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How will Solar Minimum affect weather and climate Take 2?


JeffC

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
1 minute ago, jonboy said:

No

 

Please don't be both dismissive and closed minded

Your quoted text (form the Met Office i think) says human made pollution might be part of the cause of them so your 'no' is contradicted by what you post...

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
1 minute ago, Devonian said:

Please don't be both dismissive and closed minded

Your quoted text (form the Met Office i think) says human made pollution might be part of the cause of them so your 'no' is contradicted by what you post...

If you bothered to read the last sentence of my post I clearly state that in my opinion it is down to how clod the thermosphere is so no contradiction at all. The only closed mind I would suggest is yours

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, jonboy said:

The 7.8 earthquake in San Francisco of 1906 occurred during cycle 14 which was a low solar cycle and there are many more examples including the recent examples of Christchurch New Zealand and the swarm of over 10,000 quakes that occurred on the germany/Czech rep border in 2011 close to previously thought extinct volcanoes or you could read the following

 Correlation of Solar Activity Minimums and Large Magnitude Geophysical Events: John L. Casey, Space and Science Research Center,  March 2010 

Ivanka Charvatova, Institut of Geophysics of AS CR, Bočni II, 141 31 Praha 4, Czech Republic: Long-term relations between the solar inertial motion (SIM) and solar, geomagnetic, volcanic activities and climate 

ToshikazuEbiska, Hiroko Miyahara, Tatsuhiko Sato, Yasuhiro Ishimine: Explosive volcanic eruptions triggered by cosmic rays: Volcano as a bubble chamber- – Godwana Research, November 2010 

In future before you use your usual tactic of belittling posts actually read them properly 

There are also many thousands of example of earthquakes that don't occur around solar minima...The 1906 quake makes a sample-size of one...Even Wakefield's infamous MMR-Autism study had a sample-size of 12! Why can't you just show us the data?

Anyone can imagine a volcano acting like a bubble chamber. But, can anyone provide any observations that show it to be so?

It's nowt to do with 'belittling'...those who make extraordinary claims must expect to provide the extraordinary evidence that goes with them?

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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
18 minutes ago, jonboy said:

The 7.8 earthquake in San Francisco of 1906 occurred during cycle 14 which was a low solar cycle and there are many more examples including the recent examples of Christchurch New Zealand and the swarm of over 10,000 quakes that occurred on the germany/Czech rep border in 2011 close to previously thought extinct volcanoes or you could read the following

 Correlation of Solar Activity Minimums and Large Magnitude Geophysical Events: John L. Casey, Space and Science Research Center,  March 2010 

Ivanka Charvatova, Institut of Geophysics of AS CR, Bočni II, 141 31 Praha 4, Czech Republic: Long-term relations between the solar inertial motion (SIM) and solar, geomagnetic, volcanic activities and climate 

ToshikazuEbiska, Hiroko Miyahara, Tatsuhiko Sato, Yasuhiro Ishimine: Explosive volcanic eruptions triggered by cosmic rays: Volcano as a bubble chamber- – Godwana Research, November 2010 

In future before you use your usual tactic of belittling posts actually read them properly 

Despite the claims of Piers Corbyn and others, no serious scientific study has found a clear correlation between solar activity and earthquake/volcanic eruption levels. No 1- or 22-year pattern is visible.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
23 minutes ago, jonboy said:

If you bothered to read the last sentence of my post I clearly state that in my opinion it is down to how clod the thermosphere is so no contradiction at all. The only closed mind I would suggest is yours

I asked "wrt noctilucent clouds could human made pollution be part of the cause of them?"

You said "no" (not 'possibly', not 'could be' but 'no'). A 'no' rules out any other possibility -  does it not? Or by 'no' do you mean 'I'm open to the possibility pollution might be involved'???

I pointed out your quoted text says pollution might be a part of the cause.

I'm not saying pollution is the full cause of noctilucent clouds just that it might be part of the cause. How can I be closed minded for being open to that possibility?

Edited by Devonian
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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
15 minutes ago, jonboy said:

Northern Hemisphere

Oh! Just as well I asked! I thought you meant the UK...

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
20 minutes ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

Despite the claims of Piers Corbyn and others, no serious scientific study has found a clear correlation between solar activity and earthquake/volcanic eruption levels. No 1- or 22-year pattern is visible.

