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Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Well the arp and the icon bringing damaging winds across the middle of the country  the icon a tad more South   on par with doris in these parts 

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    Just for fun at this stage but the CFS looks interesting for Boxing day  Even -16c uppers a few days later! 1962 anyone? ?

    The cooling trend has begun!.. And certainly some interesting anoms/features begining to raise as we walk slowly into the new season. The format feels somewhat like a jigsaw with missing par

    Greetings! A shiny new model thread for the new season to continue your discussions of the latest charts etc. ?? There looks to be a lot of wild weather to come in the next few days with furt

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
    1 minute ago, weirpig said:

    Well the arp and the icon bringing damaging winds across the middle of the country  the icon a tad more South   on par with doris in these parts 

    So, is there increasing chance of the Met Office upgrading there warnings? I'm just a bit weary of the GFS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

    So, is there increasing chance of the Met Office upgrading there warnings? I'm just a bit weary of the GFS.

    Warnings won' be upgraded till the morning  that' if the arp and icon are correct   hirlam puts the feature much further south  still to early to call 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Still very much up in the air. We may just end up with somewhere in the middle....very windy, just not as apocalyptic as the gfs keeps showing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
    8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Still very much up in the air. We may just end up with somewhere in the middle....very windy, just not as apocalyptic as the gfs keeps showing.

    The GFS does like to show the apocalyptic.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ARPEGE 12z at T42 for Friday, savage for the midlands!

    image.thumb.jpg.eb0f7866bd38d6dfc28d825f76033ca6.jpg

    But Sunday T101, has the whole thing way south now, to be fair the first time this model is in range so more runs needed here:

    image.thumb.jpg.df694170095f03c47bc22b0332033437.jpg

    GFS 12z doesn't really downgrade the storm much on the 1 hr charts (good call @Man With Beard) here T100:

    image.thumb.jpg.dcc10f585ff17f9803e2cc8983e1399d.jpg

    Don't think anyone's posted the GEM, has the storm here T96, slightly less deep but worrying track:

    image.thumb.jpg.ab91a280978029e2d260869270606196.jpg

    So much going on here!

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    23 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ARPEGE 12z at T42 for Friday, savage for the midlands!

    image.thumb.jpg.eb0f7866bd38d6dfc28d825f76033ca6.jpg

    But Sunday T101, has the whole thing way south now, to be fair the first time this model is in range so more runs needed here:

    image.thumb.jpg.df694170095f03c47bc22b0332033437.jpg

    GFS 12z doesn't really downgrade the storm much on the 1 hr charts (good call @Man With Beard) here T100:

    image.thumb.jpg.dcc10f585ff17f9803e2cc8983e1399d.jpg

    Don't think anyone's posted the GEM, has the storm here T96, slightly less deep but worrying track:

    image.thumb.jpg.ab91a280978029e2d260869270606196.jpg

    So much going on here!

    The models are ramping up and if the ECM shows the storm tonight. it will be named I reckon.

    The odd one out is ukmo but might be worth checking fax charts over the next 24hr.

    Will they go with there raw data or blended.

    I believe it's long over due a stormy autumn.

    El classico 80s 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    FV3 at T96, Ouch!

    image.thumb.jpg.e8903d1415425ed3b3060552093af86c.jpg

    ECM at T96, not Ouch!

    image.thumb.jpg.351d87c20c598955f02c9b5bc284514d.jpg

    I do wonder if we're maybe missing something on ECM and UKMO due to the 24hr time steps we see, as the timing of this potential event seems a little uncertain.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    @Mike Poole Intresting the hourly charts shows how easy it is to miss something

    That back edge looks brutal for an hour or 2 for some.. 

    Tomorrow still is all up in the air (sorry for the pun) 

    The euro4 6z is just blank can't even check what that is trying to show.. 

    Edited by Surrey
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Difficult to see the potential wind event Friday on the ecm  but it does show very high winds as it leaves the UK on Friday  possibly 130 kph    the arome similar to arpege and icon 

     

    aromehd-11-39-0.png

    Edited by weirpig
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    Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

    It appears that the models are confident that a storm is going to develop but that this will occur either on Friday or on Sunday, not both.  After the weekend the following week looks much more benign and settled:

                                              +144h                                                    +192h       

    ECM       image.thumb.gif.9f3b9ff66653664fa5cfcdfd999299f1.gif     image.thumb.gif.a8c9e95da7d37a5131e2d6f9428e85e2.gif

    GFS        image.thumb.png.35a23dc0905ccf66e7b334c44e1db995.png     image.thumb.png.b793ef386432962b4ac8b86981284771.png

    GEM       image.thumb.png.44ff01c380dcd6e5f8c748e0063a31d2.png     image.thumb.png.7eefba2c5dcaa193d15fd7edd0fa5ddf.png

    UKMO    image.thumb.gif.9db910a3629a4e8efca8408f16e4301d.gif

    Will this be sustained, or is it just a brief respite from an increasingly stormy Autumn?   The divergence at +192 indicates that the models are not yet certain about the end of next week, as you would expect at this distance.

