Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


Roger J Smith
 Share

Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    20 hours ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

    13C. The first half of October is heading into warmest on record territory..

    That prediction of first half of October being warmest on record looks a bust before the month has even started.

    First half of October 1921 had a CET of 15.4C 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    11.5c and 76mm ta

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

    10.4c and 55mm please

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    10.1*C and 84 mm, thanks.

    Yep - extremely boring - but I'm staying 'serious' and hoping that the scientific approach can recover at least a little after the tragic 'no-Nino' situation of Aug-Sep which threw the estimates wide(r) of the mark ??.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Manchester 35m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: South Manchester 35m asl

    10.8c and 92mm please

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    Actually I’ll bump up to 10.4C please, still 117mm

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    CET forecasts .. number in brackets shows the order of entry (only the last one counts in that regard)

    15.5 LG (10) .. 13.0 Blu (37)

    12.5 syed (40) .. 12.4 TJM14 (13) ..12.1 RJS (31), KMan (43)

    11.6 dav (55) .. 11.5 PG (7), viz (46), MWB (56)

    11.3 vir (21), SF (42) .. 11.2 sray (41), Mul (53) .. 11.1 reef (52) .. 11.0 avg 1988-2017 and J10 (57)

    10.9 BFTP (26) ..10.8 EdS (11), MBay (30), DK3 (54)

    10.7 avg 1981-2010 and SB (1), SS (34), metal (50) .. 10.6 MIA (17), Rel (22) .. 10.5 Dr(S) (25), Dww (29), Pit (36)

    10.4 w26 (4), Doc (49), CPS (58) and consensus .. ... 10.3 BFTV (45) ..

    10.2 RD (8), Jeff (27), dlaw (39), w-h (44) .. 10.1 IRA252 (2), PSL (24), Don (48), sing (51)

    10.0 Bob (9), Leo (5), Owl (20), Feb91 (32)

     9.9 nn2013 (14), star (33), Nor (35) .. 9.8 Kirk (15), Ste (6)

     9.7 Peg (16) .. 9.6 Godb (18) .. 9.5 sdog (23), Dun (47)

     9.4 LIS (28) .. 9.3 SDr (38) .. 9.1 Sum95 (19)

     8.9 Dami (12) .. 7.7 DRL (3)

    58 forecasts (on time), consensus is 10.4 C.

    ===================================================================

     

    EWP forecasts (mm)

     

    200 LG .. 121.3 PG .. 117 CPS .. 115 BFTV .. 111 SDr .. 110 Bob

    105 Jeff .. (100.8 mm _ avg 1981-2010 )

     99 EdS, Rel, Nor, J10 ..  (96.6 mm _ avg 1988-2017) .. 95 dav ... 92 DK3 ... 90 nn2013

     88 w26 .. 87 SF .. 86 vir ... 85 Dr(S), syed, Reef .. 84 sing (consensus) ... 80 Leo, BFTP

     78 Sum95 .. 76 viz .. 75 MIA .. 70 Peg, Feb91, Pit, Mul

     69.6 Kirk .. 68 TJM14, Don .. 65 w-h .. 64 Ste .. 63 RD

     55 Dami, Godb, RJS, Doc .. 53 Star .. 

    ____________________________

    41 on time (extends to 0300h) .. consensus 84 mm. 

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

    10c and 100mm

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

    Dam late again.

    Can I have 11.1c please.

    89mm on the old rainfall guess.

    Difficult to call really, I think the hots versus the colds will even out ish over the month, will it go lower than average in October.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York

    late sorry so 9.9 and 65

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    1981-2010 CET averages, cumulative and 1772 - 2017 record values

    ________________________________________________________________

     

    Date __ CET __ cum ____ MAX ________ MIN 

    01 ___ 12.9 ___ 12.9 ___ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808&1888)
    02 ___ 12.3 ___ 12.6 ___ 17.9 (2011) ___ 3.6 (1817)
    03 ___ 12.1 ___ 12.4 ___ 19.8 (2011) ___ 4.7 (1817)
    04 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.3 ___ 17.7 (1959) ___ 5.1 (1912)
    05 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.2 ___ 17.9 (1886) ___ 4.6 (1888)

    06 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.1 ___19.0 (1921) ___ 4.1 (1888)
    07 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.1 ___16.9 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1829)
    08 ___ 11.8 ___ 12.0 ___17.7 (1995) ___ 4.1 (1829)
    09 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.0 ___17.5 (1995) ___ 3.3 (1852)
    10 ___ 12.5 ___ 12.0 ___17.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1814)

    11 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.0 ___ 17.6 (1978) ___ 3.9 (1860)
    12 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.0 ___ 16.5 (1978) ___ 3.2 (1887)
    13 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.9 ___ 16.8 (1990) ___ 2.2 (1838)
    14 ___ 10.9 ___ 11.8 ___ 17.2 (2017) ___ 3.1 (1838) __ max was 16.1 (1990)
    15 ___ 10.8 ___ 11.8 ___ 15.7 (1930) ___ 2.5 (1843)

    16 ___ 10.3 ___ 11.7 ___ 16.4 (2017) ___ 1.8 (1843) __ max was 15.8 (1818)
    17 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.6 ___ 15.6 (1897) ___ 2.5 (1824)
    18 ___ 10.1 ___ 11.5 ___ 16.7 (2014) ___ 2.4 (1843)
    19 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.4 ___ 16.3 (1921) ___ 1.5 (1813)
    20 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.3 ___ 14.9 (1795) ___ 2.1 (1842)

    21 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.3 ___ 15.2 (1998) ___ 1.2 (1842)
    22 ____ 9.9 ___ 11.2 ___ 16.2 (1906) ___ 2.5 (1931)
    23 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.4 (1998) ___ 0.9 (1859)
    24 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.3 (2009) ___ 0.6 (1859) __ 14.2 in 2017 close to max
    25 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.0 __ 14.0 (1978, 2013) _ 2.0 (1784) __ 13.9 in 2017 close to max

    26 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.7 (1927) ___ 1.5 (1785)
    27 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 16.7 (1888) ___ 1.4 (1869)
    28 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 15.6 (1888) ___ 0.9 (1895)
    29 ____ 8.9 ___ 10.8 __ 14.0 (1772,1984) _ 0.3 (1895)
    30 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.7 ___ 15.5 (2005) ___ 0.7 (1836)

    31 ____ 9.3 ___ 10.7 ___ 16.9 (2014) ___ 0.7 (1836)

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
     Share

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...