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Posted (edited)

Hi Folks Lets Start This Roller Coaster Ride For Winter 2018 2019. Take A Look At Gavs Weather Vids For Some Of The Excelent Winter 18-19 Updates His been doing From September. Here's To A Snowy winter18-19 To All. https://www.gavsweathervids.com/ 

Edited by reef
Re-opened and topic title changed
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Just a tad too early. We've barely got ourselves into Autumn mode. 

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Posted (edited)

Now back open.

Enjoy :)

Edited by reef
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So many variables to take into account at the best of times but with a impending Grand Solar Minimum and a AMO due to switch to its overall negative phase things look like they could get interesting, or not. 😁

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Winter 2018-19:

IMO, despite any claims to the contrary, no-one has a clue; if they did, LRFs would be accurate, on a year-to-year basis, and forecasters would be billionaires!🤔

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OK, some thoughts on the coming winter.  It's fascinating.  Low solar activity.  Transition to +QBO.  Totally new stuff in the polar region associated with low sea ice.   Atlantic SSTs:

Let's start with the Atlantic SSTs.  The latest Met Office contingency planners forecast cited the current SSTs as indicative of a +NAO winter.  Here the SST at 20/9:

image.thumb.jpg.1a8d55874566c248067461ea55d70334.jpg

And today:

image.thumb.jpg.f62ec1c3537c80b0ec2eb5648d6d8f7d.jpg

Homogenising a bit.  This is what I will be looking for here, not that we will get a SST profile in the Atlantic that promotes a cold winter, rather that it will evolve into a profile that just takes a back seat and lets other influences provide the drivers. 

It's the warmer seas south and colder north that I hope we're beginning to see the back of here, removing things that could fire up the jet at us. If it all mixes out by December, then what?

As I understand it, the +QBO will as it gathers strength increase the likelihood of  the polar vortex to intensify and reduce the likelihood of a SSW as we go through the season, so the window of opportunity for cold weather may be early to mid season, Dec to mid Jan.  

Judah Cohen's blog explains the other things to look out for away from the UK:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

I think, particularly for us in the south, we also need to consider the cooling of the continent, if the best shots at cold are indeed likely to come earlier in the season.

Happy snow hunting, 2018/19!

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winter started here first week in September..was looking for the Spring 2019 thread..but hey ho

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2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Winter 2018-19:

IMO, despite any claims to the contrary, no-one has a clue; if they did, LRFs would be accurate, on a year-to-year basis, and forecasters would be billionaires!🤔

For my locations its pretty simple..it will be sub zero for much of the time..it will snow on and off for the next 6 months and it wont get light until after 9am..come back in May and see if i was right?

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The NAO forecast in May was supportive of a positive regime. I have a feeling a mild one is on the way overall but pressure patterns are always up in the air for now. Snow events can turn up at times even in generally mild winters. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Winter 2018-19:

IMO, despite any claims to the contrary, no-one has a clue; if they did, LRFs would be accurate, on a year-to-year basis, and forecasters would be billionaires!🤔

Couldn't agree more. The slightest thing that wasn't foreseen when making LRF can crop up and has a domino effect to what happens after. For example a couple of years ago, A storm with exceptionally mild air pushed deep up in to Arctic circle. It changed the entire pattern thereafter . A week before it, no one knew it would happen. 

Edited by StormyWeather28

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15 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

The NAO forecast in May was supportive of a positive regime. I have a feeling a mild one is on the way overall but pressure patterns are always up in the air for now. Snow events can turn up at times even in generally mild winters. 

The NAO imdex is correct 2/3 times so here’s hoping  this is the other one. 😁

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3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Winter 2018-19:

IMO, despite any claims to the contrary, no-one has a clue; if they did, LRFs would be accurate, on a year-to-year basis, and forecasters would be billionaires!🤔

Amazing that you completely ridicule predictions at a 3 month lead time and criticise people who have no uncertainty principle as charlatans, yet you are so sure of these boiling hot winters 100 years away, 'Double standards' Ed as usual.

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JAMSTEC going for cold in western Europe (at the moment)...their forecast for last winter wasn't bad.

 

temp2.glob.DJF2019.1sep2018.gif

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2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

JAMSTEC going for cold in western Europe (at the moment)...their forecast for last winter wasn't bad.

 

temp2.glob.DJF2019.1sep2018.gif

Apparently they usually have a cold bias for us at this point, but im not sure tho

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10 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

JAMSTEC going for cold in western Europe (at the moment)...their forecast for last winter wasn't bad.

