Winter 2018/19

[Roger J Smith]

The end of this month appears likely to be quite cold, so I had a look back through the daily data series (1772 to present) to find the coldest periods from 26 to 31 October (when it's going to be coldest) then what happened in the five months after that. These are the results (coldest 22 cases are shown, together with the three coldest since 1981 as coldest of those (2008) was tied 22nd -- the ranks overall include years not shown before 1981 -- the fourth coldest since 1981 was 6.42 in 2003 which was quite a gap from third relative to the longer series). After that, if a winter in the coldest ten (since 1772) did not show up in the list, I show the average temperature for 26-31 October before those very cold winters. Anything that happened before 1772 is excluded since we only have monthly averages. (note: the rank for the winter is based on DJF only and as there are 246 winters to rank (1772-73 to 2017-18), the result is presented as either part of the 122 coldest or 124 warmest (five tied for 120th warmest) (from Hadley seasonal CET rankings excluding earlier than 1772-73, a compilation of which has been saved, ask if you want to see the rankings of all 246). 

Rank _ Year __ 26-31 Oct ___ NOV_DEC_JAN_FEB_MAR __ Rank DJF (adjusted, excludes 1659-1771)

_ 01 __ 1895 ___ 2.08 _______ 7.5 _ 3.9 _ 4.8 _ 4.6 _ 6.7 ___T-88th warmest

_ 02 __ 1836 ___ 3.25 _______ 5.3 _ 4.1 _ 2.7 _ 4.7 _ 2.3 ___T-108th coldest

_ 03 __ 1896 ___ 3.30 _______ 4.3 _ 3.9 _ 1.6 _ 5.8 _ 6.5 ___T-101st coldest

_ 04 __ 1922 ___ 3.52 _______ 5.9 _ 5.8 _ 5.6 _ 5.6 _ 6.5 ___T-21st warmest

_ 05 __ 1813 ___ 3.73 _______ 4.3 _ 2.8_--2.9 _ 1.4 _ 2.9 ___ 2nd coldest

_ 06 __ 1873 ___ 3.87 _______ 6.3 _ 5.3 _ 5.5 _ 3.9 _ 6.7 ___T-59th warmest

_ 07 __ 1909 ___ 3.88 _______ 4.8 _ 3.9 _ 3.5 _ 5.1 _ 6.1 ___T-112th warmest

_ 08 __ 1926 ___ 3.93 _______ 5.9 _ 4.2 _ 4.6 _ 3.9 _ 7.3 ___T-107th warmest

_ 09 __ 1881 ___ 3.95 _______ 8.9 _ 3.9 _ 5.2 _ 6.1 _ 7.4 ___T-50th warmest

_ 10 __ 1950 ___ 4.25 _______ 5.7 _ 1.2 _ 3.9 _ 3.7 _ 4.1 ___T-55th coldest

_ 11 __ 1931 ___ 4.48 _______ 7.8 _ 5.3 _ 6.3 _ 2.9 _ 4.7 ___T-63rd warmest

_ 12 __ 1819 ___ 4.50 _______ 4.1 _ 1.4_--0.3 _ 3.2 _ 4.7 ___T-11th coldest

_ 13 __ 1785 ___ 4.57 _______ 5.6 _ 2.8 _ 2.7 _ 3.4 _ 2.1 ___58th coldest

_ 14 __ 1810 ___ 4.60 _______ 5.4 _ 3.6 _ 1.2 _ 4.6 _ 7.1 ___T-66th coldest

_ 15 __ 1955 ___ 4.80 _______ 7.0 _ 5.4 _ 3.6_--0.2 _ 6.2 ___T-55th coldest

_ 16 __ 1797 ___ 4.87 _______ 4.7 _ 4.8 _ 3.6 _ 4.0 _ 5.1 ___T-116th warmest

_ 17 __ 1917 ___ 4.92 _______ 7.8 _ 2.3 _ 3.8 _ 6.5 _ 5.7 ___T-110th warmest

_T18 __1919 ___ 4.93 _______ 3.3 _ 5.5 _ 5.2 _ 5.0 _ 7.2 ___ 26th warmest

_T18 __1939 ___ 4.93 _______ 8.7 _ 3.2_--1.4 _ 2.6 _ 6.0 ___T-13th coldest

_T18 __1948 ___ 4.93 _______ 7.3 _ 5.7 _ 5.5 _ 5.7 _ 5.1 ___T-23rd warmest

_ 21 __ 1869 ___ 4.95 _______ 5.8 _ 2.9 _ 3.3 _ 2.8 _ 4.7 ___59th coldest

_T22 __1880 ___ 5.00 _______ 5.4 _ 5.1_--1.5 _ 3.2 _ 5.3 ___T-28th coldest

_T22 __2008 ___ 5.00 _______ 7.0 _ 3.5 _ 3.0 _ 4.1 _ 7.0 ___T-89th coldest

