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Roger J Smith

October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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On 30/09/2018 at 15:50, Weather-history said:

That prediction of first half of October being warmest on record looks a bust before the month has even started.

First half of October 1921 had a CET of 15.4C 

You're not wrong there. That was incredible in Oct 1921.  The 8C isotherm was over England for most of the period!  The middle period of Oct 2018 is looking very mild though.  Some daily records could come under threat.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=9&day=16&year=1921&map=3&hour=0&type=ncep

 

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see

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1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

We could do with getting some record cold days for a change 👍

If we carry on getting continental blocked weather patterns, it is only a matter of time that it will get colder. Give to a couple of months and I predict a cold December if the pattern we have seen through much of 2018 continues.

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

11.4C to the 2nd... -1.2 (13.0: +0.7)
12.0C to the 3rd... -0.4 (13.3: +1.2)
12.8C to the 4th... +0.5 (15.1: +3.2)
13.1C to the 5th... +1.0 (14.4: +2.8)
12.4C to the 6th... +0.3 (8.7: -3.2)
12.0C to the 7th... -0.1 (9.4: -2.3)
11.8C to the 8th... -0.3 (10.5: -1.3)
11.9C to the 9th... -0.2 (12.5: +0.6)
11.9C to the 10th... -0.1 (12.7: +0.5)
12.3C to the 11th... +0.3 (15.9: +4.2)

After a topsy turvy few days, it looks like the CET will settle out close to the 81-10 rolling average.

Oct1.thumb.JPG.12acc33af597e241f159a2521992f4fc.JPG   Oct1MM.thumb.JPG.b1979bddc15012fd740ed10861b2d50c.JPG

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Think a very mild month 13.0C thanks. Sorry for being late.

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Baring a really intense area of high pressure with no cloud or a screaming North Easterly at the end of the month, ive already bust.

 

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11.4 to the 2nd

0.8 below the 61 to 90 average
1.2 below the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 11.4 to the 2nd

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Here's the full list of entries in the CET and EWP contests, the consensus forecasts are 10.5 C and 84 mm (a little below recent October averages in both cases, we'll see how that pans out soon enough.)

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=10

Posting this a few hours before the absolute deadline, anyone who happens to enter after this will get a footnote if I can't edit the tables. 

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12.3 to the 3rd

0.1 above the 61 to 90 average
0.1 below the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 12.3 to the 3rd

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11.6c here to the 3rd, 0.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

13.1C to the 4th... +0.8 (15.5: +3.6)
13.3C to the 5th... +1.1 (14.2 +2.6)
12.7C to the 6th... +0.6 (9.9: -2.0)
12.1C to the 7th... +0.1 (8.5: -3.2)
11.9C to the 8th... -0.1 (10.5: -1.3)
12.1C to the 9th... +0.1 (13.2: 1.3)
12.4C to the 10th... +0.3 (15.0: +2.8)
12.7C to the 11th... +0.7 (15.7: +4.0)
12.7C to the 12th... +0.7 (13.3: +1.7)
13.1C to the 13th... +1.2 (17.7: +6.4)

Very mild, to cool, to warm is the forecast for the next 10 days. Today has a chance of breaking into the 10 warmest for the date (15.6C average required). The end of the high res run throws in some exceptional weather with plenty of record breaking potential. That 17.7C on the 13th, were it to happen, would be the latest date a daily CET of 17.5C or higher has been recorded.

