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Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    39 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    It isn't but you do seem have a fascination with CFS when it shows a "cold" March. Its almost a running joke. 

    I was more amused by the fact it showed +NAO right the way through winter then suddenly flipped to a strong - NAO for March. The UK's luck in a nutshell. 

    There's no running joke, I often post CFS charts because they're free and accessible. They also allow for a month by month breakdown, rather than a tri monthly mean. 

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Just for fun at this stage but the CFS looks interesting for Boxing day  Even -16c uppers a few days later! 1962 anyone? ?

    The cooling trend has begun!.. And certainly some interesting anoms/features begining to raise as we walk slowly into the new season. The format feels somewhat like a jigsaw with missing par

    Greetings! A shiny new model thread for the new season to continue your discussions of the latest charts etc. ?? There looks to be a lot of wild weather to come in the next few days with furt

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    ^^

    Here's an even more ridiculously cold one for March.

    cfs-3-3-2019_cpx5.png

    Except the difference this time is its a stonking cold -nao setup for Jan as well!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

    I was more amused by the fact it showed +NAO right the way through winter then suddenly flipped to a strong - NAO for March. The UK's luck in a nutshell. 

    There's no running joke, I often post CFS charts because they're free and accessible. They also allow for a month by month breakdown, rather than a tri monthly mean. 

    Plus a lot of cold Marches have occurred lately so I bet the CFS has verified better for March recently than any other month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    50 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Plus a lot of cold Marches have occurred lately so I bet the CFS has verified better for March recently than any other month.

    I don't want to derail this thread but there hasn't been a lot of cold Marches recently. There have been only 3 sub 5C CET Marches this century. (2006, 2013 and 2018)  4 in the last 30 years.

    Edited by Weather-history
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    Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

    Not quite sure why this thread has evolved into a cold march one I mean there’s plenty of months to go before we can begin to think about what March will be like. ?

    Edited by jordan smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    ^^

    Here's an even more ridiculously cold one for March.

    cfs-3-3-2019_cpx5.png

    Except the difference this time is its a stonking cold -nao setup for Jan as well!!

    'Ridiculously' being the operative word, feb...?:santa-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    NetW-Wx showing a good chance of a ground frost for some over the next few nights.

    1-2.thumb.png.6658d2999b855dd623598b419b45da54.png2-2.thumb.png.693b6973987a9c9acd7096ecf0d01cfa.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    The GFS seems to be easing off the idea of an early October N'ly last. In fact on this run we hit 15C uppers!

    Netweather GFS Image

    Not that I'm upset about this as I'm pretty sure there is a correlation between a -NAO October and +NAO winter. So that HP can sit just to our S all month if it likes ?

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    3 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

    Not really getting your point ? I said it's rare for it to snow in October as you have , but it still can happen as you have said again . So bit confused of what your trying to get at ? As for it's rare getting a frost in October , it looks like we're gonna get some at the start of the week . Falling to around 2 degrees on Monday and we're only in September . Sign of things to come in October ?. We're in autumn now not summer , the warm sunny days will soon be gone . 

     

    Not sure what you're not getting about my post? It was fairly to the point- ie. there is virtually no chance of any snow in October, away from Scotland in any case! I was talking about air frost as well- 2C is not an air frost. Of course ground frost is very likely to happen at some stage in an average October. Please enlighten as to where in England you think we are going to get air frost next week?

    You've been spamming the thread with speculation about snow, frost etc when I can't see any evidence of this happening any time soon.

    BBC going for 19C here on Wednesday and I reckon it might be a bit higher- still plenty of time for warm days here and there.

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    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
    11 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

     

    Not sure what you're not getting about my post? It was fairly to the point- ie. there is virtually no chance of any snow in October, away from Scotland in any case! I was talking about air frost as well- 2C is not an air frost. Of course ground frost is very likely to happen at some stage in an average October. Please enlighten as to where in England you think we are going to get air frost next week?

     

    Monday night into Tuesday rural Northants, north Bucks , south Cumbria or good old Benson Oxfordshire look good at the moment for an air frost ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    The GFS seems to be easing off the idea of an early October N'ly last. In fact on this run we hit 15C uppers!

    Netweather GFS Image

    Not that I'm upset about this as I'm pretty sure there is a correlation between a -NAO October and +NAO winter. So that HP can sit just to our S all month if it likes ?

    cool chart, early oct, bring on the heat! it's still summer in my view, 30 degrees can be reached at this time of year, mainly SE but still,

    Mid Nov, then bring on the cold setups

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

     

    Not sure what you're not getting about my post? It was fairly to the point- ie. there is virtually no chance of any snow in October, away from Scotland in any case! I was talking about air frost as well- 2C is not an air frost. Of course ground frost is very likely to happen at some stage in an average October. Please enlighten as to where in England you think we are going to get air frost next week?

    You've been spamming the thread with speculation about snow, frost etc when I can't see any evidence of this happening any time soon.

    BBC going for 19C here on Wednesday and I reckon it might be a bit higher- still plenty of time for warm days here and there.

    Yup some OTT ramping at times, the only thing we can conclude is that the outlook is very anticyclonic. Chilly nights at times but pleasant days and if the 12z GFS and it could get really quite warm at times.

    GFSOPEU12_186_1.png

    It would't surprise me if the unsettled interlude forecast for parts next Sunday is shunted North...