 

temp2.glob.DJF2019.1sep2018.gif

A similar story last year with the September update when they went for a cold winter

temp2_glob.DJF2018.1sep2017.thumb.gif.08b147c094b98a76d8c16036f8f35b0e.gif

The final update before winter started

temp2_glob.DJF2018.1nov2017.thumb.gif.778ec6c0c531ad6c72ddfeae0f6096c9.gif

 

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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10 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Amazing that you completely ridicule predictions at a 3 month lead time and criticise people who have no uncertainty principle as charlatans, yet you are so sure of these boiling hot winters 100 years away, 'Double standards' Ed as usual.

Again you confuse weather with climate, feb. And as for the Uncertainty Principle - I'm not sure what you're confusing that with.:help:

'Boiling hot winters'? Eh? Ah? What? Why? When? Who?👽

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14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A similar story last year with the September update when they went for a cold winter

temp2_glob.DJF2018.1sep2017.thumb.gif.08b147c094b98a76d8c16036f8f35b0e.gif

The final update before winter started

temp2_glob.DJF2018.1nov2017.thumb.gif.778ec6c0c531ad6c72ddfeae0f6096c9.gif

 

 

You are indeed correct and JAMSTEC does have a cold bias at this time of year, having said that all long range models have inbuilt biases be it warm or cold so none of them are worth the bandwidth really. Just for fun is fine though 😁

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From an analog point of view - Winter of 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 are quite close to current conditions and forecasts. 

It won't take too long for you to realise they delivered quite different things 😄

 

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43 minutes ago, jvenge said:

From an analog point of view - Winter of 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 are quite close to current conditions and forecasts. 

It won't take too long for you to realise they delivered quite different things 😄

 

jvenge, I would take winter 2002/03 ahead of 2009/10 if I was in central Europe, that was the last winter classified as below average, >-1 against 1901-2000!  since that winter none has achieved a below average threshold, so waiting continues.

zima_24.png

Edited by jules216

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44 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Sorry mate but that's complete nonsense. I can tell you that people can and do make a lot of money from LRFs!

Anyway, I'm giving a presentation tomorrow on a winter forecast so here goes. Front-ended cold winter with a largely blocked pattern through December and January, mild more likely going into Feb. Negative QBO is transitioning into a positive one through winter which isn't good for cold, but we are now at the very bottom of the solar cycle which plays very much into our favour for a colder winter. ECMWF seasonal* supports this, but then again the UKMO and CFS do not...

*EC seasonal has consistently had a very easterly themed December!

Aye Nick, you're right enough...as far as science-based forecasting goes. I wasn't aiming my 'fedupness' against them anyway -my bad for being so unclear.

It's more the plethora of what I call 'Bill Foggets', who fill the media with their half-baked annual forecasts for Snowmageddon. I'm also aware that the current state of the solar cycle is very favourable for cold, possibly snowy weather, so the chances are that those who make wild predictions, on a yearly basis, might actually get it right this time...

That though, IMO, would have far more to do with coincidence than with genius?

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BBQ summer oops that went pear shaped that was 2007.

Anyway today is similar to this time last year,got our indian summer again.

As for winter lets get autumn sorted out first a snowier November this year,havn`t seen one of those in a long while mid month.

 

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5 hours ago, Nick L said:

Sorry mate but that's complete nonsense. I can tell you that people can and do make a lot of money from LRFs!

Anyway, I'm giving a presentation tomorrow on a winter forecast so here goes. Front-ended cold winter with a largely blocked pattern through December and January, mild more likely going into Feb. Negative QBO is transitioning into a positive one through winter which isn't good for cold, but we are now at the very bottom of the solar cycle which plays very much into our favour for a colder winter. ECMWF seasonal* supports this, but then again the UKMO and CFS do not...

*EC seasonal has consistently had a very easterly themed December!

Is that the latest EC Seasonal, Nick? It's embargoed until the 13th of each month on Copernicus for the plebs.

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1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

Is that the latest EC Seasonal, Nick? It's embargoed until the 13th of each month on Copernicus for the plebs.

Yep, the October issue. Incidentally, from tonight we've got access to the hourly EC data, as well as the brand new 06z and 18z runs, just in time for the fun season!

To sum up the latest EC seasonal, blocked and easterly December, anticyclonic Jan and then transitioning to a +ve NAO in Feb.

Edited by Nick L
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