How will Solar Minimum affect weather and climate Take 2?

[Methuselah]

24 minutes ago, frederiksen90 said:

Studies show that low geomagnetic activity coincides with negative NAO and a warmer arctic via increasing blockage and interconnection between the troposphere and the stratosphere. It is striking that after the solar wind has been unusually weak in 2019, the blocking frequency on the Atlantic side of Greenland increased, leading to the reverse ocean circulation of recent years, while tropospheric blocking has continued for months coinciding with negative NAO. Exciting times, because then we may very well have an interesting winter ahead in Europe.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11200-014-0508-z?fbclid=IwAR3quJ2Ai6OAsQPTSh-Q0MQKdNTrqDBUOtxzfH_KjU9JmITYplmnUs2vTaI

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2019.png

 

Makes the current situation appear -- on the face of it -- somewhat reminiscent of the 1960s, doesn't? Though once the negative NAO is taken out of the equation (along with the fact that there is currently very little cold around) all similarity seems to disappear...?

Methinks the NAO is far more important to NH weather-patterns than electromagnetism...Though that does not, of necessity, require one to dismiss electromagnetic effects per se -- just question their magnitude?

IMO, the Arctic is warming because of the build-up of anthropogenic greenhouse gases...and it's that that's causing the current high-latitude blocking. Will we have a colder winter? Quite possibly. But that will (or won't) happen no matter what the Sun is doing...?

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Makes the current situation appear -- on the face of it -- somewhat reminiscent of the 1960s, doesn't? Though once the negative NAO is taken out of the equation (along with the fact that there is currently very little cold around) all similarity seems to disappear...?

Methinks the NAO is far more important to NH weather-patterns than electromagnetism...Though that does not, of necessity, require one to dismiss electromagnetic effects per se -- just question their magnitude?

IMO, the Arctic is warming because of the build-up of anthropogenic greenhouse gases...and it's that that's causing the current high-latitude blocking. Will we have a colder winter? Quite possibly. But that will (or won't) happen no matter what the Sun is doing...?

 

Sorry - you are way off the mark there, look at what happened around 1800-1830 during solar cycles 5 and 6 and at the last solar Min, if you think climate change will totally override anything the sun does in the future then fine, that is your opinion and a perfectly acceptable one but to say right now it wont have an effect is wrong.

[Derecho]

23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Sorry - you are way off the mark there, look at what happened around 1800-1830 during solar cycles 5 and 6 and at the last solar Min, if you think climate change will totally override anything the sun does in the future then fine, that is your opinion and a perfectly acceptable one but to say right now it wont have an effect is wrong.

I think there is some complex underlying impact on atmospheric circulation patterns, 2010 and 1996 are such examples that indicate that. The early 1910s however did not follow suit with that minimum. 

I remember writing an assignment on the impact of solar activity on UK climate back in 2009 and the indications are that it has some impact on stratospheric ozone which has a knock on effect on atmospheric circulation patterns. I did it back in early 2009 though so my memory of how exactly it works is a bit foggy.

Question is how does climate change impact atmospheric circulation patterns? If it does have an impact then we can expect each solar minimum to be different given its role. If not then we can expect it will still keep influencing atmospheric circulation patterns in the future as per previous minimums.

My opinion is that if we do get a prolonged minimum and it does indeed impact atmospheric circulation, then winters over some mid-high latitude regions (like Western Europe and SE USA) could potentially see an increased frequency of cold winters but warming over the Tropics and Arctic would be greatly accelerated as the additional heat has to keep circulating somewhere else within the atmosphere.

Finally the early 1800s were an interesting period. However for my MSc dissertation I looked at how atmospheric circulation over England has varied since the late 1600s. The 1780s saw a large increase in easterly winds during winter months following the eruption of Katla in 1783. The winters of 1783/84, 1784/85, 1799/1800 and 1813/14 were dominated by NE winds. The period 1784-1814 was the most unusual period. 

