Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

[Polar Maritime]

Just discussion on the Model Outputs please, Thanks.

[Frosty.]

A much more settled look to the Gfs 6z operational with lots of high pressure / azores ridging, it's not really until the end of the run when there is signs of change..so, on this run there would be predominantly fine conditions with variable cloud amounts and pleasant sunny spells and some cold nights with a risk of mist / fog and frosts.

[Jordan S]

The rain for Sunday may be more of a feature than previously thought for England ? This chart is just showing the potential.

 

[Tim Bland]

Awful 06z gfs for cold prospects long term. Very different to previous few runs. Let’s hope it’s an outlier ! 

 

[Man With Beard]

Big change coming according to EC mid-range ensembles this morning - note how the purples (and therefore likely position of troughing) transfer from west to east between 21st October and 26th October:

  

Gate to cooler weather opened!

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

A much more settled look to the Gfs 6z operational with lots of high pressure / azores ridging, it's not really until the end of the run when there is signs of change..so, on this run there would be predominantly fine conditions with variable cloud amounts and pleasant sunny spells and some cold nights with a risk of mist / fog and frosts.

The GEFS 6z mean also indicates increasing high pressure / ridge influence next week and beyond, especially further south, not looking anything like as unsettled as recent runs showed!☺

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 6z mean also indicates increasing high pressure / ridge influence next week and beyond, especially further south, not looking anything like as unsettled as recent runs showed!☺

I’m personally getting fed up with this mostly settled warm weather hopefully something more definitively seasonal in the next couple of weeks

[feb1991blizzard]

5 hours ago, coldwinter said:

Could i have the link for the 46  dayer?  i have lost mine.

Thank you.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/10/11/00/ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom.html

[Derecho]

8 hours ago, tinybill said:

i  know it will not happen   and its fantasy  world how long before  its over the  papers

I can imagine the headlines now 

From warmer than AFRICA to colder then GREENLAND! ICE WAVE set to hit to UK and last for 10 WEEKS!

Hoping for some settled weather for my week off but I don't think I've seen so much uncertainty in the short range with hurricane Leslie playing havoc with the models. Sunday could be a total right off and I'm worried monday may not be so settled now thanks to the low on the GFS that tracks through the north sea.

Even the location of the rain band tomorrow remains uncertain, will it stay dry in the NE? Forecasts are differing and its hard to make a call. There could also be some exceptionally high minima this evening, with GFS suggesting no lower then 18C in Hull this evening!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational is neither settled nor unsettled..it's changeable with some fine pleasant high pressure / ridging interspersed with some low pressure bringing rain, cold enough at times for a risk of snow on the scottish mountains and some overnight frosts with mist / fog patches during the quieter spells.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Quite like the GFS 12z run with some crisp mornings coming up in between weather systems

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean indicates a generally changeable outlook but on balance, the south has more high than low pressure, ergo more in the way of decent pleasant spells across southern uk between occasional atlantic systems with the north tending to catch most of the rain / wind but even the north having some fine weather at times. There would be some cold nights with a risk of frost, mist and fog patches during the quieter spells but with pleasant sunny spells where it clears up.

[mb018538]

ECM also keeping most of the trouble away to the north of the UK, with ridges of higher pressure keeping things relatively quiet for most. Certainly not looking as threatening as it did a couple of days back.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates a north / south split developing with most of the unsettled weather across northern uk and the best chance of fine spells further south.

[Jordan S]

42 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates a north / south split developing with most of the unsettled weather across northern uk and the best chance of fine spells further south.

How often have we seen that pattern haha oh well hopefully something will crop up.

[feb1991blizzard]

Ens suites falling off a cliff.

[shaky]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ens suites falling off a cliff.

Good for cold?!!crazy warm here this morning!!

[Paul_1978]

20 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Awful 06z gfs for cold prospects long term. Very different to previous few runs. Let’s hope it’s an outlier ! 

 

When you say “long term”, what sort of time period are you talking about?

Its only the middle of October.....

[Leo97t]

Does anyone know if we got the minimum record last night? 

[Tim Bland]

11 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

When you say “long term”, what sort of time period are you talking about?

Its only the middle of October.....

It wasn’t a winters over post lol. I meant ‘long term’ in the meteorological sense ; which is about 3 -4 weeks. IF you ended up with that synoptic in 2 weeks it would be at least another 2 weeks for anything cold.  Hardly worth discussing though as it was a single run from one model nearly 24hrs ago. 

[Man With Beard]

55 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Does anyone know if we got the minimum record last night? 

Would expect so. St James Park appears to have gone no lower than 19.8.

All change for the final third of the month though, ensembles continue to pull heights back into the Atlantic, much cooler air stream, though not Arctic by any means 

[Froze were the Days]

Day 10 on the ecm 0z before anything appreciably cooler (in the south) with high pressure still noticeable to the south in the run...it seems impossible to shift heights from the south or south east with only brief pm interludes...depressing stuff. GFS 0z isn't much better.

[Froze were the Days]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Would expect so. St James Park appears to have gone no lower than 19.8.

All change for the final third of the month though, ensembles continue to pull heights back into the Atlantic, much cooler air stream, though not Arctic by any means 

I'll believe it when I see it re: high pressure shifting westwards.

[feb1991blizzard]

49 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Would expect so. St James Park appears to have gone no lower than 19.8.

All change for the final third of the month though, ensembles continue to pull heights back into the Atlantic, much cooler air stream, though not Arctic by any means 

I take it surely you mean London and not Newcastle.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, shaky said:

Good for cold?!!crazy warm here this morning!!

Yes, theres a good number at the end that would snow and a couple even to low levels.