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October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


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Looking at the queries above - Every point deduction in the overall comp is pretty much the final points deduction after adjustments, this is by accident rather than by design. However this remains a

Confirmed as 10.6C: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat 0.1C below the 1981-2010 average and the coolest October since 2012.

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 12.4C to the 22nd... +1.2 (9.3: -0.6) 12.3C to the 23rd... +1.2 (

Posted Images

11.0 to the 30th

0.3 above the 61 to 90 average
0.3 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

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6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Seems to be a feature this year

February 21st: 3.8 ends 2.9

April 24th: 10.3  ends 9.8

August 22nd: 17.8C ends 16.6C

September 20th: 15.3C ends 13.8C

October 25th ~12.2C  might end sub 11.0C

Was thinking the same thing! Has made predicting the CET very difficult, as the ability to get a handle on events drops off markedly beyond D15-D20 IMO.

Mind you, I suspect June showed the opposite trend?

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8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Was thinking the same thing! Has made predicting the CET very difficult, as the ability to get a handle on events drops off markedly beyond D15-D20 IMO.

Mind you, I suspect June showed the opposite trend?

Yes that went from 15.4 on the 24th to 16.1

Incidentally September ended on 13.7 not 13.8

 

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5 hours ago, Stu_London said:

Must be unusual for the low point in October to occur on the 1st (9.8C)

Probably hasn't happened too much in the series.

 

I thought I would take a look, and here's the summary (for 246 cases, 1772 to 2017) ...

The lowest running CET occurs on these dates (in this count, any tied values to one decimal place are noted, so the total is well in excess of 246 because it is not unusual for 2-5 days to tie, especially towards end of months) ... I have lumped 2-5, 6-10, 11-15 and 16-20 together as they don't form a large number of cases. From 21 to 29 the cases are in three groups, 21-23 and 24-26 and 27-29, and for 30 and 31, individual dates. In many cases, 30 and 31 were tied so they both counted. 

DATE ___ count of MIN CET ___ most recent example(s)

_ 01 _____26 ______________ 10.6 2016 (tied on 25th) __ before that, 1990, 1988

_ 02-05 __ 37 _______________ 9.2 2008 (4th)

_ 06-10 __ 15 _______________ 9.6 1999 (6th)

_ 11-15 __ 10 _______________11.7 2014 (13th, 14th, 15th) 

_ 16-20 __ 11 _______________10.8 2009 (20th, 21st)

_ 21-23 ___ 7 _______________10.8 2009 (20th, 21st) __ before that 2004 (10.3, 19th-22nd)

_ 24-26 __ 13 _______________ 10.6 2016 (tied on 1st) __ before that 2015 (10.7, 26th)

_ 27-29 __ 31 _______________ 12.5 2011 (29th)

_ 30 _____ 41 _______________ 10.1 2002 (29th, 30th, 31st)

_ 31 _____117 _______________12.4 2017 (31st)

 

ANALYSIS: This count shows that there is almost a 50-50 chance that the October minimum running CET will be set on the last day (or at least maintained from earlier first appearances). Given the overlap of cases, there is about a 2/3 chance of it happening after the 26th. The middle third of the month is the least likely portion to record the running minimum. It seems somewhat counter-intuitive, but there's a better chance in the first few days than from the 6th to the 23rd, at least on a per capita date basis. The first, when it has recorded the minimum, was only tied on two occasions, 1860 (tied with 14th) and that other one noted in 2016, so you can add the 26 cases to the 37 from 2nd to 5th as 63 cases in the first five days.

The largest deficit of the minimum on any date compared to the outcome was 3.8 degrees (minimum 6.3 on 1st, outcome 10.1) in 1928, followed closely by 3.7 in 1969 (from 9.3 on 1st to 13.0 at end of month). 

In addition to 2016, the only months with two minima that were not either consecutive dates or within five if not consecutive dates, were 1860 and 2006:

1860 ___ 9.1 __ 1st and 14th and 17th

2006 __ 13.0 __ 5th and 31st 

The only other case with much separation was 1789 (8.3 on 6th, 9th). Consecutive strings could place dates as far apart as 24th and 31st. 

Finally, the lowest running minimum ever recorded in the daily portion of October CET (since 1772) was 5.0 C on 6th and 7th in 1888. It may have been lower in 1740 though (end of month 5.3). 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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MIA looks to be the only one who got it correct with 10.6 

On 22/09/2018 at 22:24, Midlands Ice Age said:

10.6C and 75mms please

MIA

On 19/09/2018 at 18:40, summer blizzard said:

Stick me at 10.7C, bang on the 30 year average.