Could the eruption of Katla caused that as well? Oddly enough westerlies became much more frequent for a time from 1816-1825. 1815/16, 1816/17, 1818/19 and 1821/22 (especially) saw much more in the way of westerlies. Of course that was after the eruption of Tambora. There was also another less well understood eruption in 1812 if I recall.

So clearly a lot going on in that time period. 

Edited August 23, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think there is some complex underlying impact on atmospheric circulation patterns, 2010 and 1996 are such examples that indicate that. The early 1910s however did not follow suit with that minimum. 

I remember writing an assignment on the impact of solar activity on UK climate back in 2009 and the indications are that it has some impact on stratospheric ozone which has a knock on effect on atmospheric circulation patterns. I did it back in early 2009 though so my memory of how exactly it works is a bit foggy.

Question is how does climate change impact atmospheric circulation patterns? If it does have an impact then we can expect each solar minimum to be different given its role. If not then we can expect it will still keep influencing atmospheric circulation patterns in the future as per previous minimums.

My opinion is that if we do get a prolonged minimum and it does indeed impact atmospheric circulation, then winters over some mid-high latitude regions (like Western Europe and SE USA) could potentially see an increased frequency of cold winters but warming over the Tropics and Arctic would be greatly accelerated as the additional heat has to keep circulating somewhere else within the atmosphere.

Finally the early 1800s were an interesting period. However for my MSc dissertation I looked at how atmospheric circulation over England has varied since the late 1600s. The 1780s saw a large increase in easterly winds during winter months following the eruption of Katla in 1783. The winters of 1783/84, 1784/85, 1799/1800 and 1813/14 were dominated by NE winds. The period 1784-1814 was the most unusual period. 

Could the eruption of Katla caused that as well? Oddly enough westerlies became much more frequent for a time from 1816-1825. 1815/16, 1816/17, 1818/19 and 1821/22 (especially) saw much more in the way of westerlies. Of course that was after the eruption of Tambora. There was also another less well understood eruption in 1812 if I recall.

So clearly a lot going on in that time period. 

Thanks for the reply, did your study actually take into consideration exactly how active these solar cycles were as well though, as people refer to cycle 23 (i think it was around the millenium) minimum as a pretty mild period for the UK with a distinct lack of blocking but that was still fairly high solar activity for a solar minimum so i gather.

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thanks for the reply, did your study actually take into consideration exactly how active these solar cycles were as well though, as people refer to cycle 23 (i think it was around the millenium) minimum as a pretty mild period for the UK with a distinct lack of blocking but that was still fairly high solar activity for a solar minimum so i gather.

It was more of a basic statistical analysis for my undergrad degree dissertation. I looked at sunspot numbers and solar irradiance and looking to see how they influenced the NAO and CET from the 17th century onwards. General picture was that there was a slight increase in the chance of severely cold winters during a minimum but then you get winters like the late 1860s (I think that was a minimum period) and early 1910s which were +NAO types.

So other things like SSTs may have come into play here. Below average SSTs off the East coast of Africa for example usually occur during the winter months with a strong Azores high as it advects cooler air from Western Europe over this region... and the SSTs over the North Atlantic in the early 1910s were much below average.

[Methuselah]

10 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Sorry - you are way off the mark there, look at what happened around 1800-1830 during solar cycles 5 and 6 and at the last solar Min, if you think climate change will totally override anything the sun does in the future then fine, that is your opinion and a perfectly acceptable one but to say right now it wont have an effect is wrong.

Morning feb.

Not saying that at all...just that whatever effect it might have, may (or may not?) be overridden by other factors? 

Whatever it was that caused the winter of 1962-63 to happen, I doubt it was much to do with Solar Cycles -- but it did coincide with the North Atlantic Oscillation (in its decadal sense) being very negative...

Who knows?

[feb1991blizzard]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Morning feb.

Not saying that at all...just that whatever effect it might have, may (or may not?) be overridden by other factors? 

Whatever it was that caused the winter of 1962-63 to happen, I doubt it was much to do with Solar Cycles -- but it did coincide with the North Atlantic Oscillation (in its decadal sense) being very negative...

