Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters continue to suggest something cooler for the final third of October

... but I'm not waxing lyrical about it getting much colder yet, as HLB still looks fairly elusive - much bigger anomalies needed than the ones shown.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean indicates a pretty unsettled outlook, especially further north. There is some ebb and flow of the azores high / ridge and lower heights to the nw / n further ahead but next week looks widely unsettled with lows frequently moving in off the atlantic and looking through the postage stamps, there is some snow potential for higher parts of the north at times and for it to be cold enough at times for frosts during the quieter interludes between atlantic systems and perhaps more so across the south because the south has a higher chance of longer calmer periods beyond next week whereas the further north you are looks breezier / windier and more unsettled generally.☺

Edited October 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 hours ago, Newberryone said:

This was a very brave call BFTP considering the latest Ecm run which I’ve just addressed in my previous post. 

We see how it develops, it wasn’t meant as instantaneous change, let’s see how it pans out

regards

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS FI is an absolute rip-snorter, a stonking ginormous trough dropping into mainland Europe with a destroyed PV and 4 wave pattern.

[Man With Beard]

Even after the year we've had, most bonkers charts of the year award surely goes to this Saturday morning. On the AROME, the nighttime temperature doesn't go below 20 degrees in many places!!!

Would that be the warmest night of the entire year? 

ARPEGE now going for a 26C high in E Anglia on Saturday. Get the BBQ out!

 

[Frosty.]

Wow what a wintry late october on the Gfs 12z operational..yes it's deep FI but it's also a recurring theme so hopefully it's on to something!..snow in october would be fantastic!! 

Edited October 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Even after the year we've had, most bonkers charts of the year award surely goes to this Saturday morning. On the AROME, the nighttime temperature doesn't go below 20 degrees in many places!!!

Would that be the warmest night of the entire year? 

ARPEGE now going for a 26C high in E Anglia on Saturday. Get the BBQ out!

 

No, not here on the south Wales coast anyway, my weather station recorded quite a lot of nights in June and the first half of July when the temperature fell no lower than 20C, there was far more of these muggy nights this Summer than we've had during the last few Summers 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS FI is an absolute rip-snorter, a stonking ginormous trough dropping into mainland Europe with a destroyed PV and 4 wave pattern.

Yes it is and the control is at it as well,i know it's just for fun but they do keep on showing it,strong signal!!!

gfs/control 12z

this mornings 06z para not interested though.

a steady trend to cooler temps from the latest gefs ens

London,my local and scotland

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by Allseasons-si
spell correction and added info

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes it is and the control is at it as well,i know it's just for fun but they do keep on showing it,strong signal!!!

gfs/control 12z

 

 

And p8 brings the -8c isotherm into play.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And p8 brings the -8c isotherm into play.

Indeed..P8 is a cracker!!❄❄❄❄❄

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed..P8 is a cracker!!❄❄❄❄❄

If that verifies, it may even bring my 10c CET forecast back into play even though I had written it off before the month had started.

[Dancerwithwings]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If that verifies, it may even bring my 10c CET forecast back into play even though I had written it off before the month had started.

CET....I'm with ya, looking at the 850's anom your dead right certainly is looking well, well below the average

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

CET....I'm with ya, looking at the 850's anom your dead right certainly is looking well, well below the average

Yes, although I would already be so far out by that stage, it would need a run of days like that to make my original prediction come true.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is a generally unsettled run, especially further north. There is plenty of low pressure separated by weak transient ridging and saturday is the last of the very warm days, beyond that looks much more chilly with only short-lived milder interludes.

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM starting to @CatchMyDrift as well!!!!!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM starting to @CatchMyDrift as well!!!!!!!

Not a bad 240 chart that from the ecm,pv relocated to Siberia on that run with a pocket of height's from Svalbard to Greenland,i would love to of seen a 264hr chart and prob be a stonking one with the Azures high joining up with that HL block to the north,ok i am getting carried away but we all have feelings

[Allseasons-Si]

Ok we have looked at the 500mb preasure charts from the gfs/gefs in fl of which was stonking enough but what i like better is the 500mb geopotential height anomoly's esp the gefs control out to 384.

gfs/control

HLB(high latitude blocking) esp the control but the gfs isn't bad either,atlantic blocked?

some subtile shift's from the latest cpc 500mb outlook 6-10 and 8-14 days with some sort of ridge forming in the atlantic, a cool west to northwesterly and also to note is that there is a trough dropping down into mainland europe down the eastern side of the uk with a block still evident to our east over central east Scandinavia up into Svalbard and into the pole,a day a two ago the cpc outlook was showing a SW'ly regime,how things can change,will this be right,watch this space.

