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Winter 2018/19


syed2878

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Here is my winter forecast

November Average   

December Average a chance of a snowflake

January Average a chance of a snowflake

Feb Average a chance of drizzle with a snowflake

March very Marchy

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I'll be formulating thoughts on the UK winter during mid to late November, but for now I can hazard a guess as to the mean global temperatures for Winter 2018/19:

November - warm

December - warm

January - warm

February - warm

March - warm

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 hour ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I'll be formulating thoughts on the UK winter during mid to late November, but for now I can hazard a guess as to the mean global temperatures for Winter 2018/19:

November - warm

December - warm

January - warm

February - warm

March - warm

IF IPCC figures....you are too cool  

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Last year.

Winter 2017/18.

November cool.

December cold and exceptionally snowy.

January average.

February cold and cold atlantic making it through with snow at times and then exceptional cold snowy end.

March record breaking cold first half severe blizzards from russia

This year even more extreme.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Last year: (Essex)

Winter 2017/18

November: Average

December: Average, mixed conditions, brief snow

January: Mild

February: Cool thanks to a very cold end and snow (SSW)

Shows you just by going from the post above on our tiny Isle how areas vary...

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Posted
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin

2017/2018 November Cool, December Cold and Snowy, January First part mild second part Cold and Snowy. First part February average second part Bitterly cold and snowy

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

So November is part of winter now? 

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Posted
  • Location: M25 Herts/Bucks border And the NW
  • Location: M25 Herts/Bucks border And the NW

Meh! Astronomical Winter begins on 21st December, so according to Mother Nature we have what 7 weeks to go before then! Autumn it is then 

Even the dubious Met.O start of Winter is Dec 1st and we are way way not there yet. Unsure how or why November has made it into a Winter month, are people excited or what? 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
5 hours ago, Despicable Weather said:

Meh! Astronomical Winter begins on 21st December, so according to Mother Nature we have what 7 weeks to go before then! Autumn it is then 

Even the dubious Met.O start of Winter is Dec 1st and we are way way not there yet. Unsure how or why November has made it into a Winter month, are people excited or what? 

November starts to feel like a winter month, because of the lack of light and usually the arrival of colder weather. It’s still mild at times, but November does feel like a winter month. 

4 weeks time, the tree will be going up lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
43 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

November starts to feel like a winter month, because of the lack of light and usually the arrival of colder weather. It’s still mild at times, but November does feel like a winter month. 

4 weeks time, the tree will be going up lol.

But it's an Autumn month. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

But it's an Autumn month. 

Temperature yes, November on average is much milder than December, January and February and also March. However, in feel it does have wintry atmosphere, largely thanks to the lack of light, evenings are are darker than late January, and frost and fog can set in quickly. Northerly and easterly winds don't tend to have the same edge to them as in Dec-March, largely due to milder SST's and the fact the arctic and continent are milder than the winter season period.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ikast
  • Location: Ikast
51 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 

It will be interesting to see if unusually low solar activity has an impact on the coming winter. Geomagnetic Activity (AP Index) is very low for 2018, which should be extremely well correlated with the winter's NAO: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11200-014-0508-z And this should undoubtedly be linked with the stratosphere. The question is whether this is related to the shift to negative NAO in late October and November, when pressure differentials in South Greenland are reduced. It is very exciting to follow the development as we have moved into the sun minimum.
 

Edited by frederiksen90
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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
4 hours ago, Seasonality said:

But it's an Autumn month. 

I’m well aware of that lol. But, in many years gone by, November has in fact resembled a winter month. 1993, 2010, and 2017 had elements of a wintery feel. I know it’s the tail end of autumn, but most people will feel we are entering winter in November, because the darker evenings are well and truly here, plus the run up to Christmas begins. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

I’m well aware of that lol. But, in many years gone by, November has in fact resembled a winter month. 1993, 2010, and 2017 had elements of a wintery feel. 