Sep3.thumb.JPG.dccf1603606528d733226a53e2f85695.JPG   Sep3MM.thumb.JPG.5a32a9eb053c4fa2a6b568f567ac47d0.JPG

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13.1 to the 4th

0.9 above the 61 to 90 average
0.8 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.1 to the 4th

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On 04/10/2018 at 16:24, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

13.1C to the 4th... +0.8 (15.5: +3.6)
13.3C to the 5th... +1.1 (14.2 +2.6)
12.7C to the 6th... +0.6 (9.9: -2.0)
12.1C to the 7th... +0.1 (8.5: -3.2)
11.9C to the 8th... -0.1 (10.5: -1.3)
12.1C to the 9th... +0.1 (13.2: 1.3)
12.4C to the 10th... +0.3 (15.0: +2.8)
12.7C to the 11th... +0.7 (15.7: +4.0)
12.7C to the 12th... +0.7 (13.3: +1.7)
13.1C to the 13th... +1.2 (17.7: +6.4)

Very mild, to cool, to warm is the forecast for the next 10 days. Today has a chance of breaking into the 10 warmest for the date (15.6C average required). The end of the high res run throws in some exceptional weather with plenty of record breaking potential. That 17.7C on the 13th, were it to happen, would be the latest date a daily CET of 17.5C or higher has been recorded.

Sep3.thumb.JPG.dccf1603606528d733226a53e2f85695.JPG   Sep3MM.thumb.JPG.5a32a9eb053c4fa2a6b568f567ac47d0.JPG

I've long been thinking somewhere in the 11Cs will be safe landing ground for this month's s CET, but with the current set of warm charts I'm now wondering if we may break 12C?

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Sunny Sheffield at 12.2C -1.3C below normal, Rainfall 17.6mm 21.3% of normal. After Sunday there should be a slow but steady rise in average temp unless we get some expected cold nights which aren't really on the menu after tonight.

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13.4 to the 5th

1.1 above the 61 to 90 average
1.2 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th

Edited by Summer Sun

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1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield at 12.2C -1.3C below normal, Rainfall 17.6mm 21.3% of normal. After Sunday there should be a slow but steady rise in average temp unless we get some expected cold nights which aren't really on the menu after tonight.

Current modelling has us drawing in too much tropical air however if the high in a week or so has more of an easterly tilt (modelling has edged in that direction) then we could draw in some cooler theta values and see cooler minima/a potential inversion. 

GFSOPEU06_192_7.png

Still a tad early for that though. Inversions are prominent come November. 

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11.9c here to the 5th, 0.6c above the 1981-2010 average.

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The 12z GFS appears to be heading to record high territory with some hints of a cooler regime at end of the run (which is 22nd) but values as high as 14 could be reached by 17th-20th in the rolling CET with this nearly constant subtropical feed setting up. A number of daily records look to be under threat also, after we set two new ones last year on 14th and 16th, maybe we'll add the 15th this time around. 

Here's an odd fact also, the warmest October (2001 at 13.3) failed to set any daily records, although 14.0 on 30th would have tied on the 29th. 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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On 01/10/2018 at 17:50, Roger J Smith said:

1981-2010 CET averages, cumulative and 1772 - 2017 record values

________________________________________________________________

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ MAX ________ MIN 

01 _                                                        ___ 6.1 (1808&1888)
05 __                                                      ___ 4.6 (1888)
06 _                                                          __ 4.1 (1888)
27 __                               _ 16.7 (1888) _
28 __                               _ 15.6 (1888) _

 

October 1888, now that was a very strange month

1-7th October: 5.0C   25th-31st October: 12.4C


CET trackometer

1. 6.1
2. 5.1
3. 5.2
4. 5.3
5. 5.2
6. 5.0
7. 5.0
8. 5.2
9. 5.5
10. 5.7
11. 6.0
12. 6.3 
13. 6.4
14. 6.4
15. 6.4
16. 6.4
17. 6.5
18. 6.7
19. 6.8
20. 6.7
21. 6.7
22. 6.6
23. 6.6
24. 6.6
25. 6.7
26. 7.0
27. 7.4
28. 7.7
29. 7.8
30. 7.9
31. 7.9

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Sunny Sheffield down to 11.7C -1.5C below normal. Rainfall 19.2mm 23.2% of normal.

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12.7 to the 6th

0.4 above the 61 to 90 average
0.6 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th

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