    Edited by Sky Full
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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    Can anybody explain to me why the various NWP have been signalling for Atlantic storms, seemingly all from the same hymn sheet, then dropping them as they get closer? I mean, Sunday's storm was flagged by all NWP a couple of days ago, and now nothing. Seems odd. I know there must have been some signals, but to drop them pretty simultaneously is intriguing! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
    16 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

    Can anybody explain to me why the various NWP have been signalling for Atlantic storms, seemingly all from the same hymn sheet, then dropping them as they get closer? I mean, Sunday's storm was flagged by all NWP a couple of days ago, and now nothing. Seems odd. I know there must have been some signals, but to drop them pretty simultaneously is intriguing! 

    I think that tomorrow's system has come slightly out of the blue. It's only the past day or so that is has shown as deepening so rapidly. I suspect that if it deepens as much as some models are showing and takes that specific track then this would make Sunday's system less likely to be as deep as shown on the GFS

    If you look at the GFS v ECM at 12z Saturday, the ECM has a much stronger low over Scandinavia, whereas the GFS has already pushed it further NNE. Small differences like this at a short range make a bigger difference going forward....

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    These runner type systems which deepen rapidly as they cross the UK, historically do the most damage. 

    They can be very, very nasty but brief affairs. 

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    The crazy charts continue to throw some wild weather into them for Sunday, the latest is the Arpege which now has an area of snow (yes snow on the Autumn Equinox) across parts of mid & east Wales! Meanwhile the GFS continues to show an unusually cold afternoon for this time of year too for much of the UK behind that system... What next will it show I wonder??? 

    image.jpeg

    image.jpeg

    image.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    In reference to @Rocheydub‘s post: I think also the models in general, particularly the GFS, can have a bias of overblowing Low Pressure systems. They probably just overreact to the signals or something. 

    I remember Nick F doing a handy post yesterday regarding Shortwave Troughing phasing/merging with a frontal boundary and how that can help to deepen Lows. Maybe the way the models handle this affects their overall performance of storm modelling, too.

     

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Very interesting ECM. It has Friday's storm not like some others for strength but with stronger gusts on the south coast instead (up to 79mph). Then Sunday's storm may look like nothing on the big charts but it's developing the storm on exit of the UK and still achieves 75mph gusts in the SE corner.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    September certainly kicking into life at the moment - a proper blast of stormy wet weather we are in, short-term developments galore, making short-term forecasting a headache - where will see the strongest winds and heaviest rain.

    Reason for the explosion of low heights shown in most models this time tomorrow, is the marked temp profile developing over the UK, we have some very mild tropical air over southern UK with cold uppers digging in from the north, along the boundary a waving front and then bingo a rapid deepening low pressure. The main feature will be the persistant heavy rain, N Wales, Pennines and Lake District will see a deluge, localised flooding - and memories of the dry late spring - early summer will seem a lifetime ago..

    Friday will see most of the UK in a chilly NW airstream, Saturday calmer and drier for most, and still chilly, Sunday up in the air, but increasing signal another bout of very windy very weather for most, and some very chilly air digging in behind - will feel more like late Oct/early Nov, some wintry precipitation for Scottish Highlands and a significant risk of a widespread frost for north Sunday night followed by high pressure.

    Lots going on - very autumnal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley, Kent
  • Location: Bexley, Kent

    Looking through the ECM members and there is an almost 50/50 split for Sunday with 23/50 going for a deep low around the country, the others leaning more towards the op run. GFS looks pretty evenly split as well, despite its op runs being more bullish.

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    Ii  know its  fantasy world  and its not winter  yet i hope!!

    gens-16-1-264.png

    gensbc-16-1-276.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    GFSOPUK12_96_48.png

    Just thought I'd show this from the 12z GFS OP, 9C over Northern Lincolnshire and 21C just to the south of the wash.....

    What a temperature gradient! Still a lot of uncertainties about this storm but an extended period of anticyclonic weather thereafter looking more likely.

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Evening the gfs is still King the ex hurricane for the end of the week  ecm is making cow fodder out of it

    h850t850eu-6.png

    ecmt850.096.png

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