Who knows?

Morning - re - 62-3 - there were other factors but would bet my bottom dollar that in solar Max the outcome would be different - re- NAO - not sure really the NAO is a decadal phenomenon TBH, have never studied its relationship with the PDO in any detail, i would suggest it is negative more often in -PDO winters but nowhere near concrete.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Morning - re - 62-3 - there were other factors but would bet my bottom dollar that in solar Max the outcome would be different - re- NAO - not sure really the NAO is a decadal phenomenon TBH, have never studied its relationship with the PDO in any detail, i would suggest it is negative more often in -PDO winters but nowhere near concrete.

This is what I'm on about, feb -- as opposed to the day-to-day fluctuations, that are often referred-to on here:

 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

This is what I'm on about, feb -- as opposed to the day-to-day fluctuations, that are often referred-to on here:

 

Is that showing a 0.5 correlation with +NAO and UK winter warmth or 0.5 degrees C warmer with a +NAO?   i    even so though, thats pretty standard, you would expect that surely?

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is that showing a 0.5 correlation with +NAO and UK winter warmth or 0.5 degrees C warmer with a +NAO?   i    even so though, thats pretty standard, you would expect that surely?

Indeed it is...it's both standard and expected.

If only I could find the latest decadal NAO data (with a smoothed curve) for the period since 2000...as it's probable (IMO) that the Solar min and the NAO are now working in the same direction...?

[Devonian]

I don't think the NAO is a cause of anything, it's a measure of pressure differential, it is something that happened. Is a cricketer doing well because of his high batting average? Nope.

Why does the NAO fluctuate? Because the pressure field across the N Atlantic fluctuates and taking a simply pressure difference between two point can be used to produce an index we call the NAO. Since it only has two points I think the NAO is a really crude measure. So the NAO index crudely reflects what the N Atlantic weather has been doing.

But, you can model what the state of the atmosphere in the N Atlantic will be and thus predict what the pressure differential between two points will be. Thus prediction of the NAO are simply another way of looking at what the computers are saying.

Edited August 24, 2019 by Devonian

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Devonian said:

I don't think the NAO is a cause of anything, it's a measure of pressure differential, it is something that happened. Is a cricketer doing well because of his batting average? Nope.

Why does the NAO fluctuate? Because the pressure field across the N Atlantic fluctuates and taking a simply pressure difference between two point can be used to produce an index we call the NAO. Since it only has two points I think the NAO is a really crude measure. So the NAO index crudely reflects what the N Atlantic weather has been doing.

But, you can model what the state of the atmosphere in the N Atlantic will be and thus predict what the pressure differential between two points will be. Thus prediction of the NAO are simply another way of looking at what the computers are saying.

Yes - always said that, i never see the point of those indices when looking for cold Uk weather, you are better off  just looking at the generic charts to see exactly what synoptics are on offer, you can have off the scale -NAO's that deliver not one flake to the UK, but you can have slightly negative ones with just small wedges of just above average over iceland that deliver a right old beast.

[JeffC]

Just resurrecting this thread - wondered whether people have any more factors they feel may have been influenced by Solar minimum, and to coin a kid in a car, "are we nearly there yet?!"?

[JeffC]

So, have we seen so far what we would expect from a solar minimum? 

Noctilucent clouds?

More Meridional weather?

Weather patterns stuck in a rut? More in 2018 than 2019??

Have we seen an uptick in seismic activity? 

Owt else? 

Edited October 5, 2019 by JeffC

[frederiksen90]

Is the solar minimum driving the interaction between NAO and SST?