    Then we have hurricane Leslie meandering around the North Atlantic, which throws up a whole array of options

    GFSOPEU12_336_1.png

    I'd happily take this! Would much rather have some warm weather now then frosts or snow - that can wait till later with charts like that!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    23 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    The GFS seems to be easing off the idea of an early October N'ly last. In fact on this run we hit 15C uppers!

    Netweather GFS Image

    Not that I'm upset about this as I'm pretty sure there is a correlation between a -NAO October and +NAO winter. So that HP can sit just to our S all month if it likes ?

    Yeah there is some statistical link though not sure if there would be a physical mechanism for it, still I'll take any encouraging signs we can get! Low solar activity may mean we see more blocking towards our NW perhaps.

    ANOM2m_pastMTH_equir.png

    Interesting to see that our westerly dominated September has resulted in a return of the Atlantic cold blob. Though unlike 2015 and other such years it is further east.

    Expect westerlies/ NW'lies to be a fair bit cooler if we see them in October. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    36 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

     

    Not sure what you're not getting about my post? It was fairly to the point- ie. there is virtually no chance of any snow in October, away from Scotland in any case! I was talking about air frost as well- 2C is not an air frost. Of course ground frost is very likely to happen at some stage in an average October. Please enlighten as to where in England you think we are going to get air frost next week?

    You've been spamming the thread with speculation about snow, frost etc when I can't see any evidence of this happening any time soon.

    BBC going for 19C here on Wednesday and I reckon it might be a bit higher- still plenty of time for warm days here and there.

    No I think you just don't like people posting charts that don't show dry sunny warm/hot weather . Winds coming from the north has been showing in recent runs . So I was posting charts showing that , as it is the model output discussion is it not ?? So how is that spamming this thread up . You say the BBC have 19 degrees for Wednesday ? Well this it not the BBC discussion thread is it ? So stop spamming up the thread . And I have never once said it's going to snow in October have I ? Just said it's rare but can happen . So no still don't get your silly point . 

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    And back to sensible Model discussion please, Thankyou.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    Good job the GFS 12z is a fat warm outlier from October ?? More likely to have cold incursions from the North West. ?

    70979C29-EB20-40A3-B265-9309A020B6F0.png

    thought 'outlier' meant miles on it's own? looks not far off other ensembles there? but agree sadly horrible NW'lys more likely, vile feeling freezing wind at 6 degrees, cannot imagine anyone wanting that (south)

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM solidly behind the anticyclonic outcome right to the end, T240:

    image.thumb.jpg.0f8e9c8a056d7bc8d386ef6bf7516b94.jpg

    GFS solid too, right through into the low res period, here T336:

    image.thumb.jpg.68fc531a3d8144b389072cfca7ed3ee2.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.4005258daa0a347e8564726baac93ff8.jpg

    It looks like being a significant warm spell to me, when you remember that this is the record warmest October day:

    image.thumb.jpg.03014c905bade01de08189c97fb2788a.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.f3d22a2c7c2852b101eb852d814c5564.jpg

    If it lands right it could push this one close.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley, Kent
  • Location: Bexley, Kent
    37 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    Has the ECM got any backing ?

    It quiet close to is mean through the majority of  the run, goes out on its own right at the end.  Spread in the GFS and ECM ensembles at 10 day is about the same. 

    Edited by Sardonixs
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    It's a great looking Ecm 12z ensemble mean beyond tomorrow IF you love anticyclonic weather..still going strong at T+240 hours..could be a prolonged settled spell on the way across at least the southern half of the uk!?

    EDM1-240.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
    3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    thought 'outlier' meant miles on it's own? looks not far off other ensembles there? but agree sadly horrible NW'lys more likely, vile feeling freezing wind at 6 degrees, cannot imagine anyone wanting that (south)

    Nothing wrong with seeing the autumn season rolling in, much better than mild and humid muck if you ask me. It’s been way too warm for too long now, can go and never come back for all I care... 

    But anyway, high pressure really can’t stay away for long can it! Always seems to nudge its way back into the reliable.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM solidly behind the anticyclonic outcome right to the end, T240:

    image.thumb.jpg.0f8e9c8a056d7bc8d386ef6bf7516b94.jpg

    GFS solid too, right through into the low res period, here T336:

    image.thumb.jpg.68fc531a3d8144b389072cfca7ed3ee2.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.4005258daa0a347e8564726baac93ff8.jpg

    It looks like being a significant warm spell to me, when you remember that this is the record warmest October day:

    image.thumb.jpg.03014c905bade01de08189c97fb2788a.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.f3d22a2c7c2852b101eb852d814c5564.jpg

    If it lands right it could push this one close.

    Chalk and cheese.

    The airmasses beneath those HPs are different. Back in 2011, air straight from the southern Med and N Africa was being sourced. 

    The GFS shows an airmass which is more maritime influenced, albeit still with warm uppers. I think you're looking at the GFS and still thinking it's June/July/August. The ECM also shows a flow around the periphery of the HP. Significant warm spell? Not based on those charts. Though it certainly won't be cold either!

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    The cold charts for October just keep on coming.

    cfs-1-10-2018_uek1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    The cold charts for October just keep on coming.

    cfs-1-10-2018_uek1.png

    Yeah, lets just hope they keep coming for the winter period.  Nothing worse than cold weather in October, only for the AO/NAO flip to positive for the winter period!

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