Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

[Man With Beard]

However... this D14 control run from the clusters... could allow quite a cold northerly by the last week of October... nearly 50% support too

Hmmm

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The EC 46 is late tonight. anyone got the details please?

 

EDIT : no its not - im getting ahead of myself, thinking we are in November.

Quite a lot of people seem to think it's November in here!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Quite a lot of people seem to think it's November in here!

I don't look at it like there is 4 seasons, to me there is 2, the season where snow is possible lasting around 6 months, the only one worth bothering about, and the closed season.

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Quite a lot of people seem to think it's November in here!

It's October yes,but it's happened before.

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I don't look at it like there is 4 seasons, to me there is 2, the season where snow is possible lasting around 6 months, the only one worth bothering about, and the closed season.

Yep, I too only think there are 2 seasons, and I like both of them, just not awfully keen on the transitions between them, that's all. That's what was great about the Beast from the East, instant transition from winter to summer, now if that could go the other way now, at mid-Autumn, straight flip to winter that would be great.  I think it might take a bit longer though.  Looking to the long range, ECM looks to support a cold first part of winter, CFS doesn't, GloSea5 output today is totally inconclusive, which is an improvement on last month if cold is your thing.  Still lots to mull over before this winter shows its hand. 

Edited October 11, 2018 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

EC46 not only maintains the blocking signal to the NE, it strengthens it compared to last run and draws it nearer by w4 to suggesting there's a significant cluster showing an Easterly, and I have never seen an anomaly at week 6 as strong on this model, a very strong signal for the PV to come under pressure and give us a shot at proper cold very early in the season.

Edited October 11, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

40 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yep, I too only think there are 2 seasons, and I like both of them, just not awfully keen on the transitions between them, that's all. That's what was great about the Beast from the East, instant transition from winter to summer, now if that could go the other way now, at mid-Autumn, straight flip to winter that would be great.  I think it might take a bit longer though.  Looking to the long range, ECM looks to support a cold first part of winter, CFS doesn't, GloSea5 output today is totally inconclusive, which is an improvement on last month if cold is your thing.  Still lots to mull over before this winter shows its hand. 

TBH I think the GLOSEA 5 is poor if your looking for a cold winter.

[Man With Beard]

29 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 not only maintains the blocking signal to the NE, it strengthens it compared to last run and draws it nearer by w4 to suggesting there's a significant cluster showing an Easterly, and I have never seen an anomaly at week 6 as strong on this model, a very strong signal for the PV to come under pressure and give us a shot at proper cold very early in the season.

Here is that week 6 chart

A good early season test to see if the EC is anywhere near the money this year. Last year it wasn't too bad, the year before it was awful! 

BTW I think the anomalies are positioned such that you might just get a mild cluster out of that too - really need lower heights over Europe for cold. 

Voila - the accompanying 850s 

But yes I get your point, it may be a building block to something later. 

Edited October 11, 2018 by Man With Beard

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Here is that week 6 chart

A good early season test to see if the EC is anywhere near the money this year. Last year it wasn't too bad, the year before it was awful! 

Yes, Its unlikely that there would be enough cold pooling on the continent to bring us a March 2018 scenario at that time but if we can get that ridging into the pole consistently throughout November, you would think at some point in the following month, a brutal spell might well be around the corner.

[feb1991blizzard]

Snow for some.

 

Edited October 12, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

winter starts   oct  28  the gfs  in   f1  is  showing SNOW

[bluearmy]

I think that the point about the ec 46 is more that it’s broadly fitting with what the seasonal model has been showing for the run into winter. 

[Scorcher]

I see no evidence from the ECM 00Z this morning that we are heading for a particularly cool second half to the month. Probably more average next week but I can't see anything particularly cool in the offing, even at night. The GFS actually wants to build high pressure more strongly towards the end of the week as well. Temperatures by day probably average to slightly above.

Aside from a few days here and there in August and September, this really has been a remarkable run of warmth for most us since April now. We had our first 20C here on April 18th and we are still threatening 20C going into mid October.

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Snow for some.

 

If that were for mid-November, it'd look reminiscent of 1988. The rest, as they say, is history!

