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October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


Roger J Smith

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12.0 to the 7th

0.3 below the 61 to 90 average
0.1 below the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
16 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

The longer outlook is cooler, sub 11c me thinks.

Likely to be between 12.5C and 13C by mid-month, so for October as a whole to be below 11C would require the second half to average around 9C. Possible, but unlikely I think. Unless there's some monster end of month downward correction.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Likely to be between 12.5C and 13C by mid-month, so for October as a whole to be below 11C would require the second half to average around 9C. Possible, but unlikely I think. Unless there's some monster end of month downward correction.

At least a 0.4 downward correction will be applied.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 11C -2.1C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

11.9 to the 8th

0.3 below the 61 to 90 average
0.1 below the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

12.2C to the 9th... +0.2 (14.7: +2.8)
12.5C to the 10th... +0.5 (15.4: +3.2)
13.0C to the 11th... +0.9 (17.5: +5.8) [Daily Record: 17.6C from 1978]
13.0C to the 12th... +1.0 (13.5: +1.9)
13.3C to the 13th... +1.4 (16.8: +5.5) [Daily Record 16.8C from 1990]
13.2C to the 14th... +1.4 (12.6: +1.7)
13.0C to the 15th... +1.2 (9.7: -1.1)
12.9C to the 16th... +1.3 (12.0: +1.7)
12.9C to the 17th... +1.3 (11.6: +1.6)
12.6C to the 18th... +1.1 (8.9: -1.2)

One or 2 chilly days, but overall a very mild outlook for the next 10, with a couple of daily records under threat.

  Oct8.thumb.JPG.0e4e80cc86ff8235c879d1e5cdaf70cd.JPG   Oct8MM.thumb.JPG.2da76f7b406d3ac1bc309d7953931b93.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 10.9C -2.1C below normal rainfall unchanged.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

10.6c here to the 8th, 0.5c below the 1981-2010 average.

12.8mm so far this month.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12.2 to the 9th

0.1 above the 61 to 90 average
0.2 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 11.3C -1.6C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12.6 to the 10th

0.5 above the 61 to 90 average
0.6 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

A below average 2nd half of October should pull the average down to just below average by the end.

3 more rises are on the way at least over the next few days, it could be a real struggle to get the CET below average if that's what you're looking for. It should be comfortably over 1C above both averages by Sunday.

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Posted
  • Location: St.Albans, Hertfordshire
  • Location: St.Albans, Hertfordshire

Just something I've noticed.

Friday night into Saturday morning london is not forecast to drop below 19oC and where I am here in Hertfordshire its not meant to be below 18oC! 

I researched the record highest overnight minima and it's 19.4oC for October! 

Is it a record worth watching out for?!

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

13.0C to the 11th... +1.0 (16.8: +5.1) [Daily Record: 17.6C from 1978]
13.2C to the 12th... +1.2 (15.4: +3.8)
13.6C to the 13th... +1.7 (18.5: +7.2) [Previous record 16.8C from 1990]
13.5C to the 14th... +1.6 (11.9: +1.0)
13.3C to the 15th... +1.5 (10.8: +0.0)
13.2C to the 16th... +1.5 (11.5: +1.2)
13.0C to the 17th... +1.4 (10.5: +0.5)
12.8C to the 18th... +1.3 (8.9: -1.2)
12.6C to the 19th... +1.2 (9.8: -0.2)
12.6C to the 20th... +1.2 (10.9: +1.1)

Quite a remarkable forecast for the 13th. if it came off, it would push the latest date a CET of 18.5C or more has been recorded 7 days further into Autumn.
After that, daily values return close to the seasonal average, with the rolling CET dropping away accordingly.

Oct10.thumb.JPG.544f61f2a77b2a40472dd57646499d87.JPG   Oct10MM.thumb.JPG.b87a62e1237f6876f417926264aeea21.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 11.7C -1.1C below normal. Rainfall unchanged

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12.9 to the 11th

0.9 above the 61 to 90 average
0.9 above the 81 to 10 average 
__________________________________

Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st
Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th

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20 hours ago, ARW WeatherMan said:

Just something I've noticed.

Friday night into Saturday morning london is not forecast to drop below 19oC and where I am here in Hertfordshire its not meant to be below 18oC! 

I researched the record highest overnight minima and it's 19.4oC for October! 

Is it a record worth watching out for?!

The record for England is 18.6C so this could definitely be beaten!

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Posted
  • Location: St.Albans, Hertfordshire
  • Location: St.Albans, Hertfordshire
25 minutes ago, crucible72 said:

The record for England is 18.6C so this could definitely be beaten!

Will be very interesting to see if it does 

For it to be broken does it have to stay above 18.6oC in a location for 24 hours? 

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4 minutes ago, ARW WeatherMan said:

Will be very interesting to see if it does 

For it to be broken does it have to stay above 18.6oC in a location for 24 hours? 

No it only needs to stay above 18.6 from 21:00 this evening until 9:00 tomorrow morning,

as that's the twelve hour time period during which minimum temperatures are recorded.

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Posted
  • Location: St.Albans, Hertfordshire
  • Location: St.Albans, Hertfordshire
2 hours ago, crucible72 said:

No it only needs to stay above 18.6 from 21:00 this evening until 9:00 tomorrow morning,

as that's the twelve hour time period during which minimum temperatures are recorded.

Well judging by the 15oC 850hpa temperatures I think it's looking likely that will be broken somewhere tonight then!?

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