Did you read the link I posted a few pages back?

 The weak quasi-biennial solar cycle is not obviously seen in the eruption data, nor are the two slow lunar tidal cycles of 8.85 and 18.6 years. Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland, covering the years 553-1972, reveals several very long periods ranging from ∼80 to ∼350 years and are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and carbon 14 records.

https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/st07500u.html

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
41 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

There are also many thousands of example of earthquakes that don't occur around solar minima...The 1906 quake makes a sample-size of one...Even Wakefield's infamous MMR-Autism study had a sample-size of 12! Why can't you just show us the data?

Anyone can imagine a volcano acting like a bubble chamber. But, can anyone provide any observations that show it to be so?

It's nowt to do with 'belittling'...those who make extraordinary claims must expect to provide the extraordinary evidence that goes with them?

The very fact use used the word 'extraordinary' proves my point. I assume the three quote research papers are 'extraordinary' in there findings

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
44 minutes ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

Despite the claims of Piers Corbyn and others, no serious scientific study has found a clear correlation between solar activity and earthquake/volcanic eruption levels. No 1- or 22-year pattern is visible.

What's Piers Corbyn got to do with this unless you are of course lumping the scientists who's research I quoted into the same bracket as Piers?

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
38 minutes ago, Devonian said:

I asked "wrt noctilucent clouds could human made pollution be part of the cause of them?"

You said "no" (not 'possibly', not 'could be' but 'no'). A 'no' rules out any other possibility -  does it not? Or by 'no' do you mean 'I'm open to the possibility pollution might be involved'???

I pointed out your quoted text says pollution might be a part of the cause.

I'm not saying pollution is the full cause of noctilucent clouds just that it might be part of the cause. How can I be closed minded for being open to that possibility?

But the way you structure your response is such that you clearly think that is the case and low solar minimum is secondary. That is clearly not the case

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
37 minutes ago, Devonian said:

Oh! Just as well I asked! I thought you meant the UK...

Which is by default part of the NH

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
21 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Did you read the link I posted a few pages back?

 The weak quasi-biennial solar cycle is not obviously seen in the eruption data, nor are the two slow lunar tidal cycles of 8.85 and 18.6 years. Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland, covering the years 553-1972, reveals several very long periods ranging from ∼80 to ∼350 years and are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and carbon 14 records.

https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/st07500u.html

The question is are we in that very low cycle territory. I certainly don't think we are in grand minimum territory but certainly Sporer territory yes.

These are exciting times for research and understanding how such low solar cycles may or may not impact our planet

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
46 minutes ago, jonboy said:

The very fact use used the word 'extraordinary' proves my point. I assume the three quote research papers are 'extraordinary' in there findings

You evidently don't get the meaning of 'extraordinary'? Post some links, and I'll give them a read...?:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
1 hour ago, jonboy said:

But the way you structure your response is such that you clearly think that is the case and low solar minimum is secondary. That is clearly not the case

I said "I'm not saying pollution is the full cause of noctilucent clouds just that it might be part of the cause." and I said that because that's what I think. I also linked to an article that says:

"We are also in a deep solar minimum, the period of the sun’s 11-year cycle when it is least active. That means the ultraviolet radiation from the sun that usually destroys the water modules which form these clouds is less intense, so more of them can form.

Human emissions could also be a factor. Over the past 130 years we have released more and more methane into the atmosphere, which means that more water modules are produced in the mesosphere. These clouds were once a rare sight for humans of the past to observe, first recorded only after the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa spewed an incredible amount of dust into the atmosphere. But since then they have become a more and more common sight."

So, I think that the reasons for more noctilucent cloud could, amongst other things, be both the solar minimum and man made pollution. It seems you categorically rule out  the latter?

Edited by Devonian
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

jonboy, we will not see another 09/10 winter. We will see a 2019/20 winter and though, as we've been seeing since 09/10, someone will cop it as the Polar Night Jet is again impacted in its formation through autumn/early winter. As it is the 2012 record Arctic lows, and the consequent opening of the Pacific side of the basin , early doors since, appears ( to me?) to place the areas worst impacted as NE USA/SE Canada, East Asia and the rim of the Arctic ocean on the Russian side.

