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Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

this too

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Yes, I could have mentioned loads, but I thought my first port of call would be early nineties, I remember a slew of them there, despite the fact that that era is always dubbed ' the gateway to climate change having a tangible effect on UK weather' and certainly also contained some stormy weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, I could have mentioned loads, but I thought my first port of call would be early nineties, I remember a slew of them there, despite the fact that that era is always dubbed ' the gateway to climate change having a tangible effect on UK weather' and certainly also contained some stormy weather.

Ay, especially remember this spell though, 3-4 minus 10 nights on the trot, remember it also of course as LW radio died

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
42 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

lots of cold GEFS members from a N or NW direction.

The GEFS 6z mean clearly shows this, really strong support currently for a cold plunge from a polar / arctic maritime source towards the end of october..looking at the postage stamps..some snow too, especially for the north...maybe some wintry weather before november could be ours!!:cold-emoji:❄️☃️❄❄

21_384_500mb.png

snow_384_ps_slp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

With a 552 DM line straddling half way up the country I am not sure why, away from Scottish mountains quite such a lot seems to be suggested by one or two posters?

Lots of fun for the coldies of course to be looking way ahead but it is very early for any real chance away from the far north and Scottish mountains. Just my view, open to question of course!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
27 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

With a 552 DM line straddling half way up the country I am not sure why, away from Scottish mountains quite such a lot seems to be suggested by one or two posters?

Lots of fun for the coldies of course to be looking way ahead but it is very early for any real chance away from the far north and Scottish mountains. Just my view, open to question of course!

There was snow in SE England..among plenty of other places in late october 2008...if you were referring to my post (s) all i'm saying is the Gfs has been indicating a cold shot from the arctic around the last few days of october on and off for a while now and the GEFS 6z mean supports it too..following all the record warmth this autumn so far, I think it would be very nice for coldies to get a very early taste of winter!☺

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

With a 552 DM line straddling half way up the country I am not sure why, away from Scottish mountains quite such a lot seems to be suggested by one or two posters?

Lots of fun for the coldies of course to be looking way ahead but it is very early for any real chance away from the far north and Scottish mountains. Just my view, open to question of course!

Because on some GEFS members there is heights touching nearly as low as 520dam in Northern areas with SLP over 1000mb.

gensnh-0-1-324_kpt0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

For most the wishbone effect would render any snow unlikely but possible to get a snow shower from that in Aberdeen, Newcastle, Norfolk maybe.

At any rate, many of us just want the cold that would acompany.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The coldie in me is really hoping for a very cold shot at the end of october and the Gfs 12z operational has a go but doesn't quite deliver on this run but the general trend is still encouraging if it's colder more seasonal weather you're looking for now.☺

12_219_preciptype.png

12_300_preciptype.png

12_312_uk2mtmp.png

12_312_mslp850.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Defined ridge on the mean in FI now, that would be a respectable chart in January, im not sure how people can interpret it in any other way as a very strong signal for cold, -4c into Scotland on the MEAN at 300+ hours, also daytime max temps on the LONDON ECM graph not getting above 10c on the mean of a 51 member suite in FI.

gensnh-21-1-324_liu5.png

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Rain has eased across England this evening I recieved 30mm but another pulse of rain moves north into the south during the early hours giving quite a wet morning tomorrow with an additional 10 to 20mm in a few places through central/southern England before fizzling out during the afternoon.

Arpege..

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DWD Icon..

F202F5D3-ED14-4AEF-9471-D11C7787999D.thumb.png.2fdb804207c76b5d75c3a92ce42ca0a0.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean indicates a colder and unsettled late october with a NW'ly / N'ly airflow so there could be a wintry flavour to our weather before november!☺☃️ 

GFSAVGEU12_312_1.png

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GFSAVGEU12_378_34.png

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 12z mean indicates a colder and unsettled late october with a NW'ly / N'ly airflow so there could be a wintry flavour to our weather before november!☺☃️ 

GFSAVGEU12_312_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_312_34.png

GFSAVGEU12_336_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_360_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_378_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_378_34.png

That would be very welcome by me!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking through the GEFS 12z postage stamps..some of them look on the wintry side with a risk of frosts / ice and snow towards the end of october..this would be very good news to my fellow coldies!:cold:❄️

snow_294_ps_slp.png

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850temp_336_ps_slp.png

snow_342_ps_slp.png

2m_maxtemp_360_ps_slp.png

850temp_384_ps_slp.png

2m_maxtemp_384_ps_slp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Most of the Ecm 12z for most of the uk looks anticyclonic with some warm days for the time of year but also some cooler / colder days and nights as the position / orientation of the high changes.

