How will Solar Minimum affect weather and climate Take 2?

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yes indeed...I referred to this sometime long ago calling it ‘rut weather’ ie a pattern gets stuck in a rut.  Yes LIA circulation pattern is imo taking firmer and firmer hold, jetstream becoming ever more meridional. See my sig...LIA footprint

BFTP

Could be good. Short but severe winters offset by long hot summers sounds fine to me...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Could be good. Short but severe winters offset by long hot summers sounds fine to me...

I’ll have some of that Pete

[jethro]

7 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Could be good. Short but severe winters offset by long hot summers sounds fine to me...

My idea of heaven. I'll be less impressed if we get stuck in a very soggy rut for weeks on end.

[JeffC]

4 hours ago, jethro said:

My idea of heaven. I'll be less impressed if we get stuck in a very soggy rut for weeks on end.

Lol if it does that spare a thought for us in Cumbria! We usually have trench foot while the rest of the country has a tan!

[JeffC]

14 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Hi Jeff, of course we won’t know for sure until we go through it.  But for me there is plenty of evidence showing the effects......I think the division is mainly was it localised cooling eg Western Europe or more widespread and will current warming (if man made) override it or (if natural) will we see a reverse.  What is gaining rapid support is that the solar effect is getting a lot more attention.....and quite rightly so.

My view is we are at the precipice....winters to be more like 40s to 70s levels on step down one (from now) and step down 2 later in 2020s as we approach minima of 25 winters of Grand Minima standard “Dickensian style”.  I think Volcanic activity and major eruption to trigger second step down as I believe there is good statistical evidence of major eruptions during deep minima.  It is statistical so could be coincidental....but is a v good stat

BFTP

Volcanic activity could be associated with variance in geomagnetic influences?

[jethro]

27 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Lol if it does that spare a thought for us in Cumbria! We usually have trench foot while the rest of the country has a tan!

I live in the soggy south west, we webbed footed folk need to stick together.

[JeffC]

3 minutes ago, jethro said:

I live in the soggy south west, we webbed footed folk need to stick together.

Sort of mi canoe es tu canoe?

Edited October 21, 2018 by JeffC

[lassie23]

I think it will increase the chances of sleet in London by 9.6 percent 

[JeffC]

well we're at 59% for spotless days so far this year, meaning that whether it is actually solar minimum or there is still some further descent to be had,. the sun is  now less active than earlier in the cycle and seems to be "dropping off" quicker than previous cycles.

It wouldn't surprise me to see 225/365 spotless days by calendar year end, which would be roughly 62%.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 30/10/2018 at 22:51, JeffC said:

well we're at 59% for spotless days so far this year, meaning that whether it is actually solar minimum or there is still some further descent to be had,. the sun is  now less active than earlier in the cycle and seems to be "dropping off" quicker than previous cycles.

It wouldn't surprise me to see 225/365 spotless days by calendar year end, which would be roughly 62%.

Generally low solar activity cycles are longer than active ones.  Those suggesting this is solar minima means cycle 24 is 10 years long...shorter than 11yr average.  That is against the findings, this isn’t solar minimum imo but the start, next 2 years could see 300 days exceeded as we plunge into Grand Minima.

 

BFTP

[JeffC]

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/?fbclid=IwAR2Gi6MZ0EfKNQgwEJbP7QRcA3KzbZw_1lCr3vubz837dVf1r_iDgP33D8c

 

[Katrine Basso]

The amount of sun spotless days for the year has reached 184 days.  Today is the 18th consecutive sun spotless day.

[tablet]

Valentina Zharkova just gave a presentation , and because her model  was one of 4 out of 100 that successfully predicted the low solar cycle 24 , you should give her a listen

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXLqOzJ27YA

 

[tablet]

if Valentina Zharkova is right , and it's not going to take hundreds of years to see , or even 10 years , then we are at the start of a very bad period for food production

[JeffC]

3 hours ago, tablet said:

Valentina Zharkova just gave a presentation , and because her model  was one of 4 out of 100 that successfully predicted the low solar cycle 24 , you should give her a listen

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXLqOzJ27YA

 

really interesting but sound quality made me stop, thought I was hearing voices!

[tablet]

My apologies JeffC , but it was the best audio version I could currently find , I am waiting for a write up , which shouldn't be long in appearing

[JeffC]

1 hour ago, tablet said:

My apologies JeffC , but it was the best audio version I could currently find , I am waiting for a write up , which shouldn't be long in appearing

Not yotr fault bud, just made it difficult to understand! 

[Devonian]

5 hours ago, tablet said:

Valentina Zharkova just gave a presentation , and because her model  was one of 4 out of 100 that successfully predicted the low solar cycle 24 , you should give her a listen

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXLqOzJ27YA

 

You make the claim.

Ok, lets see the 96 wrong models and the 4 right ones please.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Devonian

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 hours ago, tablet said:

Valentina Zharkova just gave a presentation , and because her model  was one of 4 out of 100 that successfully predicted the low solar cycle 24 , you should give her a listen

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXLqOzJ27YA

 

Correct, folk should give her some of their time

BFTP 

[Devonian]

28 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Correct, folk should give her some of their time

BFTP 

I've looked at the video - if it were by the IPCC and they hid part of the presentation (as GWPF do from minute 44) Tablet would be going on about a world conspiracy to hide data from us

[Yarmy]

7 hours ago, tablet said:

Valentina Zharkova just gave a presentation , and because her model  was one of 4 out of 100 that successfully predicted the low solar cycle 24 , you should give her a listen

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXLqOzJ27YA

 

Where are you getting 4 out of 100 from? 

The most comprehensive review I’ve seen was here:

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html

Of the 45 assessed, 16 went low, 22 medium, and 7 high. All but 1 of the forecasts that used purely physical methods correctly predicted a low minimum.

[Yarmy]

Duh, a low *maximum* of course, not minimum. Time for bed.

[jethro]

They always say if folk are willing to put their money where their mouth is then you should believe...

I pass the local gritting depot on my way to work, as I approached, coming towards me was a brand new, bright, shiny, gritting lorry with the words 'Ice Destroyer' emblazoned down the side. Nothing special. BUT, attached to the front was a massive, ski resort style snow plough, not your average gritting lorry snow plough, an enormous, humungous, giant snow plough. Given that the council is seriously strapped for cash, making cut backs right, left and centre, I'm taking this as proof positive we're in for a humdinger of a winter. Not just this winter either, that sort of investment can only be justified by repeated use, Mendip Council clearly think the predicted long and low solar minimum is going to usher in a new era of snowy winters.

 

 

No, I don't want my bubble burst. Believe.....

[virtualsphere]

Interesting prediction for SC25 - behind a paywall at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018GL078387 but there's a pre-print version here https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.04868 

This compares to previous predictions that SC25 would be similar to SC24: https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.05106 

This is another interesting paper on the longer term solar cycle, and predictability of minima: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013JA019478

[JeffC]

14 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:

Interesting prediction for SC25 - behind a paywall at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018GL078387 but there's a pre-print version here https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.04868 

This compares to previous predictions that SC25 would be similar to SC24: https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.05106 

This is another interesting paper on the longer term solar cycle, and predictability of minima: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013JA019478

Have you read it? Conclusion?