Recent studies have shown that SST anomalies change with some delay between solar maximum and solar minimum. At the same time, the NAO suggests following the sun's AP index (geomagnetic activity). Looking back over the last 10 years, we have a clear tendency for changes in SST to follow changes in NAO. The most positive NAO values were around the solar maximum. Since then, NAO has been downhill slightly with a cold-warm-cold Atlantic tripole that has maintained colder waters around Greenland and warmer waters at Newfoundland. This year, the NAO has then passed the point where, on average, it is negative over several consecutive months, and it has apparently resulted in the SST anomalies following this trend. Now these have been changed to a hot-cold-hot tripol with warm sea in Greenland and cold in Newfoundland. The changes of the SST followed the changes of the NAO via the stratosphere-troposphere coupling coinciding with the solar wind previously downward. And the NAO should be correlated with the solar wind. If it is the solar wind that modulates NAO, then we have reached the point where the pressure gradient has been weakened, thus the ocean currents in the North Atlantic turned via sustained blocking over the Greenland and Arctic regions. And what makes it difficult to see a correlation globally is that the correlation appears to be greatest regionally and across Europe and the Atlantic as well as North America with little delay effect relative to maximum and minimum. If all this year is related to the solar minimum, then we really have an interesting winter ahead, I think. I'm excited. Here is the NAO index for autumn 2010-2019.

2010

https: //blogs.agu.org /.../ Screen-shot-2010-12-11-at-02:56:14 ....

NAO Average: -0.71

2011

https: //dcstorms.files.wordpress.com /.../.../ naoindex_ensem.jpg ...

NAO average: +0.63

2012

http://www.cbc.ca/nl/blogs/ryansnoddon/naoOct2412.PNG

NAO Average: -0.57

2013

https://www.weather2020.com/.../u.../2013/12/NAO-December-15.jpg

NAO average: +0.12

2014

https://www.boston.com/wp-conte.../uploads/2014/.../nao12314.png

NAO Average: -0.13

2015

http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/.../up.../2015/11/nao8.gif

NAO average: -0.00

2016

https: //cristcacewx.files.wordpress.com /.../ screenshot-2016-1 ...

NAO Average: -0.13

2017

https: //encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images ...

NAO Average: -0.16

2018

https: //weatherloverblog.files.wordpress.com /.../.../ nao467.gif ...

NAO Average: +0.59

2019

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/.../pr.../CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

NAO Average: -0.52

Looking at the last 10 fall, this year we have an average of several consecutive months representing the lowest NAO average along with 2010 and 2012. And how did they get winters?

[Metwatch]

Well it's almost summer 2020 now and solar minimum doesn't seem to be doing all that much for now. However this winter will be on the other side of minimum so meaning solar cycle 25 soon, which could help make this winter colder. But with QBO doing god knows what, not sure what will happen rest of this year. We also have la nina devloping too that needs monitoring, stronger atlantic hurricane season expected, sea ice somewhat lower. The ssta's show a posssible tripole forming and gulf stream slowing down/AMOC which is maybe reason for anticyclonic conditions this May 2020. So many factors and not just solar minimum. Also got idea of grand solar minimum but again unknown for now.

[Metwatch]

4 minutes ago, Jacky said:

Well it's almost summer 2020 now and solar minimum doesn't seem to be doing all that much for now. However this winter will be on the other side of minimum so meaning solar cycle 25 soon, which could help make this winter colder. But with QBO doing god knows what, not sure what will happen rest of this year. We also have la nina devloping too that needs monitoring, stronger atlantic hurricane season expected, sea ice somewhat lower. The ssta's show a posssible tripole forming and gulf stream slowing down/AMOC which is maybe reason for anticyclonic conditions this May 2020. So many factors and not just solar minimum. Also got idea of grand solar minimum but again unknown for now.

Also yup, this winter was a bust lol even though many said it could be quite cold. Need to check each parameter what happened etc

[Methuselah]

Well, seeing as the much-vaunted Solar Min had zero effect on our climate, maybe we should be looking to more prosaic processes?

 

[Inga Horwood]

19 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, seeing as the much-vaunted Solar Min had zero effect on our climate, maybe we should be looking to more prosaic processes?

 

I hoped this would be the BBC Horizon programme "Snowball Earth" (2001).  Fascinating - back then, plenty of people didn't really believe it and would not commit to it as a fact.  I think the science is pretty firm now, though.