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October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


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Looking at the queries above - Every point deduction in the overall comp is pretty much the final points deduction after adjustments, this is by accident rather than by design. However this remains a

Confirmed as 10.6C: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat 0.1C below the 1981-2010 average and the coolest October since 2012.

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 12.4C to the 22nd... +1.2 (9.3: -0.6) 12.3C to the 23rd... +1.2 (

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16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Any chance of a 19C or 20C CET day? Many stations had a minima of 18C or more, quite widely. 

Nope. The minimum for today was recorded between 9am yesterday and 9am today. 9am yesterday was around high 14s or so for the CET area, so that will likely be the minimum for today.
It's still almost certain to be a record breaker, but I suspect something closer to high 17s or 18C as an average.

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34 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Nope. The minimum for today was recorded between 9am yesterday and 9am today. 9am yesterday was around high 14s or so for the CET area, so that will likely be the minimum for today.
It's still almost certain to be a record breaker, but I suspect something closer to high 17s or 18C as an average.

ah, didn't know that, thank you!

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12.5c here to the 13th, 1.5c above the 1981-2010 average.

Looks like its now peaked at its highest, but not sure we can get down to average by month end.

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13.4 to the 13th

1.6 above the 61 to 90 average
1.5 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

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At 18.1C, yesterday is provisionally the latest date to achieve a daily mean CET of 18C or higher.

The previous record was 19.0C on the 6th of October, recorded in 1921. That year had a remarkable late season warm spell, averaging 17.5C in the 8 days from the 4th to 11th (17.1C, 17.7C, 19.0C, 16.9C, 17.1C, 17.0C, 17.8C, 17.4C)
.

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5 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

At 18.1C, yesterday is provisionally the latest date to achieve a daily mean CET of 18C or higher.

The previous record was 19.0C on the 6th of October, recorded in 1921. That year had a remarkable late season warm spell, averaging 17.5C in the 8 days from the 4th to 11th (17.1C, 17.7C, 19.0C, 16.9C, 17.1C, 17.0C, 17.8C, 17.4C)
.

Amazing to get an 18C+ day in mid October. Another October event that will live long in my memory.

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13.3 to the 14th

1.6 above the 61 to 90 average
1.5 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

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Half way stage of the month, and we are at a peak - not often we see values rising through October, however, with 2 weeks to go, it will be a gradual climb down from here on in I believe. Nothing overly chilly in the immediate, indeed temps a little above average still in the CET zone, some cool nights will cancel out the continued very mild maxima.

Next week looks generally cool overall, average at best, but trending colder by the end of the month - if today's models verify.

A finish in the 11s most likely, so another above average month but not especially so.

 

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I mentioned last month that we would see some updates on EWP at strategic times (like after it has rained a lot). 

So after 14 days, the EWP tracker (kindly supplied by weather-history, link at bottom of this post) reports 54 mm so far ... that is 62% of the 1961-90 normal that they use, more like 55% of the larger normals in more recent periods that we use. Seems broadly similar to what Pit and Vizzy2004 have reported from their sites. And it's roughly normal for the first two weeks of October, or slightly above. 

Link to site: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/charts/hadukp_daily_plots.html

 

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3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I mentioned last month that we would see some updates on EWP at strategic times (like after it has rained a lot). 

So after 14 days, the EWP tracker (kindly supplied by weather-history, link at bottom of this post) reports 54 mm so far ... that is 62% of the 1961-90 normal that they use, more like 55% of the larger normals in more recent periods that we use. Seems broadly similar to what Pit and Vizzy2004 have reported from their sites. And it's roughly normal for the first two weeks of October, or slightly above. 

Link to site: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/charts/hadukp_daily_plots.html

 

Roger..

 I have recorded 58.3mms to so far this month. (slap in the middle of England)

I think it is places further West (particularly in Wales and the South West) which may just possibly increase these values for the aveages.

Some areas of Wales recorded as much as 250mms over the weekend with the River Severn rising quickly, though to match that areas to the East had much lesser amounts.

MIA

 

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13.0 to the 15th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average
1.2 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

13.0 to the 15th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average
1.2 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

With daily CETs likely to meander between 10C and 13C in the next 8 days, the downwards drop is going to be a slow one, with the CET possibly still above 12C as we go into the final week of October. If proposed end-of-month ridging to the west collapses SEwards, I wonder if we will be looking at another top ten CET month.

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

13.0C to the 16th... +1.4 (13.6: +3.3)
13.0C to the 17th... +1.5 (13.0: +3.0)
12.9C to the 18th... +1.4 (10.1: +0.0)
12.7C to the 19th... +1.3 (10.3: +0.3)
12.7C to the 20th... +1.3 (11.4: +1.6)
12.7C to the 21st... +1.4 (12.9: +3.3)
12.5C to the 22nd... +1.3 (8.8: -1.1)
12.4C to the 23rd... +1.2 (9.4: -0.2)
12.3C to the 24th... +1.2 (9.8: +0.4)
12.2C to the 25th... +1.2 (9.4: +0.0)

The GFS suggests a gradual drop in the CET, accelerating as we enter the last 10 days. No exceptional values on the horizon.

Oct15.thumb.JPG.d2da9cdcec67792895b4d6b05ba73f4d.JPG   Oct15MM.thumb.JPG.8f3f4ea2b9a64523a30867fa2c03b330.JPG

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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9 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Roger..

 I have recorded 58.3mms to so far this month. (slap in the middle of England)

I think it is places further West (particularly in Wales and the South West) which may just possibly increase these values for the aveages.

Some areas of Wales recorded as much as 250mms over the weekend with the River Severn rising quickly, though to match that areas to the East had much lesser amounts.

MIA

 

You are right, I had a look at all the regional trackers and amounts are generally highest in the west and northwest but all regions are running fairly similar in terms of percentage of normal, and for that matter so is Ireland where I track stats for a different contest (using eleven stations around the country, 1-14 October averaged 105% of normal). 

Irrelevant aside -- I was born not far from where you live, at Selly Oak hospital and I lived in Northfield (s.w. B'ham for the other readers) for the first almost eight years of my life, then the parentals decided to emigrate to Canada. But have been back several times, most recently in 2007. My visits are now banned by the UK Tourist Board as they took place in 1965, 1972, 1988 and 2007. Not a good analogue set. 

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