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240_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Leaving cloud cuckoo land to one side for a moment, the ECM 12z actually has some pleasant mid-Autumn weather, here with high pressure very much in charge at T144, with warm air advected towards the UK:

image.thumb.jpg.b15da7b4974b4b5d03322aabab48dcff.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.6984a9f4c712122bbbe07667d1117066.jpg

Obviously confidence reduces later on, but the high pressure dominance remains with the high drifting further west, but still warm air for the south at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.ea1ca1316dab1060eaba9311aeae7133.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.427229ffb99893279a0f46be8066671f.jpg

Looks we'll get to the last week of October with benign weather with above average temperatures for much of the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

Everybody. This is the model output discussion which is for discussion about model outputs. No need to be talking about golf on here, do that somewhere else!

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Indeed! Let’s get back on topic please some of you! Tar.

Otherwise, you may end up with a flying golf ball heading towards you... 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Removed some emojis - wern’t displaying properly
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

It was a joke!   anyway the ECM is none to shabby, doesn't look like a N'ly would happen, doesn't look quite right to me and the flow would be cut off, however, its not a million miles away and moving towards the GEFS suite solution.

ECH1-240_dgs8.GIF

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is strongly influenced by high pressure / ridging so predominantly fine weather but if the high drifts far enough west into the atlantic it would open the door to something colder and more unsettled..possibly even wintry from the NW or N towards the end of october.

EDM1-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It was a joke! 

Will let you off this time. (afterall it’s not like the thread got completely derailed or anything). 

For the sake of it, just a quick look at the 8 to 14 day 500mb mean chart from the NOAA and it seems to suggest heights building in the Atlantic with a mean West-North-West upper flow over the U.K.

517DADC6-1909-4E8C-9F52-D91C1355F773.thumb.gif.cb75337f8339c039a6859370401f097b.gif

Could do with more amplification of the mean upper flow in the Atlantic along with the positive anomalies backing slightly further West to increase confidence of some colder, more unsettled, conditions from the North. But since it’s an average of days 8 to 14, don’t think it would be totally unfeasible for a day or two of chillier (and perhaps more cyclonic) conditions to come from more of a direct North-Westerly or Northerly direction. Especially for Northern areas of the U.K.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
8 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Will let you off this time. (afterall it’s not like the thread got completely derailed or anything). 

For the sake of it, just a quick look at the 8 to 14 day 500mb mean chart from the NOAA and it seems to suggest heights building in the Atlantic with a mean West-North-West upper flow over the U.K.

Could do with more amplification of the mean upper flow in the Atlantic along with the positive anomalies backing slightly further West to increase confidence of some colder, more unsettled, conditions from the North. But since it’s an average of days 8 to 14, don’t think it would be totally unfeasible for a day or two of chillier (and perhaps more cyclonic) conditions to come from more of a direct North-Westerly or Northerly direction. Especially for Northern areas of the U.K.

Yes, and if you look at the JMA 12z at just T192, this may be quite an extreme run, but entirely possible at this range:

image.thumb.jpg.65fc4e232860f4a6259075a03f25160c.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.b2977bb247a0df0a87db56f4ccf19490.jpg

I would find it very fitting if 2018, the year with no spring, was also the year with no Autumn,and whilst acknowledging that this couldn't happen at current mid season because of the warmth of the continent, I still think a sudden flip to cold is very possible, I think we'll have to wait until November though.  Maybe northern folks might get a taste earlier, I guess.  Very interesting times ahead for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Leaving cloud cuckoo land to one side for a moment, the ECM 12z actually has some pleasant mid-Autumn weather, here with high pressure very much in charge at T144, with warm air advected towards the UK:

image.thumb.jpg.b15da7b4974b4b5d03322aabab48dcff.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.6984a9f4c712122bbbe07667d1117066.jpg

Obviously confidence reduces later on, but the high pressure dominance remains with the high drifting further west, but still warm air for the south at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.ea1ca1316dab1060eaba9311aeae7133.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.427229ffb99893279a0f46be8066671f.jpg

Looks we'll get to the last week of October with benign weather with above average temperatures for much of the UK.

That high needs watching for D10. Further west, cold from the north could get in. Further east, fog becomes a threat and depressed daytime temps. Right where it is, a streak of temporary warmth can sneak in. 

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

What's all this talk of no Autumn about. The past couple of days have been pretty wet and windy here. Sure Wednesday was pleasant enough but since then it has felt pretty Autumnal to me. 

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