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Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Stormy then summer returns.  This could be volatile weekend but get ready to get the BBQ and shorts on again.  Two big stories likely in 5 days.....for very different reasons.  

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    21 minutes ago, Sardonixs said:

    Looking through the ECM members and there is an almost 50/50 split for Sunday with 23/50 going for a deep low around the country, the others leaning more towards the op run. GFS looks pretty evenly split as well, despite its op runs being more bullish.

    Mate, the ensembles for tomorrow night are even more chaotic. Morecambe Bay receives 20mph or 110mph gusts, and literally every value in between!! The uncertainty is incredible for T36! 

    Oh and I wouldn't recommend a trip to Denmark on Friday - some members are up to 120mph by the time the storm gets there ... ouch! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    I must say although a more settled spell is likely after the storms, there is a very strong signal for an At;antic ridge, possibly even something more promising for cold than that, and its likely that winds will come from a quadrant North of West so still showers for NW exposed places.

    gensnh-21-1-312_neh2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Surrey

    And storm pretty much gone on the 00z we knew it was going to happen.. Thankfully looks like we dodged a bullet there 

    Edited by Surrey
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    Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
    13 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    Forgot what storm it was called back in January that brought very damaging winds across the East Midlands and East Anglia?This could be similar. 

    That was the storm that pushed through on the night of 18/19th January which wasn’t named but named David by France. The arpege and arome where the only models which got it right which is why I’m reasonably confident that they are on to something tonight.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, Surrey said:

    And storm pretty much gone on the 00z we knew it was going to happen.. Thankfully looks like we dodged a bullet there 

    Yes, all serious windspeeds have gone on all models. Just a few ordinary gales on the far S coast. 

    The GFS even allows a little warm up at the end of next week under sunny skies. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Surrey
    6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Yes, all serious windspeeds have gone on all models. Just a few ordinary gales on the far S coast. 

    The GFS even allows a little warm up at the end of next week under sunny skies. 

    Not the same though can be said for the storm tonight. I think the main reason that the start of the week showed not much of a feature is it deepened after the uk. 

    Where as yesterday we saw the idea and continued support of it deepening slightly earlier and this brings stronger winds. 

    I don't like the look of the front sweeping east from around midnight, could really increase the winds as it clears through 

    Just to add most high RES models do bring a swathe of 60mph winds with what looks like a squall line. 

    The models really don't do to well apart from the Arome at picking up and bigger gusts that could get mixed down with any squall features and I think there will be more than one tonight across various areas or areas of convective rainfall bringing that enhanced wind gust threat again. 

     

    Edited by Surrey
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    Posted
  • Location: Croxley
  • Location: Croxley
    1 minute ago, Surrey said:

    Not the same though can be said for the storm tonight. I think the main reason that the start of the week showed not much of a feature is it deepened after the uk. 

    Where as yesterday we saw the idea and continued support of it deepening slightly earlier and this brings stronger winds. 

    I don't like the look of the front sweeping east from around midnight, could really increase the winds as it clears through 

     

    The GFS was showing a deeper storm for tonight before it capitulated a few days ago. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    Why is the met office putting out warnings for wind on sunday/monday I wonder?

    Seems very odd for such a large storm in the charts, to vanish overnight?

    I bet we'll see it back later in the day's runs

     

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-09-23&lat=52.481&lon=-1.4674

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    46 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Yes, all serious windspeeds have gone on all models. Just a few ordinary gales on the far S coast. 

    Well not quite. The GEM and ECM have quite a bad sting in the tail for the SE corner on Sunday night. 

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

    This Mornings Arpege Model Still showing a spell of Heavy Snow Over the Welsh Mountains on Sunday Afternoon

    C.S

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    Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

    As already stated by others, the GFS has considerably backed away from damaging winds over the next four days:

    image.thumb.gif.a9072094a5b9d7660bea3efb778d5760.gif

    Maximum gusts now limited to 50mph in most places; 70mph now only likely in the most exposed locations well above sea level.  After this sequence conditions settle down as high pressure begins to influence our weather next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind, storms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
    1 hour ago, cyclonic happiness said:

    Why is the met office putting out warnings for wind on sunday/monday I wonder?

    Seems very odd for such a large storm in the charts, to vanish overnight?

    I bet we'll see it back later in the day's runs

     

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-09-23&lat=52.481&lon=-1.4674

    Yes i think so too. Either that or the warning will disappear by lunch time.

    Edited by Nick123
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    Mmm not sure where your summer returns stems from, the high pressure will be ridging through under chilly uppers, frost likely and suppressed temps, and none of the models showing a significant warm up next week. 

    Chilly by night but under calm sunny skies it should be very pleasantly warm by day

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Certainly not looking anything like as threatening today - still windy yes, but the risk of 90-100mph+ gusts seems to be receding for now. A cool start next week before warmer air starts to get circulated in the high returning things to a much warmer feel.  Trend still there to pull the high out west towards next weekend.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Well the hiatus over Sunday seems to be settling down to near enough what the latest Fax charts show?

    The T+84 is somewhat different from the Exeter idea from last evening, T+96.