_ 24 __ 1997 ___ 5.05 _______ 8.4 _ 5.8 _ 5.2 _ 7.3 _ 7.9 ___ 10th warmest

_ 28 __ 1992 ___ 5.35 _______ 7.4 _ 3.6 _ 5.9 _ 4.6 _ 6.7 ___T-72nd warmest

_ medians of all 25 years ^^ ___ 5.9 _ 3.9 _ 3.8 _ 4.1 _ 6.1 ___T-116th warmest

26-31 Oct before the rest of the ten coldest winters ...

_ xx __ 1962 ___ 6.50 ________ 5.5 _ 1.8_--2.1_--0.7 _ 6.0 ___ coldest

_ xx __ 1794 ___ 7.30 ________ 6.1 _ 3.7_--3.1 _ 0.8 _ 3.9 ___ 3rd coldest

_ xx __ 1878 ___10.38 ________ 3.5_--0.3_--0.7 _ 3.1 _ 4.7 ___ 4th coldest

_ xx __ 1829 ___ 6.12 ________ 4.5 _ 1.4_--0.2 _ 2.2 _ 7.7 ___ T-5th coldest

_ xx __ 1946 ___ 5.73 ________ 8.1 _ 3.1 _ 2.2_--1.9 _ 3.6 ___ T-5th coldest

_ xx __ 1783 ___ 7.00 ________ 6.2 _ 2.7_--0.6 _ 1.4 _ 2.7 ___ T-7th coldest

_ xx __ 1894 ___ 9.35 ________ 7.9 _ 5.1 _ 0.2_--1.8 _ 5.1 ___ T-7th coldest

_ xx __ 1784 ___ 6.38 ________ 5.5 _ 0.3 _ 3.4 _ 0.4 _ 1.2 ___ 9th coldest 

_ xx __ 1837 ___ 7.82 ________ 5.2 _ 5.3_--1.5 _ 0.4 _ 4.9 ___10th coldest

___________________________________________________________________________

The winters that followed colder periods 26-31 October averaged out close to normal (for the longer-term considered) but there were some quite cold winters and the general tendency before a cold winter seems to be for the period to be average to rather mild (as shown at bottom of the table). 

[Roger J Smith]

This is a condensed version of the rankings of winters in the daily data period (1772-73 to 2017-18 ranked)

 

coldest 1-T120, then warmest ranked T120 - 1 (ranks with ties listed) 246 in total

 1 -0.33 1963 ... 2 0.43 1814 ... 3 0.47 1795 ... 4 0.70 1879 ... T5 1.13 1830, 1947 ... T7 1.17 1784, 1895 ... 9 1.37 1785 ... 10 1.40 1838
 T11 1.43 1780, 1820 ... T13 1.47 1891, 1917, 1940 ... 16 1.50 1845 ... 17 1.53 1823 ... 18 1.57 1979 ... 19 1.60 1841 ... T20 1.70 1847, 1929
 22 1.93 1855  ... 23 2.00 1799 ... 24 2.07 1789 ... 25 2.10 1800 ... 26 2.20 1942 ... 27 2.23 1776 ... T28 2.27 1802, 1860, 1881
 31 2.37 1816 ... 32 2.40 1871 ... T33 2.43 1808, 1886, 2010 ... 36 2.47 1880 ... 37 2.53 1888 ... T38 2.57 1778, 1982 ... T40 2.60 1797,1941
 42 2.63 1792 ... T43 2.70 1861, 1865, 1887, 1985 ... T47 2.73 1827, 1831 ... 49 2.77 1805 ... 50 2.83 1875
 51 2.87 1777 ... T52 2.90 1774, 1893, 1986 ... T55 2.93 1803, 1951, 1956  ... 58 2.97 1786 ... 59 3.00 1870 ... T60 3.03 1936, 1991, 1996
 63 3.07 1842, 1854, 1900 ... 66 3.13 1811, 1813, 1907, 2011 .. 70 3.17 1783, 1934, 1969
 73 3.20 1818 1902 .. 75 3.27 1810 .. 76 3.30 1809, 1970 .. 78 3.33 1892, 1965, 1977
 81 3.37 1781 .. 82 3.43 1836, 1909 ..  84 3.47 1821, 1953 ... 86 3.50 1850, 1964, 1968 .. 89 3.53 1955, 1987, 2009
 92 3.57 1959 ... 3.60 1904 .. 94 3.63 1839, 1962 ..  96 3.67 1812, 1864 ... 98 3.70, 1815, 1945 ...100 3.73 1889
101 3.77 1857, 1897 ...103 3.80 1773, 1826, 1840, 1856, 1931 ... 108 3.83 1788, 1837, 2013
111 3.87 1952 ... 112 3.90 1793, 1919 ... 114 3.93 1924 ... 115 4.00 1829, 1833 ... 117 4.03 1806, 1890, 1997 .. 120 4.07 1848, 1876, 1933

