Winter 2018/19

[Yarmy]

17 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

The accuweather winter forecast is hardly inspiring! 

Very much a +NAO forecast

Cold shots for Russia. Brave call there.

[Frost HoIIow]

15 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Cold shots for Russia. Brave call there.

Aye and it might be Baltic in the Baltics, who would have thunk it? 

[Roger J Smith]

9 hours ago, JeffC said:

Nice reasoning... Is the big gap at the end indicative of a potential white out?! 

No, it's indicative of some copy that I typed and then removed, but all the space apparently remained as a ghost, must be a seasonal thing.

[Seasonality]

2 hours ago, coldie said:

There were two beasts, a big snow event in December and frequent north westerlies which brought snow showers throughout December and January 

Very true. But didn't change it being an overall average winter for the UK temperature wise. 

[coldie]

14 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Very true. But didn't change it being an overall average winter for the UK temperature wise. 

Yeah I guess it just seemed colder than average due to the fact that we saw more snow than the previous 4 winters combined!

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Very true. But didn't change it being an overall average winter for the UK temperature wise. 

Aye...Compared to the winters of the 1960s and '80s, the last one was a damp squib.

[coldie]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye...Compared to the winters of the 1960s and '80s, the last one was a damp squib.

It wasn't in my neck of the woods ed  I wasn't around in the 60s or 80s so I can't really compare but my mother said that the snow we had in March was the most she'd seen since 1978-79, we had over 10 foot drifts in places. Just a shame it didn't last long though.

[Froze were the Days]

3 hours ago, coldie said:

There were two beasts, a big snow event in December and frequent north westerlies which brought snow showers throughout December and January 

Well without going into last winter too much rather than this one December was a 'mixed' month and indeed there were some snowy snaps though not really noteworthy and fleeting, last January though was a big no no, the further south you lived the worse it was (nearly 2c above normal here in the south east) which surprised me the MetO anomaly chart for the winter was near normal in these parts but maybe that's the difference between the 1961-90 and 1981-2010 stats!

By the way I should think 1981-82 you would have seen more snow as well...I remember the Queen being stuck on a train in east Wales in December 81' in drifts.

Edited October 18, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[coldie]

24 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well without going into last winter too much rather than this one December was a 'mixed' month and indeed there were some snowy snaps though not really noteworthy and fleeting, last January though was a big no no, the further south you lived the worse it was (nearly 2c above normal here in the south east) which surprised me the MetO anomaly chart for the winter was near normal in these parts but maybe that's the difference between the 1961-90 and 1981-2010 stats!

Yeah that's true, me living at an altitude of 200 meters certainly helped last winter mind even though I live in south Wales. Anyway moving on let's hope this winter turns out to be a classic, things are looking very promising so far!                                                                                                              I wasn't around in 81-82 but I've heard stories from family members that that winter was was really severe around these parts, not sure if it was snowier than 78-79 though.

Edited October 18, 2018 by coldie

[Weather-history]

24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye...Compared to the winters of the 1960s and '80s, the last one was a damp squib.

Was it? It was colder than 4 winters for both the 1960s and 1980s for the CET.

 

[Aleman]

It depends where you live. December was slightly coolish in the North. January was coolish in the North and warmish in the South, February was cool everywhere. So DJF was pretty average down South and a bit cool up North. No big deal. The reason people remember it as a cold winter is that winter weather started with a cold November and March was frigid. Most - if not all - of us had a 5 month winter! We edged to cooI DJF here so we had more winter events and then we had some either side on top. I lost count of settled snowfalls at a dozen occurrences (albeit mostly just dustings) after only one in each of the two previous winters - which I photographed to show Mrs A each time because they melted in a few hours! No need for photos last year! That's all before pretty much changing straight to a quite hot summer. (Again, not quite so hot up North as in the South. Leeming in central Yorkshire never beat 28.5C (see link) and only a half dozen nights too hot to sleep.)  Recent seasons remind me of late 70s weather of cold winters and hot summers but I think neither end has quite got there yet. Slightly cooler UK seas are perhaps giving drier air so marginally cooler overall but greater swings? Could this continue for a year or two?  I won't complain if we have a proper winter of 5 to 10 foot snowdrifts that completely buried cars, closed roads on hills for days, and cancelled numerous buses; and then a summer to match 1976 where days frequently beat 30C and it was hard work collecting hay bales and we hid under trees to get out of the sun. It would remind me of my childhood. It feels like it's coming but perhaps I'm being overcome with nostalgia.

