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Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS 12z the first run for a while to go all in for a southerly.  Here at T192, T240 and T300:

    image.thumb.jpg.8cc4cf4df8daba4f480bac02bc4fc1e4.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.7581cdac28401ccf3a01052fc76194fc.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.5982f0874b1a3bb4d95ce56c079a1689.jpg

    And +14 uppers into the south:

    image.thumb.jpg.dc9e8b45958d44540d91b392f4afa448.jpg

    GEM not interested, brings the high west and we end up with a NW'ly:

    image.thumb.jpg.b625b41bf885b06ce5cbfb871ad8f0b7.jpg

     

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    Just for fun at this stage but the CFS looks interesting for Boxing day  Even -16c uppers a few days later! 1962 anyone? ?

    The cooling trend has begun!.. And certainly some interesting anoms/features begining to raise as we walk slowly into the new season. The format feels somewhat like a jigsaw with missing par

    Greetings! A shiny new model thread for the new season to continue your discussions of the latest charts etc. ?? There looks to be a lot of wild weather to come in the next few days with furt

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    6 hours ago, Singularity said:

    Thanks for your thoughts @tight isobar

    I for one am really interested in what impacts the exceptional warmth in the Baltic Sea May have as the surrounding land cools. A strong anomalous heat input surrounded by a large sink. Hmm...!

    I would have thought abnormally high SST's around the Med would favour low pressure development around that region. Warmer temperatures at the surface and steeper lapse rates when cooler T850s enter the region. Could be a wet autumn for southern Europe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    20 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    While we are on the subject of seasonal models, did anyone else watch Gavsweathervids ECM update on the weekend, the H500 +ve anomaly over Scandinavia was quite staggering.

     

    Probably O/T but it is pertinent to remember that positive or negative anomalies do not necessarily translate to High and Low Pressure.  It is an anomaly from the mean climatological pressure - so higher than normal pressure to the north does not necessarily mean an area of high pressure there but rather a reduction of the usual westerly flow.  Only when anomalies are significant can we be confident of making assertions one way or the other

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    That's above average temperatures, well above.

    Was thinking the same. Probably either accidentally attached the wrong chart, or he meant cool as in ‘awesome/great’. ?‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, mulzy said:

    Probably O/T but it is pertinent to remember that positive or negative anomalies do not necessarily translate to High and Low Pressure.  It is an anomaly from the mean climatological pressure - so higher than normal pressure to the north does not necessarily mean an area of high pressure there but rather a reduction of the usual westerly flow.  Only when anomalies are significant can we be confident of making assertions one way or the other

    Yes I know, I think people are guilty of that when building their analogues on the NOAA compositing site tbh, because Greenland pressure is usually lower than other locations, you really need a large +ve anomaly to signify a high (denoted by dark orange colours not yellow), less so over Scandinavia because contrary to popular opinion, Scandi highs are not that uncommon although you still need a decent anomaly. Having said all that though, any kind of 3 month +ve anomaly to the North and -ve anomaly to the South, either Surface or 500mb, is almost guaranteed to produce some cold spells for the UK, as don't forget in an average winter you are bound to get some lengthy spells with very low heights to the North (The PV),

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    According to the GEFS 12z mean next week looks anticyclonic across most / all of the uk, generally pleasant surface conditions by day with light winds, variable cloud and sunny spells and some cold nights with a risk of mist / fog patches forming where skies clear. Beyond next week there are signs that pressure will fall across the uk and that it will turn more changeable / unsettled, especially further n / nw. 

    21_192_500mb.png

    21_240_500mb.png

    21_288_500mb.png

    21_336_500mb.png

    21_366_500mb.png

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    A mostly anticyclonic Ecm 12z but with marked variations in temperatures, cloud cover and sunshine amounts as the position / orientation of the high frequently changes, some warm days but also some chilly ones and a risk of overnight mist / fog and even slight frosts at times. The run ends with a cold Northerly gradually digging it's way south.☺?️:cold-emoji:

    144_thickuk.png

    192_thickuk.png

    240_thickuk.png

    240_mslp500.png

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Please don’t anyone suggest there may be  a possibility of some sort of northerly coming down in early October! I did a couple of days ago and got shot down in flames! Not certain by any means, but it’s certainly appeared a few times.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    46 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

    Was thinking the same. Probably either accidentally attached the wrong chart, or he meant cool as in ‘awesome/great’. ?‍♂️

    last bit aye rainbow snow, but won't happen, my guess for around 7th is a northerly

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Slow moving patterns over the UK at the moment, which way will it all drift?  GFS brings up a strong southerly. GEM and ECM favour winds from the northerly quadrant so cool.  