120th warmest 4.10 1787, 1819, 1832, 1873, 1978 ... 116 4.13 1798, 1908, 1954, 2006 ... 112 4.17 1782, 1858, 1905, 1910
110 4.20 1918, 1958 ... 107 4.23 1801, 1927, 1984 ...104 4.27 1825, 1844, 1983 ... 102  4.30 1862, 1944 
 99 4.33 1901, 1915, 2018 ... 95 4.37 1804, 1843, 1885, 1928 
 88 4.43 1791, 1807, 1894, 1896, 1906, 1966, 1971 ...  86 4.47 1853, 2001 ... 84 4.50 1946, 1981 ... 82 4.53 1868, 2015
 78 4.60 1824, 1938, 1980, 1992 ... 76 4.63 1930, 1960 ... 74 4.67 1817, 1994 ... 72 4.70 1993, 2003 
 67 4.73 1775, 1835, 1867, 1926, 1939,  66 4.77 1794 ... 65 4.80 1852 ... 63 4.83 1883, 1932 ... 61 4.87 1922, 1973
 59 4.90 1874, 1961 ... 58 4.93 1972 ... 56 4.97 1851, 1878 ... 55 5.00 1911 
 50 5.07 1849, 1882, 1912, 1948, 2012 ... 49 5.10 1950 ... 46 5.13 1859, 1967, 2004 ... 45 5.17 1872 ... 44 5.20 1914 ... 42 5.23 1976, 2005 ... 41 5.27 1988
 40 5.30 1903 ... 38 5.33 1866, 1913 ... 34 5.37 1898, 1937, 2002, 2017 ... 32 5.40 1974, 2000
 30 5.43 1921, 1999 ... 29  5.47 1884 ... 28 5.50 1957 ... 27 5.53 1916 ... 26 5.57 1920 ... 23 5.63 1779, 1949, 2008 ... 21 5.67 1790, 1923
 19 5.73 1828, 1863  ... 16 5.77 1846, 1899, 1925 ... 15 5.80 1822 ... 12 5.90 1877 1943. 1995 ... 11 6.07 2014 
 10 6.10 1998 ... 9 6.13 1935 .. 8 6.20 1796 .. 7 6.23 1990 .. 6 6.43 1975 .. 5 6.43 2007 .. 4 6.50 1989 ... 3 6.53 1834 ... 2 6.67 2016 ... 1 6.77 1869 

[summer blizzard]

Just playing around with data for the Jan-March period and while Jan and March look good, there is a relatively strong signal popping out for a west based NAO in Feb. 

Could be a case of freezer to frying pan like Feb 09 or Feb 12. 

[the snow searcher]

17 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Not sure if these help 

2008 -  

2012 -  

latest sst chart  does look like the current sst's are a lot cooler to the north/ north west of the uk than they were in 2012, although there was some cool water in 08, current chart looks warmer to the east/se of the uk

Very very interesting charts, whats most worrying is the lack of sea ice build up in the Siberian alaskan sea shores, therefore influencing much higher than usual ssts in this area. Surely will have later effects on lack of cold continental blasts from Siberia. However North Atlantic sea ice development is very similar across all 3 charts.

[feb1991blizzard]

5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Just playing around with data for the Jan-March period and while Jan and March look good, there is a relatively strong signal popping out for a west based NAO in Feb. 

Could be a case of freezer to frying pan like Feb 09 or Feb 12. 

Yes, despite all the teleconnections , expert views and models pointing to early cold being our best chance, January on my analogues keeps coming out as an absolute snorter of a Greeny block.

[summer blizzard]

25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, despite all the teleconnections , expert views and models pointing to early cold being our best chance, January on my analogues keeps coming out as an absolute snorter of a Greeny block.

Still undecided on the PDO but if you go for solar, weak Nino, standardised Qbo of +1 for Q1 months and just go with Q3 PDO analogues then the strongest matches are 2003, 2005, 2009 and 2010.

2002 and 2004 are good enso-pdo matches, 2009 is a good solar-pdo match, 2008 is a good solar-qbo match.

Very strong signal for Jan cold, Feb and March less so due to high pressure closer to the UK but Feb 05 and 09 both had easterlies.

March 03 and 05 also hit 20C.

