October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

[The PIT]

20 hours ago, reef said:

Its certainly turning into an extended dry period now. The last 6 months (26th April - 25th October) has had only 211.0mm of rain here - just 63% of normal. Only 33 (out of 183) days in that period have seen >1.0mm of rainfall.

Had 1.3mm overnight so that's nine days. Weekend looks dry and only light rain forecast on a few days next week. Take away the none event of the 70mm rainfall which fell mostly in one afternoon last month it would be a very dry Autumn.

[NorthYorksWeather]

11.2c here to the 25th, 1.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

[summer blizzard]

Roger, if we are less selective about our period i was wondering what the CET for the final third will be and also how many years in the last century have seen similar values.

[Summer Sun]

12.0 to the 26th

1.1 above the 61 to 90 average
1.1 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

[Weather26]

17 hours ago, The PIT said:

Had 1.3mm overnight so that's nine days. Weekend looks dry and only light rain forecast on a few days next week. Take away the none event of the 70mm rainfall which fell mostly in one afternoon last month it would be a very dry Autumn.

But it's thanks to this and another rain event On October 14th of 18.3mm that we seem to be close to beating last Autumn's rain total 157.3mm with still November to go.

Edited October 27, 2018 by Weather26

[J10]

Locally 56mm of rainfall here this month, with 9 days of >=1mm, of this 40mm fell in the very wet weekend 2 weeks ago.

Locally 153mm of rainfall here this autumn, with 22 days of >=1mm, of this 63mm fell 20th-22th Sept and 40mm fell 11th-13th October.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 11.5C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[NorthYorksWeather]

11.0c here to the 26th, 1.0c above the 1981-2010 average.

45.2mm so far this month.

[Roger J Smith]

6 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Roger, if we are less selective about our period i was wondering what the CET for the final third will be and also how many years in the last century have seen similar values.

Okay, I ran the numbers for 21-31 October, this year seems likely to average about 7 but that is nowhere near coldest recently, in fact fifteen of the past one hundred years were at or below 7.0 for the interval, the coldest (by a large margin) was 1926 at 3.8, then 1931 was 4.0 and 1922 was 5.0, next coldest and coldest that many reading this may recall was 2003 at 5.8, closely followed by both 1992 and 1997 at 5.9 each. The rest of the list since 1918 includes 1939 (5.9), 1950 (6.3), 1919 (6.6), 1942 and 1955 (6.7), 1966 and 1983 (6.9), 1951 and 2008 (7.0).

Before 1918, 32 out of the 146 years (1772 to 1917) had a value of 7.0 or lower and the four lowest were 1895 (2.8), 1896 (3.7), 1859 (4.0) and 1819 at 4.1.

So the frequency was about 22% in the first 146 years, 15% in the past hundred and a similar 14% of the past 35 (1983, 1992, 1997, 2003 and 2008). 

Looking at values before very cold winters, I find 10.9 in 1779, 8.7 in 1783, 6.5 in 1784, 9.4 in 1788, 7.6 in 1794, 9.3 in 1798, 8.2 in 1802, 6.1 in 1813, 4.0 in 1819, 10.5 in 1822, 6.7 in 1829, 8.5 in 1837, 6.4 in 1840, 6.8 in 1844, 6.9 in 1845, 8.2 in 1854, 7.1 in 1878, 4.4 in 1880, 7.6 in 1890, 8.3 in 1894, 7.7 in 1916, 9.5 in 1928, 5.9 in 1939, 7.2 in 1946, 8.2 in 1962, 11.9 in 1978, 8.0 in 1985, 9.4 in 1986, 9.5 in 1990, and 12.9 in 2009, 8.9 in 2010. (this list is somewhat selective but I checked to make sure at least coldest 20 were present).

The past five were all above 10, the last sub-10 being 8.7 in 2012. 

 

[summer blizzard]

Impressive 2003 figure and 2008.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 11.2 +0.4C above normal. Rainfall 53mm 64% of the monthly average.

Playing with the local forecast average predicts a 10.5C finish and slightly above average and very dry with little in the way of rain to come before the months end. GFS comes up with the same value. Time will tell.

 

Edited October 28, 2018 by The PIT

[NorthYorksWeather]

23 hours ago, J10 said:

Locally 56mm of rainfall here this month, with 9 days of >=1mm, of this 40mm fell in the very wet weekend 2 weeks ago.

Locally 153mm of rainfall here this autumn, with 22 days of >=1mm, of this 63mm fell 20th-22th Sept and 40mm fell 11th-13th October.

Where are you?

10.7c here to the 27th, 0.7c above the 1981-2010 average.

[Summer Sun]

11.7 to the 27th

0.8 above the 61 to 90 average
0.8 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

[J10]

22 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Where are you?

10.7c here to the 27th, 0.7c above the 1981-2010 average.

The stats are from Mumbles Weather Centre, Swansea

[Weather-history]

Keep seeing media claims this has been the warmest October for 7 years before the cold snap but I'm pretty sure this isn't correct at least for the CET, it certainly won't be now the warmest October for 7 years,

[Snowyowl9]

Media are useless at facts.

 

[Summer Sun]

11.5 to the 28th

0.7 above the 61 to 90 average
0.6 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

[cheeky_monkey]

Cloudy Edmonton is at 2.9c which is -2.1c below normal..which is surprising as the second half of October has been very mild.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 11C +0.3C above normal. Rainfall at 53mm still 64% of the monthly average. Good chance of ending on average now after last nights dip in temperatures which knocked a big chunk of the min temperature.

Edited October 29, 2018 by The PIT

[NorthYorksWeather]

10.5c here to the 28th, 0.5c above the 1981-2010 average.

Another big jump down tomorrow after today's mean of 3.8c.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Seems very likely to finish on 10.9C before corrections, so anything from 10.4C to 11.0C is possible as a final figure. Bang on average (10.7C) is probably the best bet.

[Summer Sun]

11.2 to the 29th

0.5 above the 61 to 90 average
0.4 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

[BornFromTheVoid]

Today's minimum was significantly lower than expected, which has pushed the likely finish to 10.8C before corrections are applied (10.83 by my calcs).

Interestingly, despite the notably cool weather currently, we still haven't seen any days get into the bottom 10 coolest for their respective dates. The closest was yesterday at 3.5C, which was still 0.4C away from the 10 coldest for the date.
On the other hand, the warm spell early in the month saw 3 days in the top 10 warmest (another 2 just 0.1C away), one of which is a daily record (all provisional so far, of course).

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield having a plunge down to 10.6C bank on average and looks like we will end up bang on average unless tonight is very cold but forecast figures for us on the beeb forecast look unlikely. I reckon a low of about 4C here. The rainfall is at 53.9mm 65.1% of the monthly average.

[NorthYorksWeather]

10.2c here to the 29th, 0.3c above the 1981-2010 average.