And not forgetting the 2nd half of Nov 2005 etc

The cold season of 88/89 Nov was the most wintry month.

Edited by sundog
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50 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Sunspot blank days 176 now, so bigger than 200 well in sight and I am of the opinion that this is NOT cycle 24 Minima as that is 19/20 for me.  Jetstream really meridional and further clear signs of that.  I’ve said I’ll update more re potential dates of note, lunar modulating looking favourable and solar activity could be of extra interest too with an unusual high number of Earth facing Coronal Holes.....further jetstream meandering.  I’m thinking more and more that this winter ‘might’ match a 20th century great.....winter of discontent?

 

BFTP

What can we expect as we head into November??

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters/Hot summers
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
17 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Sunspot blank days 176 now, so bigger than 200 well in sight and I am of the opinion that this is NOT cycle 24 Minima as that is 19/20 for me.  Jetstream really meridional and further clear signs of that.  I’ve said I’ll update more re potential dates of note, lunar modulating looking favourable and solar activity could be of extra interest too with an unusual high number of Earth facing Coronal Holes.....further jetstream meandering.  I’m thinking more and more that this winter ‘might’ match a 20th century great.....winter of discontent?

 

BFTP

It is refreshing to see people share their thoughts, I couldn’t dream of making a forecast,  I really do hope you are right and kudos to you for being so bold with your thoughts.

I do believe that the low sun spot activity will have an impact on our weather, fingers crossed that you are bang on with your prediction. #winterofdiscontent ??⛄☃️

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
23 hours ago, Seasonality said:

But it's an Autumn month. 

Agreed..November and March now seemed to be classed as winter in the UK by some..i mean where i live November and March are definitely winter months..you could argue that October and April are also winter months..i mean Oct & April averages are pretty much on a par with a UK January...based on the last 30 years you could argue that in the UK Dec is an autumn month and Feb is spring!

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall England UK
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters
  • Location: Walsall England UK

This looks like being a deep minimum infact we seem to be entering a Grand Solar Minimum so I am optimistic about the next three winters and winter prospects for decades to come.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

IMO guys, there's nothing, anywhere, that'll prevent cold winters from happening; though they will, in the long term, almost certainly become rarer, due to AGW...?

Having said that, the notion that lowland snow will very soon become a thing of the past (especially since it was first put forward about 15yrs ago!) is patent nonsense; the warming trend is, IMO, nowhere near steep enough to entirely wipe-out the results of whatever 'caused' the winters of 1947, '63 and '79 etc., for quite a while yet.

Will Fred's Snowmageddon occur within the next three years? Honestly I do not know. But the chances do appear to be the best since at least the start of the new millennium...Only time will tell?:drinks:

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

IMO guys, there's nothing, anywhere, that'll prevent cold winters from happening; though they will, in the long term, almost certainly become rarer, due to AGW...?

Having said that, the notion that lowland snow will very soon become a thing of the past (especially since it was first put forward about 15yrs ago!) is patent nonsense; the warming trend is, IMO, nowhere near steep enough to entirely wipe-out the results of whatever 'caused' the winters of 1947, '63 and '79 etc., for quite a while yet.

Will Fred's Snowmageddon occur within the next three years? Honestly I do not know. But the chances do appear to be the best since at least the start of the new millennium...Only time will tell?

I remember through much of the 00s wondering whether we'd ever see a Winter with very cold and snowy spells again. There was also the likes of Ian Brown posting on here during that decade trying to convince us all that such Winters were a thing of the past as well. Luckily the Winters of 2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/11, 2012/13 and even 2017/18 in particular removed this doubt. 

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
10 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I remember through much of the 00s wondering whether we'd ever see a Winter with very cold and snowy spells again. There was also the likes of Ian Brown posting on here during that decade trying to convince us all that such Winters were a thing of the past as well. Luckily the Winters of 2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/11, 2012/13 and even 2017/18 in particular removed this doubt. 

We all remember the 'Chocolate Teapot.'

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