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Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

I know we should never wish time away etc, but honestly, hurry up October! I just want to get into winter :-) 

That said, for the first time since last March (did that really happen!? :cold:) I found myself back looking at the charts today. I have been keeping an eye on the teleconnections over the past few weeks but today is the first time I’d had a good perusal of all the charts, FI and all. Whilst it’s nice to see, it is perhaps not too surprising to see potential building of a mid Atlantic high, come end of month. I think this is quite a probable outcome. A full on Arctic northerly blast may be a bit of a long shot, but has to be a contender. More likely a NNW, snow on the hills and feeling noticeably cold everywhere. I’d take that for an opener to proceedings.

Even if it fades into obscurity, I suspect further potential won’t be too far away. Thinking back to most of the past few years and November going into December has seemingly always flattered to deceive. There has been loads of dream Synoptics on offer but ultimately they came to very little. Many this year we will get ‘lucky’? I do think early-mid winter this year could be quite fun. 

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
56 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, and if you look at the JMA 12z at just T192, this may be quite an extreme run, but entirely possible at this range:

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I would find it very fitting if 2018, the year with no spring, was also the year with no Autumn,and whilst acknowledging that this couldn't happen at current mid season because of the warmth of the continent, I still think a sudden flip to cold is very possible, I think we'll have to wait until November though.  Maybe northern folks might get a taste earlier, I guess.  Very interesting times ahead for sure.

I totally agree with this.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Will let you off this time. (afterall it’s not like the thread got completely derailed or anything). 

For the sake of it, just a quick look at the 8 to 14 day 500mb mean chart from the NOAA and it seems to suggest heights building in the Atlantic with a mean West-North-West upper flow over the U.K.

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Could do with more amplification of the mean upper flow in the Atlantic along with the positive anomalies backing slightly further West to increase confidence of some colder, more unsettled, conditions from the North. But since it’s an average of days 8 to 14, don’t think it would be totally unfeasible for a day or two of chillier (and perhaps more cyclonic) conditions to come from more of a direct North-Westerly or Northerly direction. Especially for Northern areas of the U.K.

Not often one sees such a +ve anomaly, as DRL suggests just where the surface ridge ends up will govern the overall low level temperatures

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Note on that 8/14 day naefs anomaly (Fits well with eps) the gulf Alaska low, west N American ridge and east n American trough (all upper features) - this is apparently what the first part of winter holds upstream - our side of the Atlantic, as always, more difficult to predict! 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

When you thought we were done with the warmth.....ukmo, ecm and gem all have 850s above 12c in places next Sunday. Pretty amazing the weather this year, the cold just hasn’t  wanted to know.....so far.

the ensemble mean drops below 0c at the end of the month. So those of you wishing the mildness will end, you may get your wish very soon!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Profiles going forwards that are perfectly aligned both time-wise and synopticaly !!

The pv profiles continue to reflect the early doorway to winter exactions-with waa inject putting immense pressure on the 'wanting of formation'-yet non gain of any major purpose.

Taking the supposed momentum' into account....one can only see more positive effects as we draw ever further on!...

With ridging continuing to punch and prod-into the polar regions at every given angle.

Given the availible outs...and the orientation of the meandering azores/mid atlanic HP-and all others factored in....a cold weather fan should be filled with mass optimism...even @this early...yet crucial stage.

And just for mid range scope...the ens continue with there take....and the mean continues in its quest to notch down late month...and drag many members with it !!!..

Major interst at the northern hem...and surrounding!!!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Another Gfs run showing an Arctic blast with snow, ice and frosts towards the end of october..hope the 00z is right!!❄️❄️☃️..Great model watching!

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Indeed Frosty, there is some good signal from the models  for retrogression of our HP yo bring a northerly blast backend of the month.  I think this will continue to fruition..and bring the first snows to Scotland and peaks of Northern England..... this to take us into Nov.....Looking forward to that

 

BFTP

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Could we see a cold spell with a risk of snow before november?...looking at the GEFS 00z..There is potential!❄️⛄

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
12 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

What's all this talk of no Autumn about. The past couple of days have been pretty wet and windy here. Sure Wednesday was pleasant enough but since then it has felt pretty Autumnal to me. 