Although i do not enter the precipitation forecast i expect an extremely wet month with 100mm+.

On 26/09/2018 at 12:53, Man With Beard said:

I'm thinking average at the moment, so let's go with 10.7C for now ...  I am thinking below average is possible too but in recent years it's been so hard to get a below average month outside of summer - I think the synoptics need to get a little more extreme to make that call.

On 28/09/2018 at 19:13, Summer Sun said:

10.7 for me

Thanks

On 30/09/2018 at 19:30, metaltron said:

10.7 please

4 others 0.1c out

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

MIA looks to be the only one who got it correct with 10.6 

4 others 0.1c out

I wish @Summer Sun! I changed my guess to 11.5C at the last second! If October had ended on 28th I wouldn't have done too badly! Still, will mean the CET race is quite open for the final month :)

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Here are the usual 2 graphs, but with the finalised data for October.

OctoberF.thumb.JPG.ded161055dff83443b03190c97a0ea54.JPG  OctoberFMM.thumb.JPG.48bfc67c6659afe5006a03616befcfb6.JPG

We had 3 days equal to or in the top 10 warmest for their respective dates, one of which was a daily record. The 18.5C on the 13th was quite a whopper, pushing the latest date an 18C+ day has ever been recorded in the CET series a week further into Autumn.
Overall, we had 16 days above, 14 days below and 1 day equal to average.

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Relativistic also had 10.6 C together with Midlands Ice Age (by order of entry, MIA is first and Relativistic is second). 

Six shared an error of 0.1, so it depends on order of entry as to who finishes third to eighth. 

J10 will confirm the actual results, this is how it appears in the table of entries:

 

10.7 __ 3rd -- Summer Blizzard (1), 6th -- Summer Sun (34), 8th -- metaltron (50) __  average 1981-2010

10.6 __ 1st -- Midlands Ice Age (17), 2nd -- Relativistic (22)

10.5 __ 4th -- Dr(S)No (25), 5th -- Dancerwithwings (29), 7th --The Pit (36)

I expect the EWP to finalize around 70 mm. These are the forecasts closest to 70 mm ...

 

76.0 __ vizzy2004

 75.0 __ Midlands Ice Age, DAVID SNOW (+1d late)

 70.0 __ Pegg24, Feb1991blizzard, The Pit, Mulzy

 69.6 __ Kirkcaldy Weather

 68.0 __ TJM14, Don

 65.0 __ weather-history, jonboy (+1d late)

 64.0 __ SteveB

 63.0 __ Radiating Dendrite

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_ Report on the Three Robotic Forecasters for October 2018 _

 

The two normals and consensus all went on a robotic rampage in October, perhaps it had something to do with the 31st, perhaps not.

Anyway, they kicked much human forecaster butt, if yours is not sore, you did good (work).  

 

___ Past months ____

____________DEC _________________________ JAN ________________________ FEB

"Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range)

1987-2016*__ +0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 (88-17)>--0.6 __66.7 - 74.1 _ 15 to 19 ______ +1.9 _ 31.2 - 35.1 _ 51 to 54

1981-2010 __ --0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 ______ --0.9 __ 50.0 - 55.6 _ 25 to 28 ______ +1.5 _ 48.1 - 49.4 _ 40 to 41

Consensus __--0.6 __ 71.0 - 74.9 __20 to 23 _____--0.9 __ 50.0 -55.6 _ 25 to 28 _______+1.1 _ 57.1 - 58.4 _ 33 to 34

* becomes 1988-2017 from JAN onward.

____________ MAR ___________________________________ APR _____________________ MAY ____________ 

"Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range)

1988-2017 __ +1.9 __ 20.8 - 22.1 __ 60 to 61 ____ --1.1 __ 72.2--72,2 __ 18 to 18 _____ --1.3 _ 28.6 - 33.3 _ 43 to 46

1981-2010 __ +1.7 __ 26.1 - 26.1 __ 57 to 57 ____ --1.3 __ 57.4--65.6 __ 22 to 27 _____ --1.5 _ 19.1 - 20.5 _ 51 to 52

