October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

[Summer Sun]

13.0 to the 16th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average
1.3 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

[NorthYorksWeather]

12.1c here to the 16th, 1.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 12.1C bang on average. Rainfall unchanged. A small downward trend next week but not much of one. Outlook doesn't suggest anything cold or very mild so I reckon we will just end up slightly above normal.

[Summer Sun]

13.0 to the 17th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average
1.4 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

12.7C to the 18th... +1.2 (9.4: -0.7)
12.6C to the 19th... +1.2 (9.6: -0.4)
12.5C to the 20th... +1.2 (11.4: +1.6)
12.5C to the 21st... +1.3 (13.0: +3.4)
12.4C to the 22nd... +1.2 (8.3: -1.6)
12.3C to the 23rd... +1.1 (10.3: +0.7)
12.2C to the 24th... +1.2 (11.6: +2.2)
12.1C to the 25th... +1.1 (9.3: -0.1)
12.0C to the 26th... +1.0 (8.2: -1.4)
11.8C to the 27th... +0.9 (6.1: -3.7)

A slow and steady fall in the CET likely over the next 10 days with temperatures generally close to the seasonal average.

   

[NorthYorksWeather]

11.9c here to the 17th, 1.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 12.1C +0.1C above normal rainfall unchanged

[summer blizzard]

Possibly we might just reach 11.2C after corrections, that would mean three months in a row within 0.5C of average.

[Summer Sun]

12.8 to the 18th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average
1.3 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

[NorthYorksWeather]

11.7c here to the 18th, 1.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

To get to average or below we need this mornings ECM run to happen.

[Man With Beard]

14 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Possibly we might just reach 11.2C after corrections, that would mean three months in a row within 0.5C of average.

I'm thinking sub 11 might just be possible if a cold snap can hang around until the end of the month. But the odds still favour a low 11s finish, I guess. 

[DAVID SNOW]

On ‎07‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 20:38, DAVID SNOW said:

The longer outlook is cooler, sub 11c me thinks.

Not so unlikely now then MWB...

[Relativistic]

On 16/10/2018 at 17:53, Roger J Smith said:

Irrelevant aside -- I was born not far from where you live, at Selly Oak hospital and I lived in Northfield (s.w. B'ham for the other readers) for the first almost eight years of my life, then the parentals decided to emigrate to Canada. But have been back several times, most recently in 2007. My visits are now banned by the UK Tourist Board as they took place in 1965, 1972, 1988 and 2007. Not a good analogue set. 

Interesting, I lived in Selly Oak 2015-2018 and didn't even know it had its own hospital! The enormous QE next to the university seems to be the centre for most things now.

[Relativistic]

On 14/10/2018 at 15:48, BornFromTheVoid said:

At 18.1C, yesterday is provisionally the latest date to achieve a daily mean CET of 18C or higher.

The previous record was 19.0C on the 6th of October, recorded in 1921. That year had a remarkable late season warm spell, averaging 17.5C in the 8 days from the 4th to 11th (17.1C, 17.7C, 19.0C, 16.9C, 17.1C, 17.0C, 17.8C, 17.4C)
.

Would quite like a downward correction on this one just so that the latest 18C day can still also be the latest 19C day!

[Midlands Ice Age]

15 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Interesting, I lived in Selly Oak 2015-2018 and didn't even know it had its own hospital! The enormous QE next to the university seems to be the centre for most things now.

Relativistic..

'Selly Oak'  was an old 'Victoriian?' style hospital.

Most of the departments left over the last few years were specialist ones.

It has all been moved (over the last10 years), into the huge QE.

It is most well known as it was the hospital that operated and looked after all .returning Afghan and other injured war heroes.  

My wife has been treated there for many years as it was also an excellence centre for heart related issues. 

MIA

Edited October 20, 2018 by Midlands Ice Age

[Summer Sun]

12.6 to the 19th

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average
1.2 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 11.7C bang on average and rainfall unchanged once again.

[NorthYorksWeather]

11.5c here to the 19th, 1.0c above the 1981-2010 average.

Rainfall: 32.8mm

[Man With Beard]

8 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Not so unlikely now then MWB...

Someone snap this guy up, genius forecaster

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 11.7C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 51.3mm 62% of average.

[Summer Sun]

12.6 to the 20th

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average
1.3 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

[NorthYorksWeather]

11.6c here to the 20th, 1.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

[Roger J Smith]

Current GFS suggests an outcome not far from 10.7 C and the EWP would add a few more small amounts to finish around 65-70 mm although heavier rain is due to arrive on 1st of November so if that were to speed up, add however much that event could bring. 

For the CET, I foresee the average falling slowly at first to mid-11s by Thursday 25th then faster with some days not much higher than 5 or 6. 

The math is fairly simple, if we are at 11 degrees at some point around 26th then each day that averaged 5 to 6 would be five to six degrees below that average, and six over thirty is 0.2, same as five over twenty-five, so in general terms near the end of the month you drop 0.2 each time there is a day that cool. 

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Current GFS suggests an outcome not far from 10.7 C and the EWP would add a few more small amounts to finish around 65-70 mm although heavier rain is due to arrive on 1st of November so if that were to speed up, add however much that event could bring. 

For the CET, I foresee the average falling slowly at first to mid-11s by Thursday 25th then faster with some days not much higher than 5 or 6. 

The math is fairly simple, if we are at 11 degrees at some point around 26th then each day that averaged 5 to 6 would be five to six degrees below that average, and six over thirty is 0.2, same as five over twenty-five, so in general terms near the end of the month you drop 0.2 each time there is a day that cool. 

My 10.8 and 75mm could be a win double, first ever?

[damianslaw]

A plunge in the CET will occur at the end of the month, should the synoptics on offer verify. Alas a finish in the 10s certainly not out of the question, resulting in a not too far off near average value, but still above.