Again we saw an  early opening , and so harvesting of all that solar, over the Pacific side of the basin this spring (after a very low number winter there?) so I see no reason to see 'changes', from those in 09' minimum, making themselves felt (as we have been experiencing from this 'summer set up' since 2012?)

EDIT: I find it odd that our pre industrial society did not note 'Noctilucents' even though they would have been far more 'used' to the night sky than most of us in the developed world? Any explanation jonboy?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

Thanks All

Resistive type of discussion we should be having

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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
5 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

Did you read the link I posted a few pages back?

 The weak quasi-biennial solar cycle is not obviously seen in the eruption data, nor are the two slow lunar tidal cycles of 8.85 and 18.6 years. Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland, covering the years 553-1972, reveals several very long periods ranging from ∼80 to ∼350 years and are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and carbon 14 records.

https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/st07500u.html

There is a quasi-two-year solar cycle as well?

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
18 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

You evidently don't get the meaning of 'extraordinary'? Post some links, and I'll give them a read...?:oldgood:

Yup anyone can write anything to try and sound convincing... but if there are no references or statistics to back it up then there is no way to prove volcanic activity and earthquakes increase during solar minimums. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
20 hours ago, jonboy said:

What's Piers Corbyn got to do with this unless you are of course lumping the scientists who's research I quoted into the same bracket as Piers?

You said it.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Paper  which  highlights  Sunspots and Earthquake activity   page 3 is useful  as it shows the amount of earthquakes over a period of time   compared with sunspots  and the cycle  

sun.pdf

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
15 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Paper  which  highlights  Sunspots and Earthquake activity   page 3 is useful  as it shows the amount of earthquakes over a period of time   compared with sunspots  and the cycle  

sun.pdf 296.98 kB · 1 download

Many thanks, Mark. Downloaded and printed. Will get back to you!:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Paper  which  highlights  Sunspots and Earthquake activity   page 3 is useful  as it shows the amount of earthquakes over a period of time   compared with sunspots  and the cycle  

sun.pdf 296.98 kB · 6 downloads

Strikes me as a very odd paper, The Figure on page 3 makes no sense as they conclude that peaks of the solar cycle coincide with increased earthquakes... yet 2008 had far more earthquakes then 1999 and these were minimum and maximum years respectively! They just seem to add a trend line for fun that doesn't mean anything. Also were more earthquakes able to be reported in Iran during then 2010s compared to the 1970s? If so the increase in earthquakes may be artificial.

image.thumb.png.2822ad9911b84461a8e55a6fcc1554bf.png

Going back to the 1960-2010s period they use, this only covers 4 maxima and minima periods! They then perform a regression on a mere 4 points to support their conclusions. 4 points is nowhere near enough to support such a conclusion.

image.thumb.png.046d8ba34b923a490e9d04ab44e877c2.png

Doesn't surprise me that on google the paper only has 5 citations... if the conclusions of the paper were valid it would probably have at least 15,000 citations, rather then 5.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Paper  which  highlights  Sunspots and Earthquake activity   page 3 is useful  as it shows the amount of earthquakes over a period of time   compared with sunspots  and the cycle  

sun.pdf 296.98 kB · 6 downloads

Hi Mark.

Just given it the 'once-over' and a few seemingly 'odd' things have struck me:

  1. Australia is not a 'well known active region in earthquake';
  2. The long-term increase in the frequency of earthquakes, in Iran, might also be explained by improvements in seismic-detection techniques, since 1964;
  3. The nearly 300% jump, in earthquake activity,, just prior to 1979, coincides rather too closely, for my liking, with the run-up to the overthrow of the Shah of Iran;

But, apart from those errors/possible confounding variables, I quote verbatim their conclusion:

       'It is expecting [sic] that different regions [would] show different results because the Earth is not a            homogeneous and isotropic object and therefore different regions have different tectonic                        properties. Finally we find that solar activities may play an external effect on earthquakes [sic]                occurrence. (bolding by me)

Has there, do you know, been any further research done in this area? If there were, I think it'd be interesting to read.:oldgood:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
7 hours ago, weirpig said:

Paper  which  highlights  Sunspots and Earthquake activity   page 3 is useful  as it shows the amount of earthquakes over a period of time   compared with sunspots  and the cycle  

sun.pdf 296.98 kB · 11 downloads

Having read what Ed and QS have said I'm ready to call it: that paper is bunk.

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