Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Well it seems like it’s the turn of central southern and eastern England tomorrow to experience some very wet weather although not anywhere near as bad as it has so far been in the west. 

This is what the dwd is showing accumulation wise by the time the rain’s cleared through by Monday..

AB615D92-2340-4EAA-9278-21AF590E906C.thumb.png.c43738dbb480f68a264ecae48a64665e.png

A line roughly though Swindon to Lincolnshire getting around 30 to 50mm locally more? 

The sheer persistence is of some note this is the arpege below from 6am tomorrow morning..

6B9A5FF9-0602-4116-9544-E57C2C2A2828.thumb.png.46c38f8d9898ca29c7b7acc419309bf6.png

Rain is shown to be falling across wales which of course don’t need It  along with the southwest just fringing into southern parts then fast forward to 2am Monday morning and this is the position..

361C8A39-9C11-4A35-B134-2FF72BAA704F.thumb.png.42e30c56ee505d97e3b9a8a4b6ec10ee.png

it’s still raining if the arpege is right then many places through central southern and southeastern England would see potentially 12 -18 hours of heavy rain which could lead to large accumulations though not expected to bring any real flooding problems as these areas Have been pretty dry for a while.

so potentially welcome rain albeit a lot of for southern and eastern parts as for wales and SouthWest England? Definitely not welcome ofcourse this is just one model output details can and will change I will update later today.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational it's not bad at all after the next few days, high pressure / ridging becomes more influential next week, especially further south bringing a predominantly fine spell with just a little rain, mostly further north. There is a colder showery NW'ly flow during late october but overall it's a decent outlook for most of the uk..according to this run!☺

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

That Azores high r ally doesn’t want to give in this year! Amazing how much influence it has had over our weather. 

After thinking the last few days was the last hurrah of summer, there is a growing trend to potentially bring in another very warm day October next weekend, with the ensemble mean around 10c again, before we climb back down to the average. Some colder runs appearing in the last week of the month too for the coldies!

Edited by mb018538
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational it's not bad at all after the next few days, high pressure / ridging becomes more influential next week, especially further south bringing a predominantly fine spell with just a little rain, mostly further north. There is a colder showery NW'ly flow during late october but overall it's a decent outlook for most of the uk..according to this run!☺

If the 'next' forecast spell of much colder, showery weather goes the same way as most of its predecessors, it won't materialise at all. Fingers crossed!:good:

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I take it surely you mean London and not Newcastle.

Yes! 

Mildenhall now an incredible 26C. Still an hour or two to go higher! 

Edited by Man With Beard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, following a changeable spell out to next midweek, there are then signs that high pressure could build in across southern uk with a spell of predominantly settled weather further south but then towards the end of october, the postage stamps show we can't rule out the possibility of a cold shot from the NW / N with a risk of snow on northern high ground.☺❄️

21_132_500mb.png

21_156_500mb.png

21_180_500mb.png

21_204_500mb.png

21_228_500mb.png

21_252_500mb.png

snow_324_ps_slp.png

850tempuk_324_ps_slp.png

Edited by Frosty.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

nice jma bit far out and yesterdays.

but would be nice to see some of the arctic this winter.

stormy and wet will do for now1785808195_bonusoctoberchart2018.thumb.gif.14f6dbeb39484fdbb521f4e60963f2f1.gif

Edited by MR EXTREMES
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

12z continuing to show the trend for high pressure to be the controlling feature - not necessarily over the UK, but close enough to keep things settled on the whole.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Another Gfs run showing an arctic shot towards the end of october..could some of us see snow before november?..don't rule it out!❄️☃️

12_336_mslp850.png

12_336_preciptype.png

12_348_ukthickness850.png

12_348_mslp850.png

12_360_preciptype.png

12_360_ukthickness850.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

12z continuing to show the trend for high pressure to be the controlling feature - not necessarily over the UK, but close enough to keep things settled on the whole.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well after the dreadful floods here in Wales it does at least look like improving from tomorrow afternoon. Later on the GFS12z, the high is expected to finally flatten to the east and ends up south of the U.K. although it could open the door to further Atlantic storms (with a large low towards the North Pole so a westerly pattern) they should at least be able to clear the rain through much quicker instead of getting stuck in the same areas for days like Callum has done resulting in less rainfall totals decreasing the risk of flooding somewhat. 

Stay safe everyone / cadwch yn ddiogel pawb 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Ecm 12z we may not be finished with unseasonable warmth yet, next saturday looks potentially very warm again depending on sunshine amounts but then a cold blast glancing blow for the N / E and beyond day 10 perhaps a more widespread polar maritime shot would sweep down across the uk from the NW.

168_mslp850.png

168_thickuk.png

216_mslp500.png

216_thickuk.png

240_mslp500.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

I know we normally look forward on here, but I just want to give a shout-out to the GFS. It's often mocked in here, but it pretty much nailed the warmth of this week from way out. Virtually every single one of its runs since T336 had this period in the low to mid 20s. Hats off! 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
56 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I know we normally look forward on here, but I just want to give a shout-out to the GFS. It's often mocked in here, but it pretty much nailed the warmth of this week from way out. Virtually every single one of its runs since T336 had this period in the low to mid 20s. Hats off! 

Yes agree completely GFS has been showing this for ages I remember commenting that not much had to change on GFS output to produce something not dissimilar to Oct 2011, and that was many days ago, and it broadly has, later in month; no records broken to my knowledge but it's come close.  

Where now? 

