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Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Is it next April or have i got my wires crossed somewhere?

    Usually they have it on meteociel written at the bottom, but this time there's nothing there.

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    Just for fun at this stage but the CFS looks interesting for Boxing day  Even -16c uppers a few days later! 1962 anyone? ?

    The cooling trend has begun!.. And certainly some interesting anoms/features begining to raise as we walk slowly into the new season. The format feels somewhat like a jigsaw with missing par

    Greetings! A shiny new model thread for the new season to continue your discussions of the latest charts etc. ?? There looks to be a lot of wild weather to come in the next few days with furt

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    Usually they have it on meteociel written at the bottom, but this time there's nothing there.

    I am sure Paul or a senior member of the team posted about when it comes out somewhere,prob in this thread(archived thread maybe.)

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    ^^

    I keep forgetting about the parallel run (doesn't really matter yet), just wondering when it goes GFS operational, or do we have a whole winter of it? it would be a good reference point if there's some sort of model stand off in the run up to an Easterly.

    The parallel GFS isn't really the GFS at all, it is a totally different model called the FV3, identified as successor to GFS as I understand it.  It beat off competition from the FIM9 and others.  It takes the same input data as GFS though.  I would not expect it to take over from GFS until a long testing period, this is good news over the important winter season in that we will have both available.  Verification so far seems similar to UKMO for northern hemisphere at day 5, better than GFS, so it certainly isn't to be ignored - and over UKMO we of course have access to all the data out to T384.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    The parallel GFS isn't really the GFS at all, it is a totally different model called the FV3, identified as successor to GFS as I understand it.  It beat off competition from the FIM9 and others.  It takes the same input data as GFS though.  I would not expect it to take over from GFS until a long testing period, this is good news over the important winter season in that we will have both available.  Verification so far seems similar to UKMO for northern hemisphere at day 5, better than GFS, so it certainly isn't to be ignored - and over UKMO we of course have access to all the data out to T384.

    Does it have its own ensemble suite and how long has it been around - sorry for asking questions that have probably already been answered but I don't bother coming on usually until the business really starts so I always come in cold, not knowing about model changes / forum changes etc.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Does it have its own ensemble suite and how long has it been around - sorry for asking questions that have probably already been answered but I don't bother coming on usually until the business really starts so I always come in cold, not knowing about model changes / forum changes etc.

    This web page describes the FV3, suggests might go live in 2019:

    https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/fv3/

    I've seen nothing at all about any ensemble suite so I imagine that's well further down the line.

    It should be useful for the winter, I found it a useful model over the summer.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    October 1st would feel more like the start of winter further n / e on the Ecm 12z..great to see charts like this so early in the season!... I'm hoping Exeter are right about longer term prospects deeper into october with mention of cold and unsettled with snow on higher ground in the north!!:cold-emoji:?

    120_thickuk.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    25 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    October 1st would feel more like the start of winter further n / e on the Ecm 12z..great to see charts like this so early in the season!... I'm hoping Exeter are right about longer term prospects deeper into october with mention of cold and unsettled with snow on higher ground in the north!!

     

    Certainly a brief northerly around the turn of the month, not interested down south mind!  FV3 at T108:

    image.thumb.jpg.9ada08ba4bfa6f7d046e90678f0ea106.jpg

    Not necessarily the story into October proper, difference of opinion FV3 backs GFS with a southerly at T300, this keeps cropping up at this time frame:

    image.thumb.jpg.54c251080b25a62e7121304f1b9044ea.jpg

    ECM however has the high held west at T240:

    image.thumb.jpg.4ba97cef9499ce5cd49224cb80c24123.jpg

    One other point which is pertinent is the GEFS 12z at T336 support the easterly drift of the high as per the GFS and FV3:

    image.thumb.jpg.a3f1473f6a14694a93603b17786f4822.jpg

    So a brief cool blast, then a warm up, then what?

