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Winter 2018/19


syed2878

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
56 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Didn't it used to come out as 'Joe Laminate Floori'

Always used to make me laugh that, for some reason!

By the way, anyone know what it is that comes out as 'Christmas pudding'? 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
18 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I personally doubt that year was really significant at all and the fact it was followed by a milder Winter was simply the law of averages playing out. After all there was a pretty big cluster (some much more so than others) of cold and snowy Winters preceding it and by that time it could be argued that simply at least one was long overdue. People often forget that with the exception of the last year's of the decade as well as the very start the 1970s was a decade full of mild Winters in the UK with little snow either. Also prior to the 1940s  cold and snowy Winters during the 20th century were a lot rarer than then onwards.

It should also be noted that taking the 1980s alone there were some significantly mild Winters or at least Winter periods in much of the 'cold and snowy' zones of North America much earlier than 1987. I believe the early Winters of 1982 and 1984 especially saw a couple of very mild December's in that part of the world. So it's unlikely that there was this sudden switch that was pressed in 1987 that made what would otherwise would have been just another cold Winter into a mild one for us. Besides from that we had a Winter with very cold and snowy spells in 1990/91, which was only 4 years after the previous one of 1986/87, which is hardly that long in the grand scheme of things, along with the odd one now and then throughout the 90s ( none quite as severe as that one, particularly in the south, but hardly abnormal all the same).

I agree with that, but I think climate change and global warming wasn’t a massive talking point, until at least 1984. 

I read somewhere, in one of those retro 80s books a while ago. And there was a feature in the March or April news of 84, that for the first time ‘there could be a warning of a greenhouse effect’.

I lived in Toronto for 18 months, and was also made aware of someone who told me just how balmy the Christmas period of 1982 was. It was into the mid to high teens, and another December shortly after that had very mild temps. 

Its interesting to pinpoint when it started to become a major issue.

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
18 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

At least 2007-08 was passable and somewhat interesting instead of complete rubbish like say 1987/88. 2007-08 had as you say freezing fog and some ice days during the mid month dry spell in December 2007, there was a brief easterly at the start of January which delivered some heavy snowfalls particularly over Northern Ireland; not sure about other regions of the UK, February was the sunniest on record (which I'll take very sunny conditions any day if I don't get the snow) and had some severe frost, March and April both had several instances of snowfalls. Found April 2008's snowfalls quite remarkable here and they were the last April snowfalls I have had since. 

Ah yes forgot about that april 08 and yes another easterly in February very sunny and colder later,excellent starlings displays here then,never seen nothing like it.

Winter including march last year was colder than 1977/78 also.

January 1978 looked pretty interesting with some stormy brief Nlys for the east anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
On 30/10/2018 at 15:35, Seasonality said:

This is just getting silly now, the thread has changed into the 'What I think the seasons should be' thread. Can we get back to discussing Winter 2018/19 and not reclassifying the seasons...

Since this post there have been hardly any comments that relate to Winter 2018/19. Can we please get back to discussing the forthcoming Winter?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
10 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Always used to make me laugh that, for some reason!

By the way, anyone know what it is that comes out as 'Christmas pudding'? 

M0DERN ERA

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Since this post there have been hardly any comments that relate to Winter 2018/19. Can we please get back to discussing the forthcoming Winter?

Its because the model thread is buzzing now as we are within touching distance of potentially the models showing snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its because the model thread is buzzing now as we are within touching distance of potentially the models showing snow.

Now that, feb, is one correlation whose veracity I do doubt!:80:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Now that, feb, is one correlation whose veracity I do doubt!:80:

Why, it happens every year, you get the build up on the snow cover, ENSO, winter and Strat threads and then you tend to see a pull back on all the others apart from the strat thread and an explosion on the model thread

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

How long did it take the weather patterns to return a more nornal cycle such as now ? 

2018 winter PV split also seemed to continue in to our summer hence the heatwave and drought. 

How long did it take for the PV to repair ? 

 

And is it possible that the PV could spilt again this winter creating amazing charts once more ...? 

