Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

[feb1991blizzard]

Here comes the slide.

-5c line added within a couple of weeks.

[feb1991blizzard]

below average temperatures.

[jethro]

3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

below average temperatures.

That would be a shock to the system. This year seems to have been one of extremes, instead of the usual gradual switch of seasons, we've jumped from one straight into the other. Just imagine if the summer on steroids we've had is matched equally by winter.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

8 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here comes the slide.

-5c line added within a couple of weeks.

The 0z looks a bit warmer. Does anyone have the ensembles for that ? Suspect it would be on the warm side.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The 0z looks a bit warmer. Does anyone have the ensembles for that ? Suspect it would be on the warm side.

ens come out in a bit in graph form - already out un weather us

[Jordan S]

36 minutes ago, jethro said:

That would be a shock to the system. This year seems to have been one of extremes, instead of the usual gradual switch of seasons, we've jumped from one straight into the other. Just imagine if the summer on steroids we've had is matched equally by winter.

It certainly wouldn’t be out of the question this year has been unusual so far to say the least.

[Froze were the Days]

God! watching the ECM model (last few months really) of late is depressing, in general just the same theme occurring  with slight variations - high pressure prevalent on the continent (to the south and east) and now an ever present area of high pressure near Eastern Europe/Western Russia which basically acts as a buffer for the jet to run on a ssw/nne or sw/ne line. Coldest scenarios tend to occur when we do get a westerly with a slight ridge of high pressure to our south west and a brief Pm air mass from a north westerly or westerly. If this continues for any length of time it's going take something to cool the nearby continent down.

All in all real desperate stuff...please please let there be more of a pattern change.

Edited October 9, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[mb018538]

50 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

God! watching the ECM model (last few months really) of late is depressing, in general just the same theme occurring  with slight variations - high pressure prevalent on the continent (to the south and east) and now an ever present area of high pressure near Eastern Europe/Western Russia which basically acts as a buffer for the jet to run on a ssw/nne or sw/ne line. Coldest scenarios tend to occur when we do get a westerly with a slight ridge of high pressure to our south west and a brief Pm air mass from a north westerly or westerly. If this continues for any length of time it's going take something to cool the nearby continent down.

All in all real desperate stuff...please please let there be more of a pattern change.

It is only early October! Fear not. Nothing untoward in the upcoming weather patterns to be honest, just typical autumn fayre once the next few days pass.



This sort of pattern is one you don't want to generally see too much of though, big ridge over the western USA, trough over the east of the continent, strong thermal gradient off the eastern seaboard = strong jet and low pressure heading our way. This will get more pronounced as the arctic airmass expands over the next 4 months.....let's hope we get something spectacular!

Edited October 9, 2018 by mb018538

[mb018538]

Unusual to see so much disagreement even at 5 days out:



By day 10 it's much clearer though - pretty unsettled all the way:



Nothing suggesting any quick return to settled conditions, so prepare for some typical autumnal weather through the middle of the month.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Got our 1st Gefs member showing snow on today’s Gefs 6z run

[Froze were the Days]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

It is only early October! Fear not. Nothing untoward in the upcoming weather patterns to be honest, just typical autumn fayre once the next few days pass.



This sort of pattern is one you don't want to generally see too much of though, big ridge over the western USA, trough over the east of the continent, strong thermal gradient off the eastern seaboard = strong jet and low pressure heading our way. This will get more pronounced as the arctic airmass expands over the next 4 months.....let's hope we get something spectacular!

Nothing untoward? not sure how many October's you have experienced...Well we'll see but the country and particularly the south and south east seem continually (other than the odd day) tends to be stuck in warm continental or tropical maritime air a fair percentage of the time. As you say looking to become more unsettled mid-month but I wonder if that will result in colder conditions or as we all know 'near normal temperatures'.

Edited October 9, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[mb018538]

It’s been lovely here for sure, I just don’t think there's any real correlation between the weather now and what we will get in the middle of winter. In fact I’d probably be slightly more optimistic as we’ve had a complete lack of zonal dominated weather since that ssw!

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

It’s been lovely here for sure, I just don’t think there's any real correlation between the weather now and what we will get in the middle of winter. In fact I’d probably be slightly more optimistic as we’ve had a complete lack of zonal dominated weather since that ssw!

I wan't talking about the correlation between the weather now and what might happen in the winter more the fact the pattern hasn't changed much since May (a slight shift southwards of heights since early August) but that's about it. Looking for a big cool down on the continent in the month ahead...

At a certain latitude the Atlantic has been quite active this summer/early autumn...60/65 degrees or so

Edited October 9, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[jules216]

There is an Eastern Asian mountain torque event happening right now which will flip the pattern in north america that has persisted most of the summer and early autumn courtesy of pacific jet extension and a split jet at eastern side of north america. This may have subsequent effect on the Atlantic jet, unfortunately I am not skilled enough yet to predict what effect these EAMT events have on the long range circulation in our vicinity, for this I desperately need insight from likes of Tamara,GP,Lorenzo or Chionomaniac to explain it in layman terms, unfortunately non of them has posted for long time which is a pity.