[Summer Sun]

6 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Just playing around with data for the Jan-March period and while Jan and March look good, there is a relatively strong signal popping out for a west based NAO in Feb. 

Could be a case of freezer to frying pan like Feb 09 or Feb 12. 

Feb 2012 was certainly a month of two halfs the opening 12 days or so was quite cold with -15.6c on the 11th in Holbeach fast forward to the 23rd and we got a high of 18.7c in Coleshill

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, despite all the teleconnections , expert views and models pointing to early cold being our best chance, January on my analogues keeps coming out as an absolute snorter of a Greeny block.

My LRF points at Jan having a period of deepest cold

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

My LRF points at Jan having a period of deepest cold

 

BFTP

Cant remember - is yours available to read on here yet?

[Walsall Wood Snow]

If you swap the digits of 18 you get 81, so maybe we'll get a December like that one. Also if you swap the digits of 19 you get 91, so maybe we'll also get a February like that one . I jest of course, but you never know .

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Cant remember - is yours available to read on here yet?

Yo! A link to his LRF right here (page 3 of this thread): 

 

[northwestsnow]

I see meteo france are going for a cold winter for the UK with euro troughing a plenty!!

 

[masheeuk]

THank you for submitting that video. If that comes off it will be brilliant.

[acrossthechannel]

To summarize Frédérick Decker goes for a less cold November than anticipated. December is forecast to be cold and snowy in the UK, January very cold and dry in the UK  and very snowy in France with the cold even reaching Spain. In February the cold should relax somewhat.

[Bobafet]

Change the settings and you can get subtitles in English.

 

particularly like this part.

 

[Seasonality]

2 hours ago, acrossthechannel said:

To summarize Frédérick Decker goes for a less cold November than anticipated. December is forecast to be cold and snowy in the UK, January very cold and dry in the UK  and very snowy in France with the cold even reaching Spain. In February the cold should relax somewhat.

What is Fred's background? Has he got a good history with LRFs? Genuinely curious as I know nothing about him.

[Yarmy]

16 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

What is Fred's background? Has he got a good history with LRFs? Genuinely curious as I know nothing about him.

His background is a map of Europe. Badum tish.

Seriously though, there's more here:

https://www.lameteo.org/index.php/previsions-meteo/tendances-saisonnieres

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

3 hours ago, acrossthechannel said:

To summarize Frédérick Decker goes for a less cold November than anticipated. December is forecast to be cold and snowy in the UK, January very cold and dry in the UK  and very snowy in France with the cold even reaching Spain. In February the cold should relax somewhat.

I imagine 'cold and dry' as far as January goes, wouldn't necessarily mean snowless though. After all December 2010 was classed as a dry month. As for February, there are already quite a few individuals who are anticipating a front loaded Winter, but I imagine February or any final month in seasonal forecasts are always going to be the hardest month to make a prediction for, being the furthest away from the present. Nice forecast nonetheless. I won't be getting too excited yet though, being as there's still a while to go until December even and as always we'll have a better idea in a months time.

[Met4Cast]

For what it's worth, here are my thoughts on November.

Unsettled start seems all but likely now with low pressure largely dominating producing some wet and windy spells of weather just about everywhere though I don't expect temperatures to recover much, generally average/a little below.

Later in the month could prove interesting, some signals pointing towards pressure building towards the North and East of the UK so could see the first "real" widespread snowfall risk of the season. A lot of this depends upon the continued Strat/Trop decoupling but also the possibility of weakened zonal winds/slight displacement as per latest GFS builds. 

Should this pattern form, it could put us on course for a SSW late Nov/Early Dec, though a huge amount of doubt surrounding this of course. December depends upon the above occurring, could be quite a cold month.

[summer blizzard]

Another bout of weakened trades in the central/eastern Pacific during the first third of November potentially. This may encourage mid to high latitude ridging down the line.

[Allseasons-Si]

Snow on Christmas day anyone?

 

[Seasonality]

14 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Snow on Christmas day anyone?

Nice chart from Mr Ventrice, but surely a bit chocolate teapot at this range?

[Matthew.]

Several things stand out from previous February CET analysis here

1. A cold or average November most likely 

2. A cold or average December looks likely

3. A average or cold Jan is more likely

4. A mild February looks likely 

Front loaded Winter?

Edited October 26, 2018 by Matthew.

[Don]

On 25/10/2018 at 19:51, Allseasons-si said:

Snow on Christmas day anyone?

 

Nope.  No snow shown south of the M4 corridor!

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Nope.  No snow shown south of the M4 corridor!

No!!!,not the dreaded M4 debate again,don't say anything about it in the MAD thread's lol

Edited October 26, 2018 by Allseasons-si