    Parallel FV3 sides with GFS here at T240:

    image.thumb.jpg.5f6fe68fd93444afbb3c448b20b0c630.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.692fd90b0865f7c3a716c82a5a1cd107.jpg

    I think the question of whether a cold or warm first part of October is in the balance, my view is the warmer option more likely but only slightly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    On ‎24‎/‎09‎/‎2018 at 10:41, carinthian said:

    Morning the squall line did cause some damage in parts of Germany but appears very localised. Now all Central Europe is in a much more seasonal air mass after weeks of abnormal heat. Indeed cold enough for snow falling on the mountain tops around Katschberg this morning. The forecast team this morning expect the weather to improve as the week progresses with temps around normal but have indicted in their model of quite a significant fall in pressure over the Central Med this coming weekend and may influence the position of of the large high pressure zone by then. Possible retrogressive movement of the high centre NW .If that's the case, could turn quite unsettled  in parts of mainland Europe but unlikely to affect the British Isles in the medium term, at least, but something of interest.

    C

    C

    42341871_2346302728926148_1294986743447027712_o.jpg

    42474874_2346302778926143_942597166575124480_n.jpg

    Some models this evening firming up on a tropical type cyclone to form on Friday over the Ionain Sea with wind gusts up 145km/h on its SW quadrant.  Next week a general fall of pressure over mainland Europe now showing with some unsettled conditions moving slowly north and west with retrogressive feature of the high. Should get an update tomorrow morning.

    C

    u-componentofwindgusthei.jpg-nggid045039-ngg0dyn-1000x600x100-00f0w010c010r110f110r010t010.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    Slow moving patterns over the UK at the moment, which way will it all drift?  GFS brings up a strong southerly. GEM and ECM favour winds from the northerly quadrant so cool.  

    Parallel FV3 sides with GFS here at T240:

    image.thumb.jpg.5f6fe68fd93444afbb3c448b20b0c630.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.692fd90b0865f7c3a716c82a5a1cd107.jpg

    I think the question of whether a cold or warm first part of October is in the balance, my view is the warmer option more likely but only slightly.

    Warm for me Mike....change around midmonth to maybe more normal but wetter and more unsettled

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley, Kent
  • Location: Bexley, Kent

    BCC updated its long range model overnight and showing the same sort of change in pattern mid-month as CFS /EC46

    md2018096nh_h5d2_3.thumb.gif.f0de5dd60e71d36e19c2be1609087e6d.gifec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018092400_672.thumb.png.6f3497bc195349386ac2a72d9ef2bc4e.png1077729217_cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_2(1).thumb.png.448ddc2b49a6ba881da648c836556a89.png

    EPS clusters are showing the change showing up high pressure in the majority at 240 hours:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018092512_240.thumb.png.8895611c2af4540863752280c061a496.png

    but in a majority by the end of the run

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018092512_360.thumb.png.2301d31a1d2b09233a87cda5810568f7.png

    Things certainly to be firming up on a pattern change past the first 10 days or so of October. 

    Edited by Sardonixs
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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    10 hours ago, carinthian said:

    Some models this evening firming up on a tropical type cyclone to form on Friday over the Ionain Sea with wind gusts up 145km/h on its SW quadrant.  Next week a general fall of pressure over mainland Europe now showing with some unsettled conditions moving slowly north and west with retrogressive feature of the high. Should get an update tomorrow morning.

    C

    u-componentofwindgusthei.jpg-nggid045039-ngg0dyn-1000x600x100-00f0w010c010r110f110r010t010.jpg

    The latest view from here  continues to support a general fall of pressure over Europe next week as now being shown on latest ECM charts. Some strong upper winds in a developing cyclonic circulation. Maybe SE England getting some rain or showers by midweek in the NEly flow for a time. Medium term ECM charts below.