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03257&ano=2018&mes=8&day=15&hora=17&min=0&ndays=150

Edited October 18, 2018 by Aleman

[Methuselah]

41 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Was it? It was colder than 4 winters for both the 1960s and 1980s for the CET.

Then it was warmer than six?

[Froze were the Days]

Cold November 2017?...yet again if going by the 'mild' 1981-2010 series it was near normal, if you run the 1961-90 series (which so many of us have been accustomed to) then it was fractionally on the mild side.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Was it? It was colder than 4 winters for both the 1960s and 1980s for the CET.

 

I bet it wasn't as good as the 80's ones for snow though - baring 89.

[Nights King]

3 hours ago, coldie said:

Yeah I guess it just seemed colder than average due to the fact that we saw more snow than the previous 4 winters combined!

Are people confusing spring for winter though? March was cold and snowy but winter only saw a couple of marginal events for the hills down south? 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I bet it wasn't as good as the 80's ones for snow though - baring 89.

Taking December alone though (CET 4.8c) , it was actually colder than all but 2 80s December's, barring obviously 1981 (0.3c) as well as 1982 (4.4c). The next coldest Dec in the 80s was actually 1989 believe it or not at 4.9c. 

In terms of Dec snow though at least for here in the Midlands, I imagine it might have been snowier than all of them barring 1981 of course. Though I couldn't state this as fact having not been born until the mid 80s and remembering little to nothing from back then. I believe Dec 1985 would have got quite cold at the end though after been quite mild before hand after a very cold Nov but I don't know if it was particularly snowy then or not?

[coldie]

2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Are people confusing spring for winter though? March was cold and snowy but winter only saw a couple of marginal events for the hills down south? 

The 11th December snow event there was around 20+ cm here and a few of the north westerlys we had gave a good covering, can't remember exactly how many times though. Also the 2 beasts from the east happened before the 21st of march so antronomically speaking winter was pretty decent in terms of snowfall  

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Taking December alone though (CET 4.8c) , it was actually colder than all but 2 80s December's, barring obviously 1981 (0.3c) as well as 1982 (4.4c). The next coldest Dec in the 80s was actually 1989 believe it or not at 4.9c. 

In terms of Dec snow though at least for here in the Midlands, I imagine it might have been snowier than all of them barring 1981 of course. Though I couldn't state this as fact having not been born until the mid 80s and remembering little to nothing from back then. I believe Dec 1985 would have got quite cold at the end though after been quite mild before hand after a very cold Nov but I don't know if it was particularly snowy then or not?

Just December alone - perhaps but I lived in Birmigham (admittedly high ground in SW) but there's no way last year would have out done the Jan's and Feb's of the 80s.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Just December alone - perhaps but I lived in Birmigham (admittedly high ground in SW) but there's no way last year would have out done the Jan's and Feb's of the 80s.

I don't doubt that for a moment. Indeed January's and February's in the early and mid 80s would have been far greater than most since. I was just using that month alone to try and add a little bit of balanced perspective to the idea of last Winter not been very snowy in any of the main Winter quarter of DJF compared to back then and just pointing out that with the exception of possibly only Dec 1981 it would have been better here for snow than the other December's of that decade. Though admittedly we were pretty lucky in this region really compared to elsewhere that month and though there have been better December's for snow in other years there's no doubt round here Dec 2017 would have been the best Dec round here for snow since Dec 2010. Not that there's been any competition in any other year since mind.

[Weather-history]

5 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Taking December alone though (CET 4.8c) , it was actually colder than all but 2 80s December's, barring obviously 1981 (0.3c) as well as 1982 (4.4c). The next coldest Dec in the 80s was actually 1989 believe it or not at 4.9c. 