 

 

[Downpour]

4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

It’s been lovely here for sure, I just don’t think there's any real correlation between the weather now and what we will get in the middle of winter. In fact I’d probably be slightly more optimistic as we’ve had a complete lack of zonal dominated weather since that ssw!

Indeed so. Enjoy the Indian summer and think of winter would be my advice. The weather in October has zero correlation with that in January. 

[Jimmyh]

I would like to ask a question. I don't remember such a strong block to our east for such a long time that is deflecting what seems like every weather system that tries to get in from the Atlantic. It seems that the east and northeast and central areas have stayed away from the wind and rain for weeks bar a single days influence. Is there a particular reason for this stubborn blocking high. 

[Frosty.]

It takes a while, the atlantic huffs and puffs and eventually blows the house down by T+240 hours on the Ecm 12z. That block to the east is very strong and fights really hard but eventually those heights are shunted further east and it becomes much more unsettled nationwide.

[Newberryone]

15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It takes a while, the atlantic huffs and puffs and eventually blows the house down by T+240 hours on the Ecm 12z. That block to the east is very strong and fights really hard but eventually those heights are shunted further east and it becomes much more unsettled nationwide.

Perhaps I'm wrong Frosty, but I think I detect a certain sign of excitement from this post. If so, I'm with you all the way on this one for I believe things have been static for long enough.

[jules216]

47 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It takes a while, the atlantic huffs and puffs and eventually blows the house down by T+240 hours on the Ecm 12z. That block to the east is very strong and fights really hard but eventually those heights are shunted further east and it becomes much more unsettled nationwide.

I would like to see the blocking high completely flatten and the pattern re-set, that is a very poorly placed subtropical high for any wave braking or retrogression to high lats, there is no way those atlantic lows will undercut and it is preventing the siberian snow advancement to gain any westerly momentum, if this pattern exists at the end of november then id get nervous

[Leo97t]

Very good chance of the October record minimum High going over the next few days

[Jordan S]

I Thought it would be good if I could share 3 Weather charts with you about the potential storm on Friday I will show the GFS,ARPEGE and ICON and will give you my best forecast as to what I think will be the most likely outcome I will start with The GFS For 6am on Friday morning..

So for 6am GFS show Wind Gusts along the Irish Sea of 65 to 75mph 80mph locally with Gusts of around 55 to 60mph for the far West of Wales and Southwest England, Gusts of around 60mph are shown for much of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

By 9am Gusts are mostly in the 60mph bracket for much of Western Scotland, Southern Scotland the far NorthWest of England and much of the Irish Sea for the rest of the Midlands and east Wales 50mph seems likely with Gusts for South East England and East Anglia mainly around 30 to 35mph.

As we go through the day the worst of the Winds transfer northwards with winds easing much of Ireland and England and Wales but for the far North of England gusts of 60mph are shown along with much of Scotland with a particular swathe of Damaging winds just off to the west of Scotland with 80mph being progged.

Next is the ARPEGE Model for roughly the same timeframe as the GFS..

This is the Arpege for 4am which shows the storm arriving a little earlier showing Gusts for Irish Sea of around 70mph and 60mph for much of Ireland..

Then as we go Through the course of Friday winds are shown the spread further eastwards effecting more of England and Wales than the GFS does with Gusts across Central, Southern England aswell as Wales of 40 to 45mph with a swathe of severe wind Gusts pushing through the west of Ireland and Northern Ireland where they may get to 70mph possibly 80mph then as we progress through the rest of the afternoon the worst of the winds will be in Scotland with everywhere seeing atleast 60mph but for the Western Isles Gusts of over 75mph is possible these effect the far west mainland of Scotland too before easing into the evening.

If the arpege was to come to fruition I would expect quite a lot of travel disruption some Trees blown down and minor structural damage mainly in the above mentioned areas but even further south for Wales and South west England some damage and disruption would be possible.

Lastly but not least the Icon Model which is probably the worst case scenario again I will show the expected wind gusts from 6am onwards on Friday..

This Model is bringing the system in substantially more powerful than the other two with 80 to 85mph being shown for much of the Irish Sea and close to 70mph for the far West of Wales and SouthWest England also widespread winds of 60mph or 70mph for Ireland and Northern Ireland..

Through the Morning on Friday the Icon is showing very Stormy conditions for Western Ireland the Irish Sea and much of West Wales, Northern England and South West England with gusts of 60 to 70mph but for much of Northern Ireland into Western Scotland Gusts of 80 to 90mph are shown and for the Western isles possibly in excess of 100mph during the afternoon transferring to the far North before clearing away but for all of Scotland 60 to 70mph is shown over 80mph locally particularly on hills.

If the Icon came to fruition then widespread damage and disruption would be likely for many Northern and Western areas but particularly Ireland Northern Ireland and much of Scotland facing the brunt of particularly vicious gusts of winds.

