October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 11.9C -0.7C below normal. Rainfall 20mm 24.2% of the months rainfall.

[NorthYorksWeather]

12.1c here to the 12th, 1.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

20.6mm of rain so far.

[Man With Beard]

Any chance of a 19C or 20C CET day? Many stations had a minima of 18C or more, quite widely. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Any chance of a 19C or 20C CET day? Many stations had a minima of 18C or more, quite widely. 

Nope. The minimum for today was recorded between 9am yesterday and 9am today. 9am yesterday was around high 14s or so for the CET area, so that will likely be the minimum for today.
It's still almost certain to be a record breaker, but I suspect something closer to high 17s or 18C as an average.

[Summer Sun]

13.1 to the 12th

1.2 above the 61 to 90 average
1.1 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th

[Man With Beard]

34 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Nope. The minimum for today was recorded between 9am yesterday and 9am today. 9am yesterday was around high 14s or so for the CET area, so that will likely be the minimum for today.
It's still almost certain to be a record breaker, but I suspect something closer to high 17s or 18C as an average.

ah, didn't know that, thank you!

[reef]

Today's min is down as 15.2C on Hadley, so warmest since 22nd August.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Only need a max today of 18.5C or higher for a new daily record. We've probably got that already today.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up 12.2C -0.4C below average. Rainfall 30.2mm 36.5% of average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 12.5C +0.1C above normal. Should drift downwards slightly this week. Rainfall 32.8mm 39.6% of average.

[NorthYorksWeather]

12.5c here to the 13th, 1.5c above the 1981-2010 average.

Looks like its now peaked at its highest, but not sure we can get down to average by month end.

[Summer Sun]

13.4 to the 13th

1.6 above the 61 to 90 average
1.5 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

[BornFromTheVoid]

At 18.1C, yesterday is provisionally the latest date to achieve a daily mean CET of 18C or higher.

The previous record was 19.0C on the 6th of October, recorded in 1921. That year had a remarkable late season warm spell, averaging 17.5C in the 8 days from the 4th to 11th (17.1C, 17.7C, 19.0C, 16.9C, 17.1C, 17.0C, 17.8C, 17.4C)
.

[Scorcher]

5 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

At 18.1C, yesterday is provisionally the latest date to achieve a daily mean CET of 18C or higher.

The previous record was 19.0C on the 6th of October, recorded in 1921. That year had a remarkable late season warm spell, averaging 17.5C in the 8 days from the 4th to 11th (17.1C, 17.7C, 19.0C, 16.9C, 17.1C, 17.0C, 17.8C, 17.4C)
.

Amazing to get an 18C+ day in mid October. Another October event that will live long in my memory.

[Summer Sun]

13.3 to the 14th

1.6 above the 61 to 90 average
1.5 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 12.4C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall 48mm 58% of average.

[NorthYorksWeather]

12.2c here to the 14th, 1.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

Rainfall: 33.2mm

[damianslaw]

Half way stage of the month, and we are at a peak - not often we see values rising through October, however, with 2 weeks to go, it will be a gradual climb down from here on in I believe. Nothing overly chilly in the immediate, indeed temps a little above average still in the CET zone, some cool nights will cancel out the continued very mild maxima.

Next week looks generally cool overall, average at best, but trending colder by the end of the month - if today's models verify.

A finish in the 11s most likely, so another above average month but not especially so.

 

[Roger J Smith]

I mentioned last month that we would see some updates on EWP at strategic times (like after it has rained a lot). 

So after 14 days, the EWP tracker (kindly supplied by weather-history, link at bottom of this post) reports 54 mm so far ... that is 62% of the 1961-90 normal that they use, more like 55% of the larger normals in more recent periods that we use. Seems broadly similar to what Pit and Vizzy2004 have reported from their sites. And it's roughly normal for the first two weeks of October, or slightly above. 

Link to site: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/charts/hadukp_daily_plots.html

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I mentioned last month that we would see some updates on EWP at strategic times (like after it has rained a lot). 

So after 14 days, the EWP tracker (kindly supplied by weather-history, link at bottom of this post) reports 54 mm so far ... that is 62% of the 1961-90 normal that they use, more like 55% of the larger normals in more recent periods that we use. Seems broadly similar to what Pit and Vizzy2004 have reported from their sites. And it's roughly normal for the first two weeks of October, or slightly above. 

Link to site: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/charts/hadukp_daily_plots.html

 

Roger..

 I have recorded 58.3mms to so far this month. (slap in the middle of England)

I think it is places further West (particularly in Wales and the South West) which may just possibly increase these values for the aveages.

Some areas of Wales recorded as much as 250mms over the weekend with the River Severn rising quickly, though to match that areas to the East had much lesser amounts.

MIA

 

[Summer Sun]

13.0 to the 15th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average
1.2 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

13.0 to the 15th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average
1.2 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

With daily CETs likely to meander between 10C and 13C in the next 8 days, the downwards drop is going to be a slow one, with the CET possibly still above 12C as we go into the final week of October. If proposed end-of-month ridging to the west collapses SEwards, I wonder if we will be looking at another top ten CET month.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

13.0C to the 16th... +1.4 (13.6: +3.3)
13.0C to the 17th... +1.5 (13.0: +3.0)
12.9C to the 18th... +1.4 (10.1: +0.0)
12.7C to the 19th... +1.3 (10.3: +0.3)
12.7C to the 20th... +1.3 (11.4: +1.6)
12.7C to the 21st... +1.4 (12.9: +3.3)
12.5C to the 22nd... +1.3 (8.8: -1.1)
12.4C to the 23rd... +1.2 (9.4: -0.2)
12.3C to the 24th... +1.2 (9.8: +0.4)
12.2C to the 25th... +1.2 (9.4: +0.0)

The GFS suggests a gradual drop in the CET, accelerating as we enter the last 10 days. No exceptional values on the horizon.

   

Edited October 16, 2018 by BornFromTheVoid

[Roger J Smith]

9 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Roger..

 I have recorded 58.3mms to so far this month. (slap in the middle of England)

I think it is places further West (particularly in Wales and the South West) which may just possibly increase these values for the aveages.

Some areas of Wales recorded as much as 250mms over the weekend with the River Severn rising quickly, though to match that areas to the East had much lesser amounts.

MIA

 

You are right, I had a look at all the regional trackers and amounts are generally highest in the west and northwest but all regions are running fairly similar in terms of percentage of normal, and for that matter so is Ireland where I track stats for a different contest (using eleven stations around the country, 1-14 October averaged 105% of normal). 

Irrelevant aside -- I was born not far from where you live, at Selly Oak hospital and I lived in Northfield (s.w. B'ham for the other readers) for the first almost eight years of my life, then the parentals decided to emigrate to Canada. But have been back several times, most recently in 2007. My visits are now banned by the UK Tourist Board as they took place in 1965, 1972, 1988 and 2007. Not a good analogue set. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 12.2C bang on average. Rainfall 51.3mm 62% of the monthly average