    A ridge then moving in from the west which finally fits in with the idea from the 500 mb anomaly charts of ridging being the main player for next week.

    I can't say that any model has been really all that helpful over the past 48 hours!

    Just my view of course.

    https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t96

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Yes @johnholmes , a change in the forecast from exeter overnight....could get a bit windy in the south for a short while, but it appears the sytem rattles through very quickly indeed, to be replaced with a large area of high pressure, and things settling down nicely into the last week of the month.

    PPVL89.gif?31415

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GEFS 0z Tableaux from Meteociel illustrates where we have got to quite well.  Here's wind gusts in km/h for a location near London:

    windgusts.thumb.png.c5140e36868e127585c87746cf2c637c.png

    Firms up the windy period overnight into tomorrow, but only perturbation 8 has the severe storm on Sunday now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    The view from the team over here very much on the view being shown from UKMO model in the shorter term. The track of Sundays low may be even a bit further south than shown on the latest fax but expected to move through at a pace. Obviously, now changes the forecast for us in the Eastern Alps with a change in the present spell of warm benign weather to a more unsettled spell to start next week with wind rain and snow at elevation for a time as indicated in the upper air profile chart for Tuesday. A bit of a shock for us over here. Longer term, the high settling over Western Europe with temps recovering and then the thought from our experts is for the high to retrogress into the Atlantic to open the doors to a much cooler end to the month for many in Europe ( including the UK )

    c

    UW120-7.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    25 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    The view from the team over here very much on the view being shown from UKMO model in the shorter term. The track of Sundays low may be even a bit further south than shown on the latest fax but expected to move through at a pace. Obviously, now changes the forecast for us in the Eastern Alps with a change in the present spell of warm benign weather to a more unsettled spell to start next week with wind rain and snow at elevation for a time as indicated in the upper air profile chart for Tuesday. A bit of a shock for us over here. Longer term, the high settling over Western Europe with temps recovering and then the thought from our experts is for the high to retrogress into the Atlantic to open the doors to a much cooler end to the month for many in Europe ( including the UK )

    c

    UW120-7.gif

    This chart below shows a big change for Central/ Eastern Europe early next week.. Summer to winter in a matter of a few days. Looks like temporary Arctic airmass in the mix for the Eastern Alps.

    C

    42168869_2344111499145271_3434327326727340032_o.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

    Well the hiatus over Sunday seems to be settling down to near enough what the latest Fax charts show?

    The T+84 is somewhat different from the Exeter idea from last evening, T+96.

    A ridge then moving in from the west which finally fits in with the idea from the 500 mb anomaly charts of ridging being the main player for next week.

    I can't say that any model has been really all that helpful over the past 48 hours!

    Just my view of course.

    https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t96

     

    Still quite a bit of uncertainty for now IMO re: Sunday's low, GFS and UKMO in the same camp with a shallow but slowly deepening low running across the south on Sunday, whilst 00z ECMWF shows a much more menacing and deeper low tracking and deepening further north.

    All charts below from 00z runs for noon Sun 23 Sept

    GFS                                                         UKMO                                                     ECMWF

    GFSOPEU00_84_1.thumb.png.294e1a7e5bfb7aede755105447c4dc7e.png1377193769_SLPW10_med_84.thumb.png.9b0486abbb078c953374d1e3ebb19129.pngecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2018092000_084.thumb.jpg.fdaab2d8dd94adad09a2c37404ca6b65.jpg

    Ensembles from GFS and EC not really giving too much of a clue either other than GEFS mean and postage stamps want to keep the low south and shallow like the operational, whilst the EPS mean keeps the low in the means further north in track

    GEFS slp mean and spread                    GEFS postage stamps

    GEFS_slpmean.thumb.png.320b0a30e0cf0b0d82db532c65e57ece.pnggfs_stamps_00z.thumb.png.efc6a52e656002a620cdc3edc50cf7ae.png

     

    EPS mean slp

    render-gorax-green-008-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-3K7wKS.thumb.png.94a6209188f8154f57930ceac0534e84.png

    Personally, I think the EC will track the low further south and shallower on subsequent runs, while GFS and UKMO perhaps edge further north. But still can't rule out some deeper options than GFS currently shows - 06z GFS very similar in track and depth to 00z of low centre across S England Sunday morning, so sticking to its guns for now!

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    6 hours ago, Sky Full said:

    As already stated by others, the GFS has considerably backed away from damaging winds over the next four days:

    image.thumb.gif.a9072094a5b9d7660bea3efb778d5760.gif

    Maximum gusts now limited to 50mph in most places; 70mph now only likely in the most exposed locations well above sea level.  After this sequence conditions settle down as high pressure begins to influence our weather next week.

    You do know you have posted an ‘expired’ chart that was for Wednesday (yesterday). Spread for Sunday illustrates greatest uncertainty, is associated with development/deepening of this potential storm, plenty of perbs bring stormy conditions. Sunday still could have a sting most likely in far E/SE. A lot can still happen. 

    907EF824-D8B8-4F09-8D60-AF313D362B1E.thumb.png.57c643a545ee097aebdd36eb6e611f6e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

    That’s a big high pressure for next week! 1040mb 

    airpressure.png 

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