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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Increasing confidence that it w ill track back across the Atlantic. A long lasting fish spinner this one.

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    Shame I wanted her to do a few more circles of the Atlantic to claim the record of longest lasting storm. Mostly totally under the radar during her life finally deciding to get some media attention. O

    Ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha! Ha Ha Ha! *chuckle*    

    109mph gust at Figueira da Foz 4m asl

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Well tongight GFS ecm all bend it back west and quickly kill it. However at T72 we do have two Ex Hurricanes on the charts. How often does that happen?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

    Bit of a ragged eye but there is still ongoing convection development around the eye. It appears to have pulled down some drier air so it might be a bit of a hybrid at the moment.

    Those people in Madeira or the Canary Islands or those traveling to those destinations should keep an eye on the forecasts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Leslie continues to puzzle with her track. The 0z ECM and Aprege take her towards Portugal while the gfs continues to show impacts for the Canaries and then move her westwards again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    The 6z ICON also joins the ECM with a track through southern Portugal and into Spain. The 0z had a path similar to the UKMO

    Edited by karyo
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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Still quite a spread in GEFS for Hurricane Leslie track, some loop round and back west to brush Canaries as per NHC official track, while some, like 00z GFS operational track across Portugal and Spain

    13L_gefs_latest.thumb.png.95d47389a43c60b2d0d9ad3d7b3def16.pngleslie.thumb.png.994c6275781a376b3b7a172ab5959feb.png

     

    00z GFS operational

    gfsgif.thumb.gif.944ffce750cf050c7dbd3c093112928d.gif

    Interestingly remnant low of ex-Michael approaches Iberia early next week

    14L_gefs_latest.thumb.png.701983bbaf6107631b4cf055ad847ed6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Manchester 35m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: South Manchester 35m asl

    If leslie does dive south then what is being shown of Michaels track on the models, I expect it may be quite different

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

    Now on day 19 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    I thought she needed a few more days yet to get the record. Yup Leslie is well short at the moment on this record.

    If it remains on track and the track has varied a lot it will be a wet day in Spain and Portugal.

    Edited by The PIT
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    After Leslie it looks like they will get the remains of Micheal soon after as well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    55 minutes ago, The PIT said:

    I thought she needed a few more days yet to get the record. Yup Leslie is well short at the moment on this record.

    If it remains on track and the track has varied a lot it will be a wet day in Spain and Portugal.

    The risk of flash floods must be very high for those areas that are not used to seeing much rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    4 hours ago, StormyWeather28 said:

    024015_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    Madness! That's Lisbon in the firing line according to my dodgy eyes anyway. 

    The NHC has shifted the path a bit further north than yesterday. Still quite a bit of disagreement in the models.. The UKMO takes her to northwest Iberia while the GFS is the most southerly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chorlton, 29m asl.
  • Location: Chorlton, 29m asl.

    Estofex have issued a level 3 for Portugal for Leslie.

    http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2018101406_201810122345_3_stormforecast.xml

    A level 3 was issued for parts of Portugal surrounded by a level 2 covering also parts of Spain mainly for severe to damaging wind gusts and to a lesser extent for (strong) tornados and excessive precipitation.
     

    2018101406_201810122345_3_stormforecast.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Well after being mostly a fish spinner looks like shes going out with a bang. Hold onto your hats folks down there

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    In Fuerteventura at the mo. Been Sunny and very warm. Wind picked up this afternoon (nothing unusual for here). Forecast of showers tomorrow so guess we'll be getting tailend of Leslie.

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    Goodbye Leslie, we will miss you !
    
    If she hadn't gone Extratropical on September 25th for a couple of days this would be discussion number 78
    
    
    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 132036
    TCDAT3
    
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number  70
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
    500 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018
    
    After a total of 70 advisories, long-lived Leslie has become
    post-tropical just west of the coast of Portugal, finally succumbing
    to the combination of cool waters, strong vertical wind shear, and
    interaction with an approaching cold front. The air mass ahead of
    the cyclone has moistened up in the low levels with Faro, Portugal,
    reporting a dewpoint of 70F/21C, but the dewpoints across central
    and northern Portugal ahead of Leslie are only in the low-60F range,
    which is not indicative of a tropical air mass. Thus, the cyclone is
    now a powerful post-tropical low pressure system that even has a
    partial eye noted in the most recent 2000Z Portuguese composite
    radar imagery. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, and
    Leslie is forecast to degenerate into a broad low pressure area over
    or just north of Spain by late Sunday.
    
    Leslie is moving quickly toward the northeast or 050/30 kt.
    Post-tropical Cyclone Leslie should continue in a fast northeastward
    direction for the next 12-18 hours, making landfall near or just
    south of Porto, Portugal by 14/0000Z. This forecast motion is
    consistent with the previous advisory and the latest track model
    guidance.
    
    The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling
    hazards information for their respective countries via local weather
    products. This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory
    on this system.
    
    
    Key Messages:
    
    1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
    portions of Portugal later tonight as a powerful post-tropical
    cyclone.  Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
    northwestern and northern Spain tonight and Sunday.
    
    2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
    to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)
    across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
    flooding.
    
    3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
    refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
    Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt.  Interests in Spain should refer to
    products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  13/2100Z 40.5N   9.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
     12H  14/0600Z 43.0N   4.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL INLAND
     24H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    After weeks on end of drifting around the Atlantic tropics, the resilient ex hurricane/ tropical cyclone finally made landfall in Portugal yesterday evening. Amazing to watch Leslie over the past few weeks and ending its life in a very rare synoptic circumstances.  Some wind gusts of 100km were reported for a time on exposed coastlines. Just another eventful 2018 weather story so far!

    C

    44055694_2361319120757842_2378920353041743872_n.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Shame I wanted her to do a few more circles of the Atlantic to claim the record of longest lasting storm. Mostly totally under the radar during her life finally deciding to get some media attention. One of the more interesting hurricanes of the year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

    Fascinating storm: been following it for a couple of weeks and thought it was going to loop-da-loop again but this time it was not to be. Hints of Vince from 2005 too at the end...

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