In terms of Dec snow though at least for here in the Midlands, I imagine it might have been snowier than all of them barring 1981 of course. Though I couldn't state this as fact having not been born until the mid 80s and remembering little to nothing from back then. I believe Dec 1985 would have got quite cold at the end though after been quite mild before hand after a very cold Nov but I don't know if it was particularly snowy then or not?

Interestingly, February 2018 was colder than all but 3 Februarys of the 1980s for the CET.

December 1985 was snowless until post Christmas. It was exceptionally mild overall until Christmas. I think over 50% of the total snowfalls that fell during the December of the 1980s fell in that December of 1981. 

 

Edited October 19, 2018 by Weather-history

[Roger J Smith]

That heavy snowfall took place 28 Feb into 1 or 2 March so the general public likely viewed it as winter's last gasp in general, I think it's mostly weather forum types who associate seasons with three calendar months as we tend to do, most of the public are more attuned to the older concept of the astronomical seasons and note the passing of the two solstices and equinoxes, so for them (and perhaps some of us) the seasons really run from those dates. I think if we took the average (11th or thereabouts of March, June, September, and December) as the boundaries, it would more exactly align with the seasons as they actually happen. But then again, just because there are four seasons does not mean they have to be one quarter of a year long, I know for a fact that winter in many parts of eastern Canada is about mid November to early April, spring is over by end of May, summer lasts to mid-September and autumn is then mid-September to mid November. 

 

[Matty88]

On 17/10/2018 at 22:38, Daniel Smith said:

The accuweather winter forecast is hardly inspiring! 

Very much a +NAO forecast

Interesting, as I've found accuweather's previous long range forecasts comparatively accurate in recent years (on the whole) - they were fairly close with summer 2018 too. I can see where they are coming from with this with the warming of the Pacific forecast etc, but for me and following the long term trends, heights and sea temps over the North Atlantic I would not at all be surprised if they are a bit out with this one. Famous last words of course - but there is no sign of these 'frequent wind storms' at present, on current runs anyway. 

We are seeing already that HP is really beasting up over europe/north atlantic with some record heights, sending warm air far further north into the arctic, reminiscent of the 'beast from the east' days.

So for me, something tells me this winter isn't going to be our normal run of the mill westerlies - due to our friendly HP throwing curve balls in the jet streams way. But things can and do change... and I'm sure the jet stream will fire up with time. Its definitely an interesting one to watch!!! 

 

Never the less I'm going to enjoy the forthcoming cold, crisp days very much and Scotland could well be in for their first snowfalls too!

[Froze were the Days]

Here are some of Accuweather's recent winter forecasts...make of them what you will.

 

[Met4Cast]

1 hour ago, Matty88 said:

Interesting, as I've found accuweather's previous long range forecasts comparatively accurate in recent years (on the whole) - they were fairly close with summer 2018 too. I can see where they are coming from with this with the warming of the Pacific forecast etc, but for me and following the long term trends, heights and sea temps over the North Atlantic I would not at all be surprised if they are a bit out with this one. Famous last words of course - but there is no sign of these 'frequent wind storms' at present, on current runs anyway. 

We are seeing already that HP is really beasting up over europe/north atlantic with some record heights, sending warm air far further north into the arctic, reminiscent of the 'beast from the east' days.

So for me, something tells me this winter isn't going to be our normal run of the mill westerlies - due to our friendly HP throwing curve balls in the jet streams way. But things can and do change... and I'm sure the jet stream will fire up with time. Its definitely an interesting one to watch!!! 

 

Never the less I'm going to enjoy the forthcoming cold, crisp days very much and Scotland could well be in for their first snowfalls too!

The Met Office contingency forecasts are leaning towards milder & wetter too, I suspect down to GLOSEA5 going quite bullishly for a +NAO type pattern in the latest runs. 

On the face of it, I think a colder winter is more likely given the background signals but equally, I think we’re likely to see quite a strong jetstream this year with high pressure over the Eastern US, lets hope the low solar activity etc allows for a more Southerly tracking jet. A winter of battleground scenarios anyone? 

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, Matty88 said:

Interesting, as I've found accuweather's previous long range forecasts comparatively accurate in recent years (on the whole) - they were fairly close with summer 2018 too. I

Actually I find the opposite!

None of the recent winter ones have been good.