[Newberryone]

Signs of the jet being pushed back slightly north again with the Ecm  00z run again showing heights to the south as we go on into next week deflecting the worst of any wind and rain off to the far northwest. In general, prospects looking far less volatile going forward to what was showing approx two days ago.

[tinybill]

i  know it will not happen   and its fantasy  world how long before  its over the  papers

[Frosty.]

Charts to warm the cockles of a coldies heart from the Gfs 00z operational..turns into a thing of BEAUTY!!! 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

If that were for mid-November, it'd look reminiscent of 1988. The rest, as they say, is history!

Yes, im aware that there is risks wrt later season chances of cold with early season unexpected cold but in this instance, I really think its better to get some attacks on that PV early because if we get to jan with a rampant +NAO, I fear any chances of a proper cold spell will be in early spring as opposed to winter.

 

In fact the only years I can remember a good winter late on after very early season cold is 1995-96 and possibly 93-94

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

I see no evidence from the ECM 00Z this morning that we are heading for a particularly cool second half to the month. Probably more average next week but I can't see anything particularly cool in the offing, even at night. The GFS actually wants to build high pressure more strongly towards the end of the week as well. Temperatures by day probably average to slightly above.

Aside from a few days here and there in August and September, this really has been a remarkable run of warmth for most us since April now. We had our first 20C here on April 18th and we are still threatening 20C going into mid October.

Really?

[Nick F]

Not something you see too often, two ex-Hurricanes approaching SW Europe this weekend, remnant low of Michael fills as it approaches NW Iberia early next week on both 00z EC and GFS, Hurricane Leslie more of a conundrum in that on the National Hurricane Center official track still tracks it east then loops south then west brushing Canaries - whereas latest guidance from EC and GFS take it into Iberia, GFS operational on more northerly track than EC deterministic

[Midlands Ice Age]

41 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Not something you see too often, two ex-Hurricanes approaching SW Europe this weekend, remnant low of Michael fills as it approaches NW Iberia early next week on both 00z EC and GFS, Hurricane Leslie more of a conundrum in that on the National Hurricane Center official track still tracks it east then loops south then west brushing Canaries - whereas latest guidance from EC and GFS take it into Iberia, GFS operational on more northerly track than EC deterministic

!

Nick F..

Interesting...

Lets hope these 2 features don't get it together and deepen rapidly.

A deepening low (as we all know) will move on a more northerly track!.

MIA 

Edited October 12, 2018 by Midlands Ice Age

[Methuselah]

35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, im aware that there is risks wrt later season chances of cold with early season unexpected cold but in this instance, I really think its better to get some attacks on that PV early because if we get to jan with a rampant +NAO, I fear any chances of a proper cold spell will be in early spring as opposed to winter.

 

In fact the only years I can remember a good winter late on after very early season cold is 1995-96 and possibly 93-94

There were both snowfalls and/or freezing fog in November/December 1962, 1969, 1978 and 1985, all of which were followed by memorable events post-Xmas. My point being that all-or-nothing interpretations of what may appear, on the surface, to be viable analogues may in fact be no such thing...? 

My memory ain't what it used to be, feb. But wasn't last year expected to be a 'front-loaded winter'?

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

There were both snowfalls and/or freezing fog in November/December 1962, 1969, 1978 and 1985, all of which were followed by memorable events post-Xmas. My point being that all-or-nothing interpretations of what may appear, on the surface, to be viable analogues may in fact be no such thing...? 

My memory ain't what it used to be, feb. But wasn't last year expected to be a 'front-loaded winter'?

Yes, and I told people that, but you could say that there was heavy snow and double digit -minima in December and the next proper cold didn't really arrive until nearly spring.

[coldwinter]

11 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, Its unlikely that there would be enough cold pooling on the continent to bring us a March 2018 scenario at that time but if we can get that ridging into the pole consistently throughout November, you would think at some point in the following month, a brutal spell might well be around the corner.

Could i have the link for the 46  dayer?  i have lost mine.

Thank you.

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

In fact the only years I can remember a good winter late on after very early season cold is 1995-96 and possibly 93-94

Last year?