Atlantic and Pacific Oceans (Sutton and Dong 2012; Bond and Harrison 2000), the El Nino (Seager et al. 2010), stratospheric dynamics (Karpechko and Manzini 2012), volcanic aerosols (Robock 2000), and solar forcing (Ineson et al. 2011)

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-014-9284-0

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
18 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I remember earlier this decade ' Weather History' pointing out that we were fortunate enough to experience a significantly below average month in the months of November (2010), December (2010), January (also 2010, earlier in the year) and even March (2013). Yet February had failed to join the club in this regard, though February's 2010 and now even 2018 were fairly below average, though not to an exceptional degree, with the last time that was achieved was all the way back in 1991. Therefore we're long overdue a very cold February the most. Who knows it could be 2019. Though obviously been the final month of meteorological Winter it's always going to be the longest beforehand to wait for, but when it's here it's here so wouldn't matter so much if it was to be come the time. Obviously my ideal Winter would be one where all 3 months are well below average with  constant snow cover from 1st December to 28th/29th February, though not even any of the best of the best such as 1946/47, 1962/63 or 1978/79 managed to achieve that.

I think thats the issue we have on here at times, people want it to be cold constantly and seemingly forgetting the fact the a mild start to winter is not the be all and end all. I think there is alot of hopecasting in the model thread at the moment and we see the infamous timeframes members think it will turn cold and when it turns out to be wrong, then we get another set of timeframe when it happens and so on, we see it every year. 

Whilst the 2nd half of November could be colder, there is certainly very little sign of that appearing in the outlook so its equally valid to say the 2nd half of November could be mild also and November 2018 will turn out to be well above average. 

We hear alot about winter 78/79 but apart from the very impressive set up around the latter parts of December and into January I think with the potent easterly, was the rest of the winter at all remarkable? I mean people don't mention Winter 90/91 as memorable, its always February 1991 thats get mentioned with a very nice looking easterly which if i remembered when I looked at the charts took quite a long while to fully set up properly but once it did, then it delivered the goods so it really is patience that will be needed. 

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
1 hour ago, Geordiesnow said:

I think thats the issue we have on here at times, people want it to be cold constantly and seemingly forgetting the fact the a mild start to winter is not the be all and end all. I think there is alot of hopecasting in the model thread at the moment and we see the infamous timeframes members think it will turn cold and when it turns out to be wrong, then we get another set of timeframe when it happens and so on, we see it every year. 

Whilst the 2nd half of November could be colder, there is certainly very little sign of that appearing in the outlook so its equally valid to say the 2nd half of November could be mild also and November 2018 will turn out to be well above average. 

We hear alot about winter 78/79 but apart from the very impressive set up around the latter parts of December and into January I think with the potent easterly, was the rest of the winter at all remarkable? I mean people don't mention Winter 90/91 as memorable, its always February 1991 thats get mentioned with a very nice looking easterly which if i remembered when I looked at the charts took quite a long while to fully set up properly but once it did, then it delivered the goods so it really is patience that will be needed. 

I completely agree with you concerning the fact that there's always charts in the far reaches of FI showing some potential every year. What I've always found though is often (if it is to actually happen) is any cold usually ends up occurring sometime later than when the models initially advertised, often dropping the idea only for it to reappear at shorter notice and even then can be delayed a bit. That's my perception anyway. I've decided just to go with the flow this year and be patient about it. Besides it's only early November so shouldn't expect much for a while yet anyway really. Although we've been fortunate enough to see some snowfall already here a week last Saturday when it was still October and have seen snow in November before now in years gone by, but such events were very much the exception as opposed to the norm. Mid to late December is really the time to look out for but even then would be pretty early for this part of the world and even if it weren't to happen then there's still loads more time for it to happen still. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
  • Met Eireann have launched their Be Winter Ready Campaign. Evelyn Cusack who is head forecaster in Met Eireann has said that this forth coming winter will see a lot of Snow,  She went into Climate Science part ie Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere etc. Met Eireamm dont usually come out with a winter forecst like this, Normally They are reserved as in  " Usual Irish Winters, Frost Storms and Snow on top of the mountain top"s. Since they started this campaign in 2011 I have never heard of them forecasring plenty of snow this early, There is great co-opertaion with the Britisn Met Office and Met Eireann. I really think there is something in what there are forecasting. 
  • time will only tell
Quote