GFS 18z shows the settled weather back and pretty warm uppers as far as T168:

image.thumb.jpg.bc65a517bee78334d14e8d543b0644d0.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.7baa82d707d690873681e7d2e7a54905.jpg

One final taste of warmth?

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes agree completely GFS has been showing this for ages I remember commenting that not much had to change on GFS output to produce something not dissimilar to Oct 2011, and that was many days ago, and it broadly has, later in month; no records broken to my knowledge but it's come close.  

Where now? 

GFS 18z shows the settled weather back and pretty warm uppers as far as T168:

 

One final taste of warmth?

 

Possibly, but soon cold afterwards with mid Atlantic high.

gensnh-21-1-324_sxt4.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

So now the GFS is just toying with us, the 0Z going for the undercut right at the end of the run. 

gfsnh-0-384.png

The "snow row" on the GFS Ensembles diagrams now showing a 5-10% chance of snow for my location from 27th onwards. Way way out in FI I know but baby steps. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Morning, a very wet start to today across many central southern areas by mid - morning the models show particularly heavy rain through central parts denoted by the yellow shading..

Arome..

59581D15-A157-4660-9709-AA3A7598C307.thumb.png.8a4ad174afde0a3f0075da128d4cba1c.png

Arpege..

7E2EDC8C-E0B5-427C-B03D-F73B197435CA.thumb.png.025d81e1c593915163f5852a7abd92ca.png

This persisting all day for some with as much as 40 to 60mm being progged in a few locations.

858BA471-A88A-49F5-90A5-5EC79B45664A.thumb.png.6e9653387b46cea1a53b951bf4300389.png

easing for a time this evening.

A7B6B87F-8CF8-4C60-ACBA-E33F326896F9.thumb.png.8339181805096521b9b2a40cf144d8eb.png

before a renewed burst of heavy rain pushes northwards during tonight into tomorrow morning then fizzling out in the afternoon.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
10 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Let's hope the Gfs is right about an Arctic blast at the end of October and then it will be Hats on..and scarf..and gloves!:D:cold:❄️

Let's hope is right because the latest from the Ecm to me doesn't look very encouraging for Arctic blasts of any nature with a great big anticyclone parked right over us. Admittedly from this may come a few chilly nights depending on cloud cover but daytime temps would be on the mild side to say the least. I'm thinking we may have to sit this one out and be very patient.:lazy: 

ecm 22.PNG

ecm 23.PNG

ecm 24.PNG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

After a very unsettled period bringing some of the worst flooding in 30 years to some areas, ECM shows it settling down very nicely with frost and fog starting to dominate more

Pleasant enough by early afternoons in any sunshine but where cloud & fog were to linger temps would really struggle

ECMOPEU00_96_1.thumb.png.a16818eb667f0084ceae7cdd2cd5f6da.pngECMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.ec1c4b7a1d540b365a2bc8325d1d2068.pngECMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.17190f6d32f90b91a8337c07a64d3b29.pngECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.06fa29b341b85e25abddb9b27011fd06.png

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

After a very unsettled period bringing some of the worst flooding in 30 years to some areas, ECM shows it settling down very nicely with frost and fog starting to dominate more

Pleasant enough by early afternoons in any sunshine but where cloud & fog were to linger temps would really struggle

ECMOPEU00_96_1.thumb.png.a16818eb667f0084ceae7cdd2cd5f6da.pngECMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.ec1c4b7a1d540b365a2bc8325d1d2068.pngECMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.17190f6d32f90b91a8337c07a64d3b29.pngECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.06fa29b341b85e25abddb9b27011fd06.png

I can't see frost and fog being much of an issue with this anticyclone, moreover if it turns out to be a cloudy high. As ever, only time will tell...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

I can't see frost and fog being much of an issue with this anticyclone, moreover if it turns out to be a cloudy high. As ever, only time will tell...

Yes, these are the position of highs you need for frost and fog to become a serious issue.

archivesnh-1992-12-26-12-0.pngarchivesnh-1991-12-5-12-0.pngarchivesnh-1992-1-13-0-0.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Screenshot_2018-10-14-09-54-51.thumb.png.7fc257c227feadca57bce684080769ae.pngAutumn begining to tighten its grip...

The ens clearly of indication to a more classic mobile...@time PM score...highlighted via the global snaps!

 

Also things @the pole are of interest...as the vortex has issue with formation and stick @its home bay-massing @ north-western most arctic foundation!!..

The mid latts are on wind down...and the larger n-hem views are promising early on.

And the momentumn-regarding probable block formats are also nicely positioned atm....

Looking forwards to the next fortnight...as winter slowly gains in evolution....and output starts its seasonal decipher....proper !!!

 

Screenshot_2018-10-14-09-55-49.png

Screenshot_2018-10-14-09-54-31.png

Screenshot_2018-10-14-09-54-51.png

MT8_London_ens (7).png

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

As  @tight isobar has shown in the above post and quite a few projections ( below chart ) now showing a colder phase by the last days of this month. Of course in forecast terms still a long way off but a interesting update this morning received for resort planners from our portal service have already given a fairly strong signal to expect summer to winter condition by the end of the month. Will keep you updated after tomorrows chat to obtain further thoughts from a foreign field.

C

2119477891_MT8_London_ens(7).png.8f3daec48704a4ae94f2899f36cf1dbd.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, these are the position of highs you need for frost and fog to become a serious issue.

archivesnh-1992-12-26-12-0.pngarchivesnh-1991-12-5-12-0.pngarchivesnh-1992-1-13-0-0.png

this too

archives-2002-1-1-0-0.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...