 

 

Edited October 11, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[nick sussex]

3 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Even after the year we've had, most bonkers charts of the year award surely goes to this Saturday morning. On the AROME, the nighttime temperature doesn't go below 20 degrees in many places!!!

Would that be the warmest night of the entire year? 

ARPEGE now going for a 26C high in E Anglia on Saturday. Get the BBQ out!

 

The nighttime temp prediction looks a bit extreme but daytime mid twenties definitely possible .

Some unseasonably warm and moist air being pulled ne ahead of those Atlantic lows. The increase in humidity is very noticeable here and we could hit 30c here  with added fohn effect over the next few days .

I’d be very happy to see a continuation of the warm conditions and then a quick reset  to colder in time for November .

And to think in around 5 weeks the UK then has a realistic chance of its first snow , the year has just flown by , it seems like only yesterday the UK saw that amazing severe cold in March .

Edited October 11, 2018 by nick sussex

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The nighttime temp prediction looks a bit extreme but daytime mid twenties definitely possible .

Some unseasonably warm and moist air being pulled ne ahead of those Atlantic lows. The increase in humidity is very noticeable here and we could hit 30c here  with added fohn effect over the next few days .

I’d be very happy to see a continuation of the warm conditions and then a quick reset  to colder in time for November .

And to think in around 5 weeks the UK then has a realistic chance of its first snow , the year has just flown by , it seems like only yesterday the UK saw that amazing severe cold in March .

Me too nick,there is plenty of time to get the prozak's out lol

wasn't it Nov2009 or 2010 the we had a very warm start then the floodgates opened

i sense the same happening,extremes in weather are happening more and more of late.

BTW,nice to see you come out of hibernation

Edited October 11, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Me too nick,there is plenty of time to get the prozak's out lol

wasn't it Nov2009 or 2010 the we had a very warm start then the floodgates opened

i sense the same happening,extremes in weather are happening more and more of late.

I think last March showed anything is possible . It was crazy seeing sub zero daytime temps then. As for Prozac it’s an essential part of the UK snow lovers survival kit ! Looking forward in terms of tonight’s outputs an early test for the models re that area to the ne .

 

[Methuselah]

I'm sensing a possibility of snow over Scottish mountains, during the extended outlook; some wind, rain and unpleasant temperatures look likely too...I can hardly wait!

[Allseasons-Si]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think last March showed anything is possible . It was crazy seeing sub zero daytime temps then. As for Prozac it’s an essential part of the UK snow lovers survival kit ! Looking forward in terms of tonight’s outputs an early test for the models re that area to the ne .

 

The chemist's are working overtime after last march's sellout lol

my survival kit is on here

great forum and i wouldn't be without you guys

the rollercoaster starts here and i am looking foreward to it

like you say,it's been a pretty quick year(don't know why),maybe the summer has been that good to get outdoors and enjoy the weather and the morale has been good with it.

an exceptional year this year in terms of fine weather,the same next year?

Edited October 11, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm sensing a possibility of snow over Scottish mountains, during the extended outlook; some wind, rain and unpleasant temperatures look likely too...I can hardly wait!

We have to endure the endurance of the atlantic to be paid off with the beast from the east.it's Autumn

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed..P8 is a cracker!!❄❄❄❄❄

Frosty have you done our annual flip from "heat seeker" to "coldie" yet? I'm still just about in heat mode - can't see my serious chances of early season cold, ensembles are generally a bit too flat, but any more ensembles like this one and I think I might be ready for my personal "flip" too

[feb1991blizzard]

The EC 46 is late tonight. anyone got the details please?

 

EDIT : no its not - im getting ahead of myself, thinking we are in November.

Edited October 11, 2018 by feb1991blizzard