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How will Solar Minimum affect weather and climate Take 2?


JeffC

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

There's a difference between sun spots and solar output. Solar output is taken as a constant by scientists. Though that probably isn't the case in reality. 

Of course CO2 is the main driver of temperature change, can't see anyone denying that, but I stand by the opinion that the sun also has an effect.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
27 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Ironic you refer to me as having a closed mind when you refuse to accept that anthropogenic GhG emissions are causing a dangerous amount of warming...

Regional climate there is some evidence it can increase the chance of colder winters over certain areas such as NW Europe but globally its impact is dwarfed by the increasing temperatures from GhG emissions. I have even done a dissertation on the matter! so I think describing me as having a closed mind is a very poor description given the amount of time I've spent reading on the subject and the amount of time I've spent studying global climate overall.

Well that's the then, might as well close the thread and tell any scientists looking into sun and climate to stop wasting their time..

Closed mind.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There's a difference between sun spots and solar output. Solar output is taken as a constant by scientists. Though that probably isn't the case in reality. 

Of course CO2 is the main driver of temperature change, can't see anyone denying that, but I stand by the opinion that the sun also has an effect.

Absolutely agree, Crew!:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I think folk also need accept that not only had Mother N. some ways of 'spending' incoming solar so that it did not get into the climate system but that the flip side of man's pollution also kept some of the solar from engaging in the climate system ( Global dimming).

The ice that used to keep solar busy all summer ( over those loooong 24 hr days) is now diminishing allowing ever earlier 'open to solar' areas of the the planet to milk the incoming solar.

also our 'dimming issue now seems to be receding as the west's 'clean air acts' begin impacting and China sorts out its urban pollution adding all of that solar , trapped at the top of the atmosphere, back into play.

The Solar variance in output is triflingly small when compared to the extra W/m2 we now see across the planet and the direction of travel is in one direction with a Polar 'Blue Ocean Event' ever closer and scrubbing technology ever more effective in capturing particulates/SO2......

Then we have our GHG outputs and for all the fine words we are currently hearing we are still seeing a near 4ppm increase for the past 12 months.......B.A.U. and then some!

Maybe folk would like to check out how long , over past decades, it took us to put 10ppm into our atmosphere and see if they can spot a trend esp. in our 'let's drastically cut emmisions' world?

I'm sorry but rampant Capitalism got us into this mess and you seriously expect it to save us from its gross polluting?

Wake up, get real,talk sense!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

How will solar minimum affect weather and climate take 7?

Its an interesting question and one that cannot be destroyed by those with closed minds.

My mind is open to what the data shows, what observations show and what scientists say.

Thus my mind is open to there being a solar effect on climate in that the tiny (considerably less than 1%) changes to solar output can have an effect on climate. My mind is also open there being a much bigger effect on climate due to the (30%+) increase in greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere and other anthropogenic changes.

Is your mind that open? If it is we're in agreement

edit: oopss, reposted this thinking it was an edit - doh!

Edited by Devonian
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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
4 minutes ago, Devonian said:

 

 

Edited by Devonian
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

There's a difference between sun spots and solar output. Solar output is taken as a constant by scientists. Though that probably isn't the case in reality. 

Of course CO2 is the main driver of temperature change, can't see anyone denying that, but I stand by the opinion that the sun also has an effect.

Can't argue with that. For me it's just a question of how its influence over regional variability comes into play when you have the likes of the PDO, ENSO, climate change and Atlantic SSTs also having a say. A few years of low solar activity (sunspots, irradiance variation etc) would suggest that the NAO may turn negative but that is not certain.

Cold winters in our part of the world won't be a thing of the past though.

However the increasing heat year on year will carry on building up. If the NAO were to turn strongly negative mid latitudes would see colder winters but this would also mean accelerated warming over equatorial regions (due to less heat being carried away from these regions to mid latitudes) and also over polar regions (cold air wouldn't build up as much... it would frequently be released over mid-latitude regions).

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

There's a difference between sun spots and solar output. Solar output is taken as a constant by scientists. Though that probably isn't the case in reality. 

Of course CO2 is the main driver of temperature change, can't see anyone denying that, but I stand by the opinion that the sun also has an effect.