Consensus __--0.3 __ 78.9 - 85.5 __12 to 17 ____ --1.4 __ 50.8--55.8 __ 28 to 31 ______ --1.0 _ 46.1 - 54.0 _ 30 to 35

 

______________JUN ________________________JUL ___________________________ AUG _____________

"Forecaster" _ Error_ Points (range)_rank (range) __Error _ points (range) _ rank (range) __Error _ points (range) _ rank (range)

 

1988-2017 __ --1.5 __ 12.0 - 12.0 __ 57 to 57 ____ --2.4 __ 03.1 - 03.1 __ 63 to 63 ____ --0.1 ___ 95.3 - 98.4 __ 02 to 04

1981-2010 __ --1.6 __ 04.1 - 10.4 __ 58 to 62 ____ --2.4 __ 03.1 - 03.1 __ 63 to 63 ____ --0.2 ___ 93.7 - 93.7 __ 05 to 05

Consensus __--0.3 __ 74.9 - 82.7 __ 12 to 17 ____ --0.9 __ 51.6 - 53.2 __ 31 to 32 ____ +1.3 ___ 53.0 - 55.2 __ 29 to 31

 

 

______________SEP ________________________OCT ___________________________ NOV _____________

"Forecaster" _ Error_ Points (range)_rank (range) __Error _ points (range) _ rank (range) __Error _ points (range) _ rank (range)

 

1988-2017 __ +0.4 __ 83.3 - 83.3 __ 11 to 11 ____ see below ____

1981-2010 __ +0.3 __ 85.0 - 88.3 __ 08 to 10 ____ see below ____

Consensus __+1.2 __ 43.3 - 51.7 __ 30 to 35 ____ see below ____ 

 

________ Current Month __ Oct 2018 ________________ Contest year averages to date (11 mo)___

"Forecaster" _Oct Error_Oct Points (range)_rank (range) // mean abs error_mean points_mean rank

1988-2017 ___ +0.4*_____ 67.4 - 73.9 ____ 18 to 22 ________ 1.07*_____ 50.6 - 54.4 __ 31 to 33 

1981-2010 ___ +0.1*_____ 89.2 - 96.9 ____ 03 to 08 ________ 1.06*_____ 51.5 - 54.7 __ 28 to 31

Consensus ___--0.1*_____ 89.2 - 96.9 ____ 03 to 08 ________ 0.83*_____ 57.7 - 64.0 __ 24 to 28 

* C deg for errors ... points based on scoring system but my calculations from number of entries ... the robots are compared with all human forecasters who had the same absolute errors, hence the spread of ranks in most cases (for example in September, six human forecasts tied with both 1981-2010 (10.7) and consensus (10.5) for an error of 0.1, two beat that, so their ranks were between 3rd and 8th. 9th to 17th then did better than the five who tied at 11.0, and 10.2, matching the 0.4 error of 1988-2017 (four of those five said 10.2, but same absolute error).

-- robotic forecasters are only compared directly with temperature error, late penalties and other types of scoring are not factored into this.

for comparison with EWP, see tables in competition scoring thread ... generally speaking these robots are doing better at precip than temp.

____________________________________________________________________________________

For the last month of the contest year, November, consensus will probably be about 0.5 below the recent normals, so we'll see how that works out.

But consensus cannot be overtaken by the two normals now, not enough spread to make up the differentials after eleven months.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Monthly Figures - Summary and Top 10

Two players got it spot on this month, Midlands Ice Age and Relativistic. While 6 others were 0.1c out.

image.thumb.png.dc8f5390429f496128589af393cf3e6a.png

Seasonal Figures - Summary and Top 10

A complete change around at the top, with a brand new top 3. 1st Weather26, 2nd Midlands Ice Age 3rd summer blizzard

image.thumb.png.197a4b3b28329f8f0fd788691e2f4224.png

Overall Figures - Summary and Top 10

For a 2nd month in a row no change in the Top 3.

1st Man with Beard with a seemingly unassailable lead.
2nd Don
3rd Norrance

Elsewhere in the Top 10 The PIT up 7 places to 6th and summer blizzard up 6 places to 8th.

image.thumb.png.9f66e451c53e00563bc90afb56c75f31.png

Spreadsheet Oct 2018 CET.xlsx

Edited by J10
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Basically average month here temperature wise coming in at 10.3C which is +0.1C degree above normal. Rainfall well below average with 53.9mm 65.1% of normal. So overall we are close to average temperature wise for Autumn and just above average rainfall.

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