So I’ve shown them and with all the charts and data available at the time I believe  Icon to be the closest Although it must be stressed I don’t think this storm will be quite as powerful as the Icon is showing but equally I think the gfs and arpege are underdoing this system a little and I expect slight upgrades in the next day or so.

I hope this was easy to read and ofcourse this is my thinking I may be wrong and I thought for the people that don’t know what is being shown for Friday that I would give a detailed analysis of it, details will change. Any questions are welcome and if you don’t agree with what I’ve posted then you are entitled to your opinion and I can take it on board. ⛈

 

 

Edited October 9, 2018 by jordan smith
Mistake

[CameronWS]

2 hours ago, jordan smith said:

I Thought it would be good if I could share 3 Weather charts with you about the potential storm on Friday I will show the GFS,ARPEGE and ICON and will give you my best forecast as to what I think will be the most likely outcome I will start with The GFS For 6am on Friday morning..

So for 6am GFS show Wind Gusts along the Irish Sea of 65 to 75mph 80mph locally with Gusts of around 55 to 60mph for the far West of Wales and Southwest England, Gusts of around 60mph are shown for much of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

By 9am Gusts are mostly in the 60mph bracket for much of Western Scotland, Southern Scotland the far NorthWest of England and much of the Irish Sea for the rest of the Midlands and east Wales 50mph seems likely with Gusts for South East England and East Anglia mainly around 30 to 35mph.

As we go through the day the worst of the Winds transfer northwards with winds easing much of Ireland and England and Wales but for the far North of England gusts of 60mph are shown along with much of Scotland with a particular swathe of Damaging winds just off to the west of Scotland with 80mph being progged.

Next is the ARPEGE Model for roughly the same timeframe as the GFS..

This is the Arpege for 4am which shows the storm arriving a little earlier showing Gusts for Irish Sea of around 70mph and 60mph for much of Ireland..

Then as we go Through the course of Friday winds are shown the spread further eastwards effecting more of England and Wales than the GFS does with Gusts across Central, Southern England aswell as Wales of 40 to 45mph with a swathe of severe wind Gusts pushing through the west of Ireland and Northern Ireland where they may get to 70mph possibly 80mph then as we progress through the rest of the afternoon the worst of the winds will be in Scotland with everywhere seeing atleast 60mph but for the Western Isles Gusts of over 75mph is possible these effect the far west mainland of Scotland too before easing into the evening.

If the arpege was to come to fruition I would expect quite a lot of travel disruption some Trees blown down and minor structural damage mainly in the above mentioned areas but even further south for Wales and South west England some damage and disruption would be possible.

Lastly but not least the Icon Model which is probably the worst case scenario again I will show the expected wind gusts from 6am onwards on Friday..

This Model is bringing the system in substantially more powerful than the other two with 80 to 85mph being shown for much of the Irish Sea and close to 70mph for the far West of Wales and SouthWest England also widespread winds of 60mph or 70mph for Ireland and Northern Ireland..

Through the Morning on Friday the Icon is showing very Stormy conditions for Western Ireland the Irish Sea and much of West Wales, Northern England and South West England with gusts of 60 to 70mph but for much of Northern Ireland into Western Scotland Gusts of 80 to 90mph are shown and for the Western isles possibly in excess of 100mph during the afternoon transferring to the far North before clearing away but for all of Scotland 60 to 70mph is shown over 80mph locally particularly on hills.

If the Icon came to fruition then widespread damage and disruption would be likely for many Northern and Western areas but particularly Ireland Northern Ireland and much of Scotland facing the brunt of particularly vicious gusts of winds.

So I’ve shown them and with all the charts and data available at the time I believe  Icon to be the closest Although it must be stressed I don’t think this storm will be quite as powerful as the Icon is showing but equally I think the gfs and arpege are underdoing this system a little and I expect slight upgrades in the next day or so.

I hope this was easy to read and ofcourse this is my thinking I may be wrong and I thought for the people that don’t know what is being shown for Friday that I would give a detailed analysis of it, details will change. Any questions are welcome and if you don’t agree with what I’ve posted then you are entitled to your opinion and I can take it on board. ⛈

 

 

Slightly confused by this approaching system because all the models look pretty bad for my area, west of Scotland, but the met office are only predicting 44 mph gusts.

[Jordan S]

2 hours ago, CameronWS said:

Slightly confused by this approaching system because all the models look pretty bad for my area, west of Scotland, but the met office are only predicting 44 mph gusts.

I wouldn’t take that too seriously wind gusts are very likely to be much more than that come Friday Daytime just keep following the model outputs and ask people in here for updates if you need them but they are all showing a potential storm on Friday. Hope that helps!

[Paul_1978]

13 hours ago, jules216 said:

....... for this I desperately need insight from likes of Tamara,GP,Lorenzo or Chionomaniac to explain it in layman terms, unfortunately non of them has posted for long time which is a pity.

 

 

They will be back as we approach the winter I’m sure

[Badgers01]

The rain fall potential might be more noteworthy than the wind for some areas such as the Lake District - upwards of 6 inches of rain  from oragraphic forcing off a trailing front stretching all the way back to the southern Atlantic.