There's also a difference between what to expect from low sunspot levels when the reality is that you can get sudden bursts of activity in solar wind during periods of almost zero sunspots. I suspect this is why the up slope of a new cycle has been seen to be more conducive to cold periods in NW Europe. We are also looking at history as a guide ... earth has a very changed profile now in comparison to the last documented minimums. The recent images of urban heat pollution from the ECOSTRESS monitor aboard the ISS have changed my views substantially. 

Edited by Gael_Force
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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

Thanks for the input folks, all good debate regarding the various opinions, but please can we try to stay away from the accusatory tone that some are taking?

We all have opinions as to why this or that is or isn't happening, and that's right an proper but it would make me deliriously happy if we could quit with the one-upmanship stuff.

Cheers

JC

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
5 hours ago, JeffC said:

Thanks for the input folks, all good debate regarding the various opinions, but please can we try to stay away from the accusatory tone that some are taking?

We all have opinions as to why this or that is or isn't happening, and that's right an proper but it would make me deliriously happy if we could quit with the one-upmanship stuff.

Cheers

JC

 

 

Fair enough, it's not about one-upmanship though its about separating facts from fiction where necessary. Stating things like 'the goalposts have moved' when they clearly haven't I believe needs to be called out. It isn't as if science lazily puts things together. A PhD is the toughest thing I've done and that includes 12 hour surgery after being unable to walk a decent for the first 15 years of my life until it was done.

Opinion is all good and well (such as regional climate variations due to variations in the solar cycle). However I think deliberate attacks on climate scientists are deemed acceptable by a small minority yet they wouldn't criticise a plasterer if they painstakingly did their construction work. It may appear as one-upmanship but its not, some people aim to mislead.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Fair enough, it's not about one-upmanship though its about separating facts from fiction where necessary. Stating things like 'the goalposts have moved' when they clearly haven't I believe needs to be called out. It isn't as if science lazily puts things together. A PhD is the toughest thing I've done and that includes 12 hour surgery after being unable to walk a decent for the first 15 years of my life until it was done.

Opinion is all good and well (such as regional climate variations due to variations in the solar cycle). However I think deliberate attacks on climate scientists are deemed acceptable by a small minority yet they wouldn't criticise a plasterer if they painstakingly did their construction work. It may appear as one-upmanship but its not, some people aim to mislead.

Aye but if it gets too heated, the thread will be locked like the first one was, then we might end up at "take 7" ....

Just requesting a nicer way to debate without inflaming others....

Edited by JeffC
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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
6 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Aye but if it gets too heated, the thread will be locked like the first one was, then we might end up a "take 7" ....

Just requesting a nicer way to debate without inflaming others....

I agree. it would be nicer if people were not being described as closed minded. That would be nice.

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Posted
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
  • Location: Lower Brynamman, nr Ammanford, 160-170m a.s.l.
12 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

How will solar minimum affect weather and climate take 7?

Its an interesting question and one that cannot be destroyed by those with closed minds.

Don't let's start with the personal insults again, please.

There has been no correlation between the current solar minimum and cold winters in this part of the globe. The prolonged chills and heavy snowfalls of 6-8 years ago occurred when solar activity was relatively high compared to now.

 

Anyway, how do you destroy a question?

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

The original premise of this thread, and it's predecessor was to illicit dialogue and debate on the effects of solar minimum this time around and compare with previous to see what,  if anything changes with a minimum  and whether anything remotely predictable and therefore forecastable could be established. 

Noctilucent clouds are one fingerprint which shows it doesn't take an awful lot of reduction in what we see as activity to make a difference, same with, to some extent the meridonal tendency for weather patterns vs typically more zonal... can we agree on that?

There may be other facets which are worthy of a (respectful) discussion too.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I think we have to accept that we are in differing times to 10 years back?

The Change back to positive,of the Pacific Naturals  back in 2014, seems to have had a marked impact ( along with the autumn/early winter rearrangements of the Polar upper trop/lower strat and the continued reduction in global Dimming?) on our current rate of warming ?

Also this Solar min is different to last Solar min so we will not see any 'repeat of 09/10'.