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Chopping and changing from the models at the moment - not too surprising when we have anticyclonic conditions ruling the roost, however, the forcing is coming from the NW, and I suspect we will see core of heights pivot to our west, advecting over the Uk at times then being pulled back from weak trough activity to our NW, hence a cooler north westerly episode. These set ups have the habit of repeating of themselves, and a trigger is then needed to either see the ridge build NE, or advect far to the west to allow a more pronounced northerly blast with heights then sinking south or retrogressing into Greenland - ECM is going this way, but perhaps a little too soon. Certainly Met Office forecast favours the latter scenario. 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Nice little incursion of arctic air for the n / e early next week on the Ecm 12z ensemble mean and by T+240 the high which keeps southern uk predominantly fine is losing it's grip and colder more unsettled weather is across the north..must say I hope there is an early taste of winter in october!:cold-emoji:?❄❄

    EDM0-96.gif

    EDM0-120.gif

    EDM1-240.GIF

    EDM0-240.gif

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    I am suprised no one has mentioned the Alaskan ridge?

    this forcing a trough down into N'rn America downstream could have ramifications upstream into the uk but it's all about timings and two scenario's could play the part,either we get an amplification into the atlantic vis the fv3 model(06z) or we get the trough drop down into the atlantic (gfs 12z) and a ridge east of it pushing into Scandi later on in the run

    lets have a look at the ecm and gefs ens day ten mean 500mb preasure and 850 temps+graph,the ecm is a bit cooler with a more W to NW flow

    EDH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.3a3bb42b2efce5060d1feb004e787c57.pnggensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.e336b23ca0fec21d1005371a9f3cf723.png

    EDH0-240.GIF.thumb.png.aafc3c58a73351dbce21e392bea80044.pnggensnh-21-0-240.thumb.png.db8e313bd1fa14d1351de3c84b5e778d.png

    graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.57cbac56d5f34172edac607c384efe48.pnggraphe_ens3_wwq9.thumb.gif.d0139fe76d6de93220b1198585fb88f1.gif

    and the 6-10 and 8-14 day 500mb outlook from cpc suggest's nothing out of the woodshead with a +ve hieght anomoly west of the uk so generally cool with upper flow from west to northwest and a big +ve height anomoly over Alaska into the pole.

    610day_03.thumb.gif.388095228d4c5e9da0212d95ca50fd56.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.e124c99fa44b4b048368c30b79e272e5.gif

    the latest sea level air preasure graph from Reykjavic shows a gradual lowering of hieghts there so that could be indicative to the cooler W/NW'ly winds showing on some models

    prmslReyjavic.thumb.png.2aaf40c1fff6ad2d7dbab35a04d5485b.png

    so a bit going on there,will the high retrogress west or push east and up into Scandi?,or it could hang around the uk for more pleasant spells of weather but chilly nights with fog and frost in some places.

    Scotland snow row looks to be increasing too so they could have a good early season up there:D

    graphe_ens3_ddj4.gif

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    spellchecking
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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Ecm 12z ext ens for debilt looked to have trended warmer through week 2. Hope this trend sticks now. I hate cold, rainy Octobers. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Agree about the ridge, what that does if it can ridge right up into the pole is at the very least push the Jet on a more Southerly track over our side, or even better if there's an amplified pattern in the Atlantic as well, we could slice the Vortex in half giving a cross polar flow before its even started to form!

    38 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    I am suprised no one has mentioned the Alaskan ridge?

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Agree about the ridge, what that does if it can ridge right up into the pole is at the very least push the Jet on a more Southerly track over our side, or even better if there's an amplified pattern in the Atlantic as well, we could slice the Vortex in half giving a cross polar flow before its even started to form!

     

    Would prefer for this to happen in 6 to 8 weeks time to be honest. It will mean JS to us in the next few weeks. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Would prefer for this to happen in 6 to 8 weeks time to be honest. It will mean JS to us in the next few weeks. 

    It might if those ridges mean an amplified trop pattern prevents the strat vortex exerting its influence on the trop, meaning a disconnect is maintained through late Autumn / early Winter

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    It might if those ridges mean an amplified trop pattern prevents the strat vortex exerting its influence on the trop, meaning a disconnect is maintained through late Autumn / early Winter

    Far too many cold, wet Octobers have been followed by mild, wet UK winters for my liking. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Agree about the ridge, what that does if it can ridge right up into the pole is at the very least push the Jet on a more Southerly track over our side, or even better if there's an amplified pattern in the Atlantic as well, we could slice the Vortex in half giving a cross polar flow before its even started to form!

     

    Yes we have seen the models toying with this recently(the butterfly)

    if it builds stronger,it would force the pjf further south hence the the cooler flow from the NW,but i would like to wait a bit further into the year for that,yes colder the further north you go but i don't want to upset the sourthern half of the country:)

    a ridge in the Atlantic pushing into Greenland would be good though flooding the colder air from the north penetrating south and with warmer sst's than usual would bode well for some beefy hail showers with snow over the scotish mountains.