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Winter has officially started here after a few goes through Sept and Oct currently -11c and snowing

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

The global warming trend is a gradual thing, but in individual locations such as the British Isles there is a lot of natural variability superimposed on it, and step-changes can and do happen for no apparent reason.  The step-change to milder winters around 1988 was particularly marked for the month of February, which had a CET average of 2.7C over the period 1978-87, and then an average of 5.3C in the period 1988-2002.  January also saw a step-change but it was less extreme.  On the other hand the very mild December of 1988 proved to be a one-off, and the Decembers of the 1990s were slightly cooler than those of the 1970s and 1980s - even the warmish December of 1994 was cooler than four of the Februarys of the 1990s.

The step-change in February was significantly down to a change in synoptics with a marked increase in the frequency of "westerly" Februarys.  I read a copy of the RMetS Weather Log for February 1988 several years ago and recall that the Weather Log noted that the near-absence of easterlies that month was unusual for recent Februarys, and then the Februarys of 1989 and 1990 were even more "westerly".  Meanwhile, the cooler Decembers owed a lot to a higher frequency of northerlies and easterlies.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

ECMWF seasonal now out

DrQj7DDU4AAE2Rd.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
On 02/11/2018 at 09:13, Seasonality said:

Didn't it used to come out as 'Joe Laminate Floori'

In the early days of Netweather it was Joe teddy beari, and then changed to Joe laminate floori!  There was also a new town called Sprunehorpe.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
33 minutes ago, jules216 said:

ECMWF seasonal now out

DrQj7DDU4AAE2Rd.jpg

Have you got the 500mb charts and the individual months please?

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Have you got the 500mb charts and the individual months please?

I have seen CONUS only, which can give you some idea

December looks just about neutral NAO and -AO

January UK Based High +AO

February -NAO, - AO

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
12 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I have seen CONUS only, which can give you some idea

December looks just about neutral NAO and -AO

January UK Based High +AO

February -NAO, - AO

Seen it now, Northern blocking in December but trough anchored to the W - battleground possible, Jan anticyclonic but possibly very cold with SE winds, Feb blocking and snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
17 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I have seen CONUS only, which can give you some idea

December looks just about neutral NAO and -AO

January UK Based High +AO

February -NAO, - AO

Thanks Jules

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 hour ago, jules216 said:

ECMWF seasonal now out

DrQj7DDU4AAE2Rd.jpg

Same every year 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

you can see all now on kachelmanwetter:

https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/monatsvorhersage/euro/europa/temperaturabweichung/20181201-0000z.html

 

The trend is now for pushing the cold further back. Last month and in September update the period NOV/DEC looked cold, now it looks mild.

Cold is forecast now for JAN/FEB not too dissimilar to CANSIPS update

 

image.thumb.png.40d50327b0b8a2f295b5a6195d712abc.png

Edited by jules216
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

January

image.thumb.png.041bd10453132f8a77bde9c6059cf7b6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

February

image.thumb.png.9e1f21af9fcff07c250daccd81946519.png

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
52 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Seen it now, Northern blocking in December but trough anchored to the W - battleground possible, Jan anticyclonic but possibly very cold with SE winds, Feb blocking and snow.

Two ways of looking at the update. 1) The cold is delayed somewhat or 2) A very early to mid 1980's esq scanario! 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Do find it amusing how charts with all the fancy colours can cause so much unrest and debate on here. The devil will always be in the detail and who knows what the winter months will hold. Its very rare to get all 3 months being cold and when we look at past noticetable cold spells, it comes in exactly that, in spells and this year could be no different. 

Also just because a month in the long range may be trending mild does not mean snowfall won't occur either. 

I also say when the Arctic was much colder in the 60's and 70's with a stronger PV, we still got cold which shows meteologically speaking, blocking can still set up and start sending that cold down to the mid latitudes which is why I do prefer seeing the PV properly forming in the Arctic during the Autumn months instead of it being disrupted by ridges all the time which can dilute the cold somewhat. And of course its healithier for sea ice if the PV forms up there properly.

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