I think we all know that a slight change in the position of any blocking High will alter the area that feeds into the UK and so the weathers we feel?

The extra energy now in the system ( compared to 09/10?) must surely alter the positioning of our Polar Jet and so the pressures we end up with?

We may as well ask if we will see the Mother of all Bartletts this winter!

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
4 hours ago, JeffC said:

The original premise of this thread, and it's predecessor was to illicit dialogue and debate on the effects of solar minimum this time around and compare with previous to see what,  if anything changes with a minimum  and whether anything remotely predictable and therefore forecastable could be established. 

Noctilucent clouds are one fingerprint which shows it doesn't take an awful lot of reduction in what we see as activity to make a difference, same with, to some extent the meridonal tendency for weather patterns vs typically more zonal... can we agree on that?

There may be other facets which are worthy of a (respectful) discussion too.

 

Hi JeffC I will respond as your original question on Saturday and certainly will not revert, like some have, into turning this into a CO2 debate or debunking others views as 'deniers'.

There is a thought that during solar minimum and especially long and deep minimum that there is an increase in both earthquake and volcanic activity. This occurs because the suns heliosphere is reduced during minimum and especially so during deep prolonged minimum. The heliosphere protects earth cosmic rays and Muons and the theory goes that during minimum these particles have a greater chance to penetrate the earths core and thus agitates/heats the core creating more and larger earth quakes/volcanic activity. This doesn't happen overnight hence why the effect is more pronounced during deep minimum.

Again in regard to planetary waves again these in a large part are dependant to where we sit at anyone time within the solar system in relation to the other planets and much research is occurring in this field.

Many responses to your question say that solar output varies over a cycle by a few percent and that I true for some elements but for things like EUV and FUV output varies by several 100% especially when you compare grand maximum (arguably cycles 21 & 22 fall into that category) to a grand minimum and their impacts are not yet fully understood on our climate patterns.

An example of this is the thermosphere which is today standing at 2.82 and is going down when you could reasonably expect at this time of year for it to rise slightly. This is in comparison to a high of 49.4 and we don't fully understand what the impacts of such a change has on our climate systems whether large or small.

So to answer your question In my opinion solar minimum and especially deep solar minimum does have an effect on volcanic and earthquake activity 

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
29 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I think we have to accept that we are in differing times to 10 years back?

The Change back to positive,of the Pacific Naturals  back in 2014, seems to have had a marked impact ( along with the autumn/early winter rearrangements of the Polar upper trop/lower strat and the continued reduction in global Dimming?) on our current rate of warming ?

Also this Solar min is different to last Solar min so we will not see any 'repeat of 09/10'.

I think we all know that a slight change in the position of any blocking High will alter the area that feeds into the UK and so the weathers we feel?

The extra energy now in the system ( compared to 09/10?) must surely alter the positioning of our Polar Jet and so the pressures we end up with?

We may as well ask if we will see the Mother of all Bartletts this winter!

This has nothing to do with the question asked but please explain what you think is different?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
23 minutes ago, jonboy said:

So to answer your question In my opinion solar minimum and especially deep solar minimum does have an effect on volcanic and earthquake activity 

But do you have any data with which to back-up that opinion, jonboy? Wouldn't sudden rashes of intense volcanoes and/or seismic events, that occur during solar minima, be readily observed in the records?

If muons' putative interactions with Earth's core (volcanism is caused by convection-driven movements of magma within the upper mantle/lower crust, and not within the solid nickel-iron core) can indeed trigger 'Seismageddon', maybe we should all refrain from sunbathing, for the immediate future...?:oldgrin:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
10 minutes ago, jonboy said:

This has nothing to do with the question asked but please explain what you think is different?

Because no two things are identical in this universe jonboy!

This is not the sun as it was in 2009/10 this is the Sun in 2019.

Simples!!!

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

But do you have any data with which to back-up that opinion, jonboy? Wouldn't sudden rashes of intense volcanoes and/or seismic events, that occur during solar minima, be readily observed in the records?