 

 

Edited by DOdo
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Updated met office Ensemble-mean maps showing plenty of northern blocking over winter

2cat_20181101_mslp_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.ec73ed9a11716a9c9fa3c9f56590b4db.png2cat_20181101_mslp_months35_global_deter_public.thumb.png.0b2992c3ef94a9e3ff1dedfec43bd394.png

2cat_20181101_t850_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.d0f23630b8254f693ef7831f7a0ad983.png2cat_20181101_t850_months35_global_deter_public.thumb.png.5925b02644c8abca70307dd2a0cd2be3.png

That's fabulous!

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Nice to see the excitement growing so early. Let’s hope it continues throughout the winter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
35 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Updated met office Ensemble-mean maps showing plenty of northern blocking over winter

2cat_20181101_mslp_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.ec73ed9a11716a9c9fa3c9f56590b4db.png2cat_20181101_mslp_months35_global_deter_public.thumb.png.0b2992c3ef94a9e3ff1dedfec43bd394.png

2cat_20181101_t850_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.d0f23630b8254f693ef7831f7a0ad983.png2cat_20181101_t850_months35_global_deter_public.thumb.png.5925b02644c8abca70307dd2a0cd2be3.png

Mean Sea Level Pressure anomalies closely resemble those seen for winter 2009/10!  

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

let’s hope it comes off,it’s normally the complete opposite we see on those maps for the winter season .Are you sure the maps aren’t upside down  but surely scandinavia should be below average with Northern Blocking ?  not above.Maybe BFTP is correct,straight to the bin 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Thought  it would be interesting to assess the forecasts from November. Here are the forecasts since 2009...

November 2017 Months 2-4  Global Pressure 2017 - Forecast a bit more westerly then observed

November 2016 Months 2-4  Global Pressure 2016 - Not the greatest although SLP was much higher then average over NW Europe

November 2015 Months 2-4  Global Pressure 2015 - Very good although more of an anomalous SW'ly flow then NW

November 2014 Months 2-4  Global Pressure 2014 - A really good forecast

November 2013 Months 2-4  Global Pressure 2013 - Bust

November 2012 Months 2-4  Global Pressure Not great, SLP was lower then average over the Azores during the 2012 winter

November 2011 Months 2-4  Global Pressure 2011 - Not bad

November 2010 Months 2-4  Global Pressure 2010 - Nailed December 2010, though this was a winter of two halves

November 2009 Months 2-4  Global Pressure 2009 - A very good forecast

 Spot on    1
Very good    3
Decent    2
Poor    2
Bust    1
 

How will 2019's forecast fare?

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Lol so some know more than the Met Office/model programmers  

It's an ensemble mean anomaly map which will always show watered down values compared to any single ensemble (or the actual outcome), and when you apply, say ~0.5C warming since the reference averaging period, most of the world may come out warmer than average.

So better for interpretation/looking for patterns than taking the numbers at face value.

Edited by Evening thunder
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
29 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So the WORLD is warm except NW Europe....BINNED for me

BFTP

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it, Fred...The relative cold over NW Europe might just be due to your LIA footprint?

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
29 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So the WORLD is warm except NW Europe....BINNED for me

 

BFTP

LOLOLOL, you do realise global temperatures are much warmer nowadays compared to what they used to be? Its just an ensemble mean also so some members may show very different patterns. When you look at the 2009/10 anomaly patterns then it looks entirely reasonable.

image.thumb.png.1e4b8758f8eb80a41ffd5d3e62f5b891.png

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
28 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

LOLOLOL, you do realise global temperatures are much warmer nowadays compared to what they used to be? Its just an ensemble mean also so some members may show very different patterns. When you look at the 2009/10 anomaly patterns then it looks entirely reasonable.

image.thumb.png.1e4b8758f8eb80a41ffd5d3e62f5b891.png

 

29 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it, Fred...The relative cold over NW Europe might just be due to your LIA footprint?

Nope, the warm anomaly is too vast and too strong, UAH satellite data has shown that....anyway....we move forward and await serious winters ahead with further vast crop failures as we see now in the LIA footprint 

 

BFTP 

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