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The PIT

Hurricane Leslie

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This is a wired system seemingly going round in circles and several stages of development. How long is been around is also impressive.

Edited by Jo Farrow
up to hurricane

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I have also been monitoring this unusual system.

On Tuesday it transitioned from Subtropical to Extratropical and was no longer covered by the National Hurricane Center.

Then on Friday after it drifted south it transitioned back to Subtropical and was again covered by the national hurricane centre with the same name.

Now it is Tropical and likely to become a hurricane for a while.

Has anybody seen this happen before ?

 

 

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Could be one of the longer lasting systems this one.

I think also started life as a standard low with frontal systems and then detached itself. 

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Under the radar and not yet a hurricane but trying hard.

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Now a hurricane at long last.

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No longer a hurricane and has slipped under the radar here. Very surprised the media picked it up and with the path changing day to day run to run who knows where it is eventually going to go. Even if it did head this way it would be weaker than Helena and that was a none event for many here.

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LOL GFS still has Leslie circling around at T384.

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Posted (edited)

A growing theme seems to be the storm passing by to the west of the UK, it'll have weakened substantially by then... however I can't help but think of some similarities with the path its taking to Ophelia this time last year.

Anyway its remarkable how long Leslie has been hanging around for, lets not forget this formed when the remains of Florence broke up. Therefore you could say this storm has been hanging around since mid August!

Still some way from being the longest living storm, I think Nadine from 2012 is up near the top of that list, another system that meandered aimlessly in the Atlantic basin for weeks.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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I just hope it's not an Oct 87 storm as we all know what happened then,the latest 18z gfs takes her up the western side of the BI just like the ecm and gem,infact it looks more like the 12z gem

there is still a lot to be resolved yet!

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Latest runs have it disappearing into Africa and dissipating. I wonder what is the record for the longest lasting cyclone in all it's various forms?

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Have a feeling that was Nadine in 2016, hung around for like three weeks. 

But yeah, the GFS runs are amazing with a hit in the Canaries and then Morroco. 

 

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3 hours ago, The PIT said:

Latest runs have it disappearing into Africa and dissipating. I wonder what is the record for the longest lasting cyclone in all it's various forms?

I believe this beast takes the award for the longest lived in the Atlantic

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_San_Ciriaco_hurricane

And for the Pacific basin its Hurricane John in 1994

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_John_(1994)

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40 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Have a feeling that was Nadine in 2016, hung around for like three weeks. 

But yeah, the GFS runs are amazing with a hit in the Canaries and then Morroco. 

 

Previous runs had it lasting even longer with another circuit round the subtropical high, but while the winds will have greatly subsided the track over the Canaries would give a flash flooding risk especially over the mountainous terrain.

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Well it's got a chance of getting close to the record. Probably needs a few more loops though. Well yet another different path and the remnants are of the south west of Ireland on the 15th October. Whether it's been obsorbed with anything I may have missed though.

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GFS kills it off this time while ECM sends it back north westward.

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Yup looks like it will become a hurricane again.

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I wish she would turn south and then west again to extend her life.

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Projected path seems to have “flattened” slightly with less curve to the north towards the end of the projected timeline, so aiming more for Southern Europe.

5EF57326-D463-4896-A193-1E397363EEA6.png

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Forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and much uncertainty on hpw things will pan out later. ECM has Leslie being absorbed while the GFS sends it back to wander over the Atlantic.

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Well GFS does make it do a reloop. ECM, GEM kill it UKMO looks like it doing the GFS and looping it back into the Atlantic.

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NHC discussion number 53 final sentence

I can't rule out that
Leslie could remain a tropical cyclone almost indefinitely if it
continues meandering over the northern Atlantic.

Forecaster Zelenski is going to need a holiday by the time Leslie is done !

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Latest has Leslie arriving in the Canaries on Saturday. Bit of a change for them as they’ve been having some very warm Autumn weather recently (in-laws just back from holiday in Tenerife) with temperature high 20’s or low 30’s most days.

8F5E3616-2EBD-44F2-B33D-9EF3E54BC38B.thumb.png.73b06b365e606149eb86b93ec6819715.pngDB4A65DD-88DD-4934-B3CC-6CD702C28A1B.thumb.png.6649736ac4c3c0db241660e0dbd913c2.png/

Edited by lottiekent

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