If muons' putative interactions with Earth's core (volcanism is caused by convection-driven movements of magma within the upper mantle/lower crust, and not within the solid nickel-iron core) can indeed trigger 'Seismageddon', maybe we should all refrain from sunbathing, for the immediate future...?:oldgrin:

The 7.8 earthquake in San Francisco of 1906 occurred during cycle 14 which was a low solar cycle and there are many more examples including the recent examples of Christchurch New Zealand and the swarm of over 10,000 quakes that occurred on the germany/Czech rep border in 2011 close to previously thought extinct volcanoes or you could read the following

 Correlation of Solar Activity Minimums and Large Magnitude Geophysical Events: John L. Casey, Space and Science Research Center,  March 2010 

Ivanka Charvatova, Institut of Geophysics of AS CR, Bočni II, 141 31 Praha 4, Czech Republic: Long-term relations between the solar inertial motion (SIM) and solar, geomagnetic, volcanic activities and climate 

ToshikazuEbiska, Hiroko Miyahara, Tatsuhiko Sato, Yasuhiro Ishimine: Explosive volcanic eruptions triggered by cosmic rays: Volcano as a bubble chamber- – Godwana Research, November 2010 

In future before you use your usual tactic of belittling posts actually read them properly 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
8 hours ago, JeffC said:

The original premise of this thread, and it's predecessor was to illicit dialogue and debate on the effects of solar minimum this time around and compare with previous to see what,  if anything changes with a minimum  and whether anything remotely predictable and therefore forecastable could be established. 

Noctilucent clouds are one fingerprint which shows it doesn't take an awful lot of reduction in what we see as activity to make a difference, same with, to some extent the meridonal tendency for weather patterns vs typically more zonal... can we agree on that?

There may be other facets which are worthy of a (respectful) discussion too.

 

wrt noctilucent clouds could human made pollution be part of the cause of them?

 

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
3 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Because no two things are identical in this universe jonboy!

This is not the sun as it was in 2009/10 this is the Sun in 2019.

Simples!!!

Simples is you made a statement that this cycle is different to 09/10 and making an inference that we won't the winter of 09/10 won't happen again. Please explain what you mean given the context of the question posed. Please don't take this back to your normal dismissive manner. 

For the record a colder and snowier winter than 09/10 will occur in the next 2 years

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
4 minutes ago, jonboy said:

Simples is you made a statement that this cycle is different to 09/10 and making an inference that we won't the winter of 09/10 won't happen again. Please explain what you mean given the context of the question posed. Please don't take this back to your normal dismissive manner. 

For the record a colder and snowier winter than 09/10 will occur in the next 2 years

A prediction to cut out and pin on the 'weather predictions to check later' board.. Will occur where though?

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
8 minutes ago, Devonian said:

wrt noctilucent clouds could human made pollution be part of the cause of them?

 

No

What are Noctilucent clouds?

Noctilucent clouds are extremely rare collections of ice crystals, occasionally appearing in late clear summer evenings after sunset, but before it gets completely dark. They become visible about the same time as the brightest stars appear and often stay visible after dark because they are still reflecting sunlight due to their great height. They are higher up than any other clouds, occupying the layer of atmosphere known as the Mesosphere, and are only seen at latitudes between 45°N and 80°N in the Northern Hemisphere, and equivalent latitudes in the southern hemisphere. They are seen less often in the southern hemisphere as there is very little land and very few people there. Only the southern tip of Argentina and Chile, and the Antarctic are at the correct latitude.

How do Noctilucent clouds form?

Like many clouds, noctilucent clouds need water vapour, dust, and very low temperatures to form. Low temperatures are easily attainable in the Mesosphere, but water vapour and dust are in short supply. The dust may well come from tiny meteors from space, although dust from volcanoes or man-made pollutants may add to these. Scientists believe that the moisture comes through gaps in the tropopause, or perhaps forms from the chemical reaction of methane and other chemicals.

 

The main reason we are seeing these clouds in this part of the world is the same reason we see more aura in winter. During solar minimum and again especially deep minimum this formations extent further south than in normal cycles.

The fact that we can see noctilucent clouds is an indication of how cold the thermosphere is and how low the minimum is

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
2 minutes ago, Devonian said:

A prediction to cut out and pin on the 'weather predictions to check later' board.. Will occur where though?

Northern Hemisphere

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