    Knocker kindly posted this in the model tweets thread but wow that is a record breaking +ve height anomoly,i feel this is relevant to the discussion on what i was on about in my previous post^

    https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1045015726183133185/photo/1

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

    Dry summers, the ground is still deeply cracked here.

    Could lead to cold dry winters.

    Thats dry and shiver. in my oppinion.

    Look at 1976 for me in Cheshire, then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    The next 5 or 6 days will be suny and warm but after that on the ECM 00z Autumn really kicks in . 

    IMG_2596.PNG

    IMG_2597.PNG

    IMG_2598.PNG

    IMG_2599.PNG

    IMG_2600.PNG

    IMG_2601.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Having a glance at the models this morning and there does seem to be a tendency for the High Pressure over the UK bringing some nice, sunny, weather for places (especially Southern areas), to leak away somewhat to allow more of a changeable Westerly flow to take over. Although Southern areas may still cling on to some mostly bright and dry weather. 

    Examples from the 00Z GFS, ECMWF and GEM (in that order) at 192 hours:

    9713F3AE-3E82-445B-9806-DB65E650C5E0.thumb.png.f2d5512eb4d0908182d70ffbba53a399.png

    AEBB0CBB-C9B0-44C9-81CD-4B1F9CCBA5CB.thumb.png.ed53f3f6add3041d4adc1298d3cc768f.png

    9BABDB82-2BF0-4C49-AEFF-57F442AE0E9D.thumb.png.e0ba572d6bd323092afdf0a78b495c88.png

    Not all the same, but they do show Low Pressure to the North becoming a little bit more invasive for the U.K, although the 00Z ECMWF seems to be the most noticeable regarding showing a more flatter, Westerly, flow taking over for all.

    There is, quite likely, a glancing Northerly for Eastern areas towards the weekend with some rain or showers towards Northern and Eastern areas, which could be wintry over the hills.

    009DA3E4-5F75-4E28-8B1D-4320A7C78DD2.thumb.png.45670fd8a034cdc87e63e6e79486aeed.png

    0451DAD3-7700-4F87-AA57-8B6F84BD1F93.thumb.png.5740ef216bdc40cbc569104cb1a65410.png

    Something a number of models have been showing for its last few runs now. Always room for the possible brief Northerly flow to become less, or more, dominant for the U.K. Probably will just be a fleeting affair, though. 

    And just for a bit of amusement, and I know it’s the NAVGEM! ?, but its 00Z run looks as though it go on to produce a Northerly later next week as that Low to the North of the UK tries swings down South-Eastwards, possibly unleashing an Arctic blast.

    1596858A-D5E3-4B3D-BEE6-A5788DD34F52.thumb.png.bffcf7e2c817a0dfd0c3d45fd8045abd.png

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Incredibly a dominant heights out to our west and with lows to our east northerly is showing alot.

    Wouldn't take much for a cold start to winter to establish.

    Although we must take into account the hurricane season.

    Or we could have a continuation of split unsettled northern half more settled southern areas.

    But interesting to see after such a great summer whether the CET for October comes out below average perhaps setting the trend for early start to winter.

    Maybe similar to 09/10 atmospheric set up is pretty close.

    Let's hope PV stays weaker or more sustained over the Scandinavian side of the Arctic.

    And I believe it will already the models are bullish about lower heights to our east north east

    And higher to our west.

    Retrogrades could also be more common.

    been awhile for a full on neg nao and ao.

    With strong heights around Greenland.

    Although this not the case from the models at the moment.

    Still like every year I've got confidence on a more wintry winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

    While many are probably tiring of this anticylonic spell and keenly watching developments to our northwest towards the latter half of next week, I personally wouldn’t be all that surprised judging by the latest Ecm day 10 chart if we weren’t about to see the all too familiar picture of a resurgence of high pressure from the southwest bringing yet more overall settled conditions. While admittedly verification stats for day 10 charts are relatively low it’s one to watch, especially for those who dislike cold and wet October’s 

    F8C1BB09-1B45-4C84-A0C6-011CE7F19A91.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Last two ECM ensemble sets quite conclusively ending higher latitude ridging early in October

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018092700_240.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018092612_240.

    Confidence very low in the D11-D15 period, here's the current D12/D13 charts

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018092700_300.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018092612_312.

    Big change from yesterday - still amplified but much more subtle

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    I'd say that's a safe bet.

    The SLP mean looks steady out to around the 5th of October, but is all over the place after. Doesn't appear to be any imminent threat of any really deep lows barreling in though.

    gefsensmslpLondon.png

    Edited by mb018538
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