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October 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


Roger J Smith

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
20 hours ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

13C. The first half of October is heading into warmest on record territory..

That prediction of first half of October being warmest on record looks a bust before the month has even started.

First half of October 1921 had a CET of 15.4C 

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

10.4c and 55mm please

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

10.1*C and 84 mm, thanks.

Yep - extremely boring - but I'm staying 'serious' and hoping that the scientific approach can recover at least a little after the tragic 'no-Nino' situation of Aug-Sep which threw the estimates wide(r) of the mark .

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Actually I’ll bump up to 10.4C please, still 117mm

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

CET forecasts .. number in brackets shows the order of entry (only the last one counts in that regard)

15.5 LG (10) .. 13.0 Blu (37)

12.5 syed (40) .. 12.4 TJM14 (13) ..12.1 RJS (31), KMan (43)

11.6 dav (55) .. 11.5 PG (7), viz (46), MWB (56)

11.3 vir (21), SF (42) .. 11.2 sray (41), Mul (53) .. 11.1 reef (52) .. 11.0 avg 1988-2017 and J10 (57)

10.9 BFTP (26) ..10.8 EdS (11), MBay (30), DK3 (54)

10.7 avg 1981-2010 and SB (1), SS (34), metal (50) .. 10.6 MIA (17), Rel (22) .. 10.5 Dr(S) (25), Dww (29), Pit (36)

10.4 w26 (4), Doc (49), CPS (58) and consensus .. ... 10.3 BFTV (45) ..

10.2 RD (8), Jeff (27), dlaw (39), w-h (44) .. 10.1 IRA252 (2), PSL (24), Don (48), sing (51)

10.0 Bob (9), Leo (5), Owl (20), Feb91 (32)

 9.9 nn2013 (14), star (33), Nor (35) .. 9.8 Kirk (15), Ste (6)

 9.7 Peg (16) .. 9.6 Godb (18) .. 9.5 sdog (23), Dun (47)

 9.4 LIS (28) .. 9.3 SDr (38) .. 9.1 Sum95 (19)

 8.9 Dami (12) .. 7.7 DRL (3)

58 forecasts (on time), consensus is 10.4 C.

===================================================================

 

EWP forecasts (mm)

 

200 LG .. 121.3 PG .. 117 CPS .. 115 BFTV .. 111 SDr .. 110 Bob

105 Jeff .. (100.8 mm _ avg 1981-2010 )

 99 EdS, Rel, Nor, J10 ..  (96.6 mm _ avg 1988-2017) .. 95 dav ... 92 DK3 ... 90 nn2013

 88 w26 .. 87 SF .. 86 vir ... 85 Dr(S), syed, Reef .. 84 sing (consensus) ... 80 Leo, BFTP

 78 Sum95 .. 76 viz .. 75 MIA .. 70 Peg, Feb91, Pit, Mul

 69.6 Kirk .. 68 TJM14, Don .. 65 w-h .. 64 Ste .. 63 RD

 55 Dami, Godb, RJS, Doc .. 53 Star .. 

____________________________

41 on time (extends to 0300h) .. consensus 84 mm. 

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

10c and 100mm

 

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

Dam late again.

Can I have 11.1c please.

89mm on the old rainfall guess.

Difficult to call really, I think the hots versus the colds will even out ish over the month, will it go lower than average in October.

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

late sorry so 9.9 and 65

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

1981-2010 CET averages, cumulative and 1772 - 2017 record values

________________________________________________________________

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ MAX ________ MIN 

01 ___ 12.9 ___ 12.9 ___ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808&1888)
02 ___ 12.3 ___ 12.6 ___ 17.9 (2011) ___ 3.6 (1817)
03 ___ 12.1 ___ 12.4 ___ 19.8 (2011) ___ 4.7 (1817)
04 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.3 ___ 17.7 (1959) ___ 5.1 (1912)
05 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.2 ___ 17.9 (1886) ___ 4.6 (1888)

06 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.1 ___19.0 (1921) ___ 4.1 (1888)
07 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.1 ___16.9 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1829)
08 ___ 11.8 ___ 12.0 ___17.7 (1995) ___ 4.1 (1829)
09 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.0 ___17.5 (1995) ___ 3.3 (1852)
10 ___ 12.5 ___ 12.0 ___17.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1814)

11 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.0 ___ 17.6 (1978) ___ 3.9 (1860)
12 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.0 ___ 16.5 (1978) ___ 3.2 (1887)
13 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.9 ___ 16.8 (1990) ___ 2.2 (1838)
14 ___ 10.9 ___ 11.8 ___ 17.2 (2017) ___ 3.1 (1838) __ max was 16.1 (1990)
15 ___ 10.8 ___ 11.8 ___ 15.7 (1930) ___ 2.5 (1843)

16 ___ 10.3 ___ 11.7 ___ 16.4 (2017) ___ 1.8 (1843) __ max was 15.8 (1818)
17 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.6 ___ 15.6 (1897) ___ 2.5 (1824)
18 ___ 10.1 ___ 11.5 ___ 16.7 (2014) ___ 2.4 (1843)
19 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.4 ___ 16.3 (1921) ___ 1.5 (1813)
20 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.3 ___ 14.9 (1795) ___ 2.1 (1842)

21 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.3 ___ 15.2 (1998) ___ 1.2 (1842)
22 ____ 9.9 ___ 11.2 ___ 16.2 (1906) ___ 2.5 (1931)
23 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.4 (1998) ___ 0.9 (1859)
24 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.3 (2009) ___ 0.6 (1859) __ 14.2 in 2017 close to max
25 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.0 __ 14.0 (1978, 2013) _ 2.0 (1784) __ 13.9 in 2017 close to max

26 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.7 (1927) ___ 1.5 (1785)
27 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 16.7 (1888) ___ 1.4 (1869)
28 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 15.6 (1888) ___ 0.9 (1895)
29 ____ 8.9 ___ 10.8 __ 14.0 (1772,1984) _ 0.3 (1895)
30 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.7 ___ 15.5 (2005) ___ 0.7 (1836)

31 ____ 9.3 ___ 10.7 ___ 16.9 (2014) ___ 0.7 (1836)

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