Saturday was windy for most but far from autumnal- even when it was raining here in the morning it still felt warm and humid and almost tropical. 22C at Birmingham Airport as well which is certainly not a typical autumn temp. Friday was also in the high teens at least for most of England.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
39 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Saturday was windy for most but far from autumnal- even when it was raining here in the morning it still felt warm and humid and almost tropical. 22C at Birmingham Airport as well which is certainly not a typical autumn temp. Friday was also in the high teens at least for most of England.

Yes, could well be no autumn if models are correct, summer (the aforementioned 22c) straight into snow within a couple of weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
40 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Saturday was windy for most but far from autumnal- even when it was raining here in the morning it still felt warm and humid and almost tropical. 22C at Birmingham Airport as well which is certainly not a typical autumn temp. Friday was also in the high teens at least for most of England.

Ok, so it's been like a rubbish Summer at best. To be fair for the most part temperatures have been above average but when the man on the street thinks of summery conditions they think of bright sunny and warm days. Besides Autumn is really just a transitory season between the big 2, which in theory can contain aspects of either of the 2 main ones and we're only just now roughly half way through that transitory stage so summerish temps should hardly be surprising (even if a little uncommon) by now.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Another Gfs run showing a cold shot during late october, I'm starting to think this could happen!.. at this range it's all about the trend, the severity and longevity (should it happen) won't be known for a while but obviously, something potent similar to the 0z run would suit me fine!:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

So picking up on this possible switch to colder conditions at the end of the month. A couple of days ago, this switch was advertised as due between 22nd October and 27th October, with heights retreating west and troughing becoming established to the NE.

If we look at today's clusters for the 25th October:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018101500_240.

we see that low heights to the east is still on, but heights to the west look a bit closer to the UK.

However, by the 27th:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018101500_288.

the general trend of heights withdrawing west is still there.

And by the end of the month:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018101500_348.

heights well out of the way, troughing to the NE = lots of possibilities for a NWly or Nly input as November begins.

So the cool-down still showing on the ensembles - but - slightly delayed. The "delay" word is a worry for early-season coldies, because a "delayed" pattern change can either mean exactly that, or it sometimes means a general misreading of the situation by the models, and in fact the 25th October chart could be repeated once again.

Time will tell!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Certainly the ensembles and models didn't pick this up too well...

Cluster chart for sunday:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018101500_144.

5 days ago no real indication of any height rises into the weekend, let alone strong ones!

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018101012_240.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Though I'm nae looking forward to anything cold, this early in the season, the upcoming abrupt switch (if indeed it happens like that) from summer to winter is interesting...? I know the sample size so far is somewhat small (last March!?:yahoo:)  but might the solar min be affecting things, especially around the equinoxes?

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking through the GEFS 6z there are signs we could see an early taste of winter before the end of this month..There are quite a few arctic incursions and near misses showing up (this is just a small sample)..wish we could just fast forward through the boring benign stuff and get to the potential goodies!!..hopefully a loooong winter to come!!☺❄❄❄❄️:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just when I've been talking up the chances of an end of october Northerly based on recent gfs runs..the 12z gives us a southerly instead!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

564 line clipping the south coast and nearly into November? Why not considering how this summer has gone. In all likelihood a huge warm outlier.

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

564 line clipping the south coast and nearly into November? Why not considering how this summer has gone. In all likelihood a huge warm outlier.

At one point the control and operational are that far apart they might as well be from different continents (problems attaching picture) 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Quite right - op is miles a warm outlier. +10c, the mean is at 0, and the control is -5. Poles apart.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

I'm liking the day 10 ECM tonight . The high pulling out west allowing quite chilly air in , especially up north and in the east . That would feel like winter . Would love to of seen the day 11 chart . 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Wow the weekend looks summery again on the Ecm 12z..high pressure and very warm for the time of year..incredible autumn this is turning into!

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Edited by Frosty.
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