     

    ECM101-144.gif

    ECM4-168.gif

    ECMOPEU00_168_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Potent E'ly shoeing late October on CFS, it just shows you what can happen even out of season if you drop a trough even remotely far south enough in Europe first, we've had Easterlies in late Nov before with uppers above 0, for the very reason that the continent hadn't been cooled first.

    cfsnh-2-858_gfn0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Another nice cold shot showing on the Gfs 6z operational..hope something like this happens, a very early taste of wintry feeling weather would be most welcome..by me anyway!☺:cold-emoji::D

    06_324_mslp500.png

    06_324_ukthickness850.png

    06_324_preciptype.png

    06_324_uk2mtmp.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    Models seem to have taken a turn for the colder today in the medium range timeframe. The northerly for early next week looks distinctively chilly for early October if we go by the 00z's.

    ECMOPEU00_144_2.png GFSOPEU00_132_2.png UKMOPEU00_120_1.png

    It looks relatively dry though that is the main thing and brief although the ECM has us in chillier air a tad bit longer, I don't mind that but I would prefer the less colder weather to go through the whole weekend. Another nice day of fishing on Sunday would be grand.

    The GFS 06Z has the high loitering around the UK but interestingly Hurricane Leslie gets cut off again which may lead to retrogression further down the line if it does.

    GFSOPEU06_192_1.png

    I'd be more then happy with that, but when the clock goes back an hour, the cold ramping switch will be on :cold:

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Updated 12z GFS looks to be following the ECM 00z with a sharper Northerly - could see some snow showers to lower levels in the North at the start of Next week...

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    deep FI, 3 months too late for summer fans, only showing 16 degrees here? suppose need winds more SSW'ly for a 25 degrees? not SSE'ly, 324 better

    Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image

    Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    2 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    I'd be more then happy with that, but when the clock goes back an hour, the cold ramping switch will be on 

    Yes the clocks changing is the point that I start looking for cold rather than warm - location is an issue, I can quite see why those significantly further north look for the cold scenarios earlier!

    The drift of the high west or east in the models is still fascinating if slow moving.  All modes drag it west initially but then the GEM at T240 has it close to the UK but slightly west:

    image.thumb.jpg.bc72bd254090d52884c469266224a92e.jpg

    GFS 12z is more interesting, with a drift to the east at T192, back just west T240, and then going (like yesterday's) for the full on southerly at T288:

    image.thumb.jpg.2a1baade8d1721449d07e4c4e34df1ef.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.368b0669f63120ea1099389cd9758e88.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.49fcbd0da36ba676105444b0e7f70aa3.jpg

    850s at that point here:

    image.thumb.jpg.a3d1094caf6fae3198ccddf97776c7f7.jpg

    Edit, GFS T336:

    image.thumb.jpg.6dc50b0bf2d83c1ab2d3f8571e4e735a.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.08f90bd9e5b95ace911c9311fd068ef9.jpg

    I think this is a plausible run and the southerly is one to watch on subsequent runs.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    @Mike Poole,the gfs has been showing that evolution/scenario a few times but the gfs/p has other ideas though starts fine up to day nine then a couple of cool plungers from the N/NW  from day ten onwards with the -4 isotherm getting down towards S'n midlands and SW england

    AT 192

    gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.2d38147f9adc3c47b7c5caac36a5048b.png

    then this after day ten at 264 with the high starting to pull west

    gfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.4769390f2fe9bccfa7190c76d8ace91c.pnggfsnh-1-264.thumb.png.1862fd4a2cdceddbe887919146eaf415.png

    then at the end of the run,we have this with the high fully retrogressed to southern Greenland:cold:

    gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.1659e745441817b2c3a966e5d98303a4.pnggfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.8507b7ce68f3e120bd38cfaed1dcae41.png

    here is the animated run,looks lovely doesn't it:D

    tempresult_qsw4.thumb.gif.d39dbb5f81a365fb03e2634ef8b0f7bd.gif

    ok it won't come off but it is something to talk about,in the meantime,what a cracking day it has been today☀️:)

     

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    spell check
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    ^^

    I keep forgetting about the parallel run (doesn't really matter yet), just wondering when it goes GFS operational, or do we have a whole winter of it? it would be a good reference point if there's some sort of model stand off in the run up to an Easterly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    ^^

    I keep forgetting about the parallel run (doesn't really matter yet), just wondering when it goes GFS operational, or do we have a whole winter of it? it would be a good reference point if there's some sort of model stand off in the run up to an Easterly.

    Is it next April or have i got my wires crossed somewhere?

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    • Week Ahead: Bimbling lows keeping the weather unsettled, showery and cool

      Low pressure is going to keep doing its thing during the upcoming week, rolling in from the Atlantic, then hanging around to bring days of sunshine and showers with